Obamacare is still not a done deal
Bart Stupak is quoted in National Review as saying he will vote no if he is presented with the Senate bill. He also says that he has talked with many others in the House who are completely opposed to all the bribery deals done in the Senate. With public opinion swinging harder and harder against the bill, Congressman Griffith switching to the GOP, and President Obama’s poll numbers sinking like the Titanic, all the momentum is on our side. I think we have at least a one in three chance of defeating the bill. Whatever emerges from the conference committee is likely to provide some nervous Democrats with the justification for deciding to vote no.
UPDATE: We may have won a partial victory for now. This is huge. President Obama wanted to brag about the bill’s passage by the State of the Union, which is why Harry Reid kept the Senate in session through Christmas Eve. A delay gives us even more time to convince nervous Democrats that we mean business. The closer this vote gets to November 2, the more votes we’ll get. I would say that this makes it an almost even money proposition.
UPDATE: Ramesh Ponnuru agrees with me over at National Review.
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As was the case in August, Reid is determined for the Senate to vote on this thing before they adjourn for Christmas. But all members of Congress will face their constituents before the joint chambers reconcile the differences. Our only hope is to make our wishes crystal clear while they are home.
As you noted in another post this morning, this is analogous to the Alamo, and none of the defenders of the Alamo left that fight alive. We need to be equally committed.
Your lips to God's ears, Ryan. I just don't think Pelosi and Reid will let this thing get away from them this close to the finish line.
In six weeks we'll have to be selling "Abort Obamacare" t-shirts.
Scott, neither Reid nor Pelosi has the votes to pass the other's bill. I'm with you in that I think it is likely they will still find a way to get it done, but this is not Goliad or the Alamo or Thermopylae. We are not necessarily in the position of fighting a doomed battle. Our situation is more like Cannae or Agincourt, where a much smaller army has a chance if it can seize the terrain and outmanoeuver the enemy. We do have a chance in this fight.
Goliad? What district does he represent?
Seriously, I expect a little bloodletting, and it could be healthy, but the masacres will come in 2010 and 2012.
This bill reminds me of the 500-pound fat guy who's gotten so morbidly obese that he's naked in his bedroom (because his clothes are too small for him now) and can't leave because he can't fit through the door. And the fat guy has Harry Reid pushing him from inside the bedroom and Nancy Pelosi pulling him into the hallway, with Obama greasing him up to try to slide him through the doorway.
Maybe they'll get him out that doorway, maybe they won't. Either way, he's gonna break that doorframe. The American people are that doorframe.
I just hope we don't have Goliad on the conference vote.