This afternoon, as the House began preparations for a vote on the job-killing CLEAR Act, which the Congressional Budget Office incidentally estimates will bring about some $14 billion in litigation costs, dramatics ensued when Louisiana’s lone House Democrat put forth an amendment purporting to lift the deepwater moratorium that the rest of the delegation strenuously rejected as far too weak.

The CLEAR Act passed the House by a 209-193 vote this afternoon.

Rep. Charlie Melancon’s amendment  is described as imposing ”certain limits on the federal moratorium on deepwater drilling.  The moratorium would not apply to applications for permits to drill if the applicant has met safety requirements set forth in the National Notice to Leases dated June 8, 2010, and June 18, 2010.   The Secretary of Interior would have to make a decision on whether an applicant has complied within 30 days.”

Melancon’s amendment was panned by the state’s House Republicans. Rep. Bill Cassidy said he’ll vote against the amendment, while Reps. Steve Scalise and Charles Boustany spoke on the floor against it. That led Louisiana Democrat Party spokesman Kevin Franck to put forth the following release:

BREAKING: Louisiana Republican’s Set to Vote AGAINST Melancon Amendment to Lift Moratorium
On the House floor a few minutes ago Reps. Scalise and Boustany spoke in OPPOSITION to Charlie Melancon’s amendment to lift to moratorium on off-shore drilling. Melancon’s amendment is nearly identical to an amendment (S. 3588) introduced in the Senate by David Vitter. Developing…

What Franck didn’t mention is that Melancon’s amendment wasn’t so identical to legislation offered by his opponent in this fall’s Senate race. Vitter’s Senate amendment is S. 3588, which reads:

A BILL

To limit the moratorium on certain permitting and drilling activities issued by the Secretary of the Interior, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. LIMITATION ON MORATORIUM ON CERTAIN PERMITTING AND DRILLING ACTIVITIES.

(a) In General- The moratorium set forth in the decision memorandum of the Secretary of the Interior entitled ‘Decision memorandum regarding the suspension of certain offshore permitting and drilling activities on the Outer Continental Shelf’ and dated July 12, 2010, and any suspension of operations issued in connection with the moratorium, shall not apply to an applicant for a permit to drill if the Secretary determines that the applicant–

(1) has complied with the notice entitled ‘National Notice to Lessees and Operators of Federal Oil and Gas Leases, Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)’ dated June 8, 2010 (NTL No. 2010-N05) and the notice entitled ‘National Notice to Lessees and Operators of Federal Oil and Gas Leases, Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)’ dated June 18, 2010 (NTL No. 2010-N06); and

(2) has completed all required safety inspections.

(b) Determination on Permit- Not later than 30 days after the date on which the Secretary makes a determination that an applicant has complied with paragraphs (1) and (2) of subsection (a), the Secretary shall make a determination on whether to issue the permit.

Franck is correct as to the fact that Vitter’s section A and B are identical. But Melancon’s amendment has a good bit more to it. The amendment doesn’t just have an A and B. It has more sections, including a Section F, which reads:

“Nothing herein affects the Secretary’s authority to suspend offshore drilling permitting and drilling operations based on the threat of signficant, irreparable or immediate harm or damage to life, property, or to the marine, coastal or human environment pursuant to the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act.”  

Melancon’s release upon his amendment’s passage this afternoon (he declared it a “bi-partisan” vote, but only three Republicans voted for it on a 216-195 tally) said this:

The Melancon amendment would lift the deepwater moratorium on offshore drilling for companies that meet the new safety requirements issued by the Department of the Interior in the wake of the explosion. Specifically, if an application for a permit to drill complies with the “Notice to Lessees” 5 and 6, complies with any further safety measures recommended by the Secretary, and has completed all required safety inspections, the moratorium will not apply to the drilling application.

The Melancon amendment will also work to prevent another disaster from occurring and ensure companies are better able to respond to oil spills. The Secretary of the Interior will be required to report by October 31st to the House Committee on Natural Resources and the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on the status of:

(1) the collection and analysis of evidence regarding the potential causes of the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig, including information collected by the Presidential Commission and other investigations,

(2) implementation of safety reforms announced by the Department of the Interior on May 27th,

(3) the ability of operators in the Gulf of Mexico to respond effectively to an oil spill in light of the Deepwater Horizon incident; and

(4) industry and government efforts to engineer, design, construct and assemble wild well intervention and blowout containment resources necessary to contain an uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons in deep water, should another blowout occur.

Melancon also gave a floor speech in support of his amendment, which in part read as follows:

The tragedy on Deepwater opened our eyes to the need for tougher safety standards for offshore drilling. For the need to strengthen the enforcement of both new and existing laws. And, for the need to protect workers who report their companies’ dangerous, and even illegal practices, to regulators, so that we can stop another accident before it happens.

But, an indiscriminate, blanket moratorium punishes the innocent along with the guilty for the actions and the poor judgment of one reckless company. If a rig meets all of the tough new safety requirements issued by the Department of the Interior, if it has been fully inspected and deemed safe, why should it sit idle – and the workers of that rig go jobless – until the arbitrary six month period is over?

People in Louisiana understand that this doesn’t make sense. Louisianians want more than anyone to prevent another disaster from happening in our waters. But, the irresponsible decisions and dangerous actions of one company shouldn’t shut down an entire sector of our economy, sending thousands of workers to the unemployment line. We need to fix the problems that led to this disaster in the Gulf, without paralyzing America’s domestic energy industry in the process.

That’s what my amendment does. Instead of a blanket moratorium, my amendment would allow drilling permits to be approved for those rigs that meet the new, tougher safety requirements issued by the Department of the Interior in the wake of the explosion.

Those 31 stalled drilling rigs directly employ some 1,400 workers. Hundreds of small businesses in Louisiana service those rigs, or, are in some way supported by the offshore oil and gas industry. According to research by Dr. Joseph Mason of Louisiana State University, under the current six-month moratorium, the Gulf Coast region will lose more than 8,000 jobs, nearly $500 million in wages, and over $2.1 billion in economic activity, as well as nearly $100 million it state and local tax revenue. And, that’s only if the drilling will start back immediately in 6 months.

But, you don’t need to be an economist to see the impact of the moratorium on south Louisiana. You just need to drive through coastal parishes like Lafourche and Terrebonne or to Grand Isle. Talk to people like Shelly Landry, who owns and operates her family’s grocery store on Grand Isle, who told me with tears in her eyes that the moratorium was shutting down the coast, hurting her business more than the actual oil spill. People like Ms. Landry are still learning to cope with the impact of the oil disaster, and now they feel they are being dealt a second blow – this time by their government.

Louisiana has a working coast, where people make good paychecks producing the domestic energy that drives our nation. They want to get back to work, doing jobs they love, jobs that provide a good life for their families.

But after that speech, Scalise and Boustany both slammed the amendment as insufficient to end the moratorium. Scalise took special exception to Section F, as did Boustany. In fact, after the two Louisiana Republicans expressed objection, Melancon retook the floor and asked for unanimous consent to revise his amendment to satisfy their concerns. Republican Doc Hastings objected, and the amendment was voted on. Melancon appeared visibly shaken while making the request; C-SPAN video of the exchange shows a staffer putting something in front of him. It almost appeared as though he wasn’t aware of what was in his own amendment.

And the amendment’s protections against arbitrary and dishonest action from Interior Secretary Ken Salazar are meager – as we saw above with Section F, they’re nonexistent - which is why the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association isn’t crazy about Melancon’s amendment at all. In fact, LOGA had this to say about it:

The Louisiana Oil & Gas Association strongly opposes this amendment to the CLEAR Act, which is soon to be up for debate. While the title of this amendment perceives to lift the ban on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, it in fact will grant overarching authority to the Secretary of the Interior.

Concerns center around “Clause B – Determination of Permit” located on page 2 of the amendment. As it is written, this language would grant the Secretary the authority to “make a determination on whether to issue” a permit. We believe a better structuring of this section should read that if an applicant complies with paragraphs (1), (2) and (3) of subsection (a) the Secretary shall issue the permit.

In addition, we remain concerned regarding “Clause F” within the amendment, the “Savings Clause” located on page 3, lines 12-18 – We have concerns that this may codify the Secretary’s authority to suspend offshore drilling permitting and drilling operations. It is our position that the Secretary does not have the right to do so.

The Administration is taking the position that the moratorium is simply based on safety concerns. It is our position that applicants who apply for a permit and meet the proper safety requirement should be issued a permit. Although this language cannot be changed at this time, it is LOGA’s position that this legislation not pass as an amendment to the CLEAR Act.

The long and short of the passage of both Melancon’s amendment and the CLEAR Act as a whole is that a terrible bill has passed and thanks to Melancon’s amendment, which also passed, the law would now codify Ken Salazar’s ability to turn drilling on and off at will. If nothing else, this is an open invitation to corruption, as companies like BP who have already shown their willingness to buy politicians will be incentivized to bribe their way into the Gulf.

Cassidy wasn’t done making moves in his own right. In fact, the House GOP leadership has put his amendment to unconditionally lift the moratorium – which was beaten in a 26-22 committee vote two weeks ago thanks to the “no” votes of five “non-voting” delegates from Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Northern Mariana Islands – forth once again as a Motion To Recommit.

Cassidy’s speech in favor of the motion to recommit was a spirited one…

In the aftermath of today’s debacle, Vitter put out a release trashing Melancon’s amendment:

“This amendment is nothing more than sleight of hand, otherwise it would have never gotten the vote of staunch drilling opponent Nancy Pelosi.  The meat and potatoes of the Melancon amendment keeps all the authority for drilling permits in the hands of the Obama administration who have made clear that they are putting politics ahead of sound policy,” said Vitter.  “I supported the rest of the delegation’s effort to defeat this amendment and wholeheartedly supported the alternative proposal by Rep. Scalise that would have immediately lifted this moratorium that is crushing Louisiana’s economy.”

Vitter’s release brought out more vitriol from Franck, who e-mailed this to Chad Rogers of The Dead Pelican…

Haha. Joke’s on you. The LA Oil and Gas Association’s main objection is to language that is identical to Vitter’s moratorium amendment. What’s next? Is Vitter going to run radio ads attacking himself?

As said above, to an extent Franck has a point – LOGA wasn’t crazy about Vitter’s amendment. But Scalise and Boustany both expressed objections to Section F, not Section B, and any reading of the amendment would reveal that the statutory power given Salazar makes everything else in the amendment purporting to end the moratorium meaningless. And that would call into severe question Franck’s credibility.

Meanwhile, another amendment to the CLEAR Act actually did succeed. Rep. John Fleming (R-Shreveport) managed to get some protections against the EPA taking over regulation of hydraulic fracturing in the natural gas industry.
 
“In Committee, the CLEAR Act was decorated like a Christmas tree with various items unrelated to the oil spill, one of which was the effort to require a leaseholder to disclose on a public website, proprietary information about hydraulic fracturing,” said Fleming.  “There is no doubt that this language was the first step in the liberals’ effort to have the natural gas industry fully regulated by the EPA – something that natural gas producing states, such as Louisiana, see as an intrusion into their authority and regulation.”
 
“An EPA takeover of the natural gas industry would stifle development, destroy jobs and reduce our supply of clean, natural gas, all at a time when our country needs more energy and more jobs,” continued Fleming. “I thank my colleagues from both sides of the aisle who supported this important effort.”

As the unfortunate process of moving the CLEAR Act – which would restrict oil and gas exploration through a series of harmful regulations and new taxes – toward a floor vote in the House of Representatives continues, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi took a step yesterday to carry water for President Obama and against the people of the Gulf Coast who are asking for an independent, bi-partisan investigation of what happened to the Deepwater Horizon and what should be done to keep it from happening again.

An amendment to the CLEAR Act which would have established such a commission was offered in the House Natural Resources Committee by Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge), and it passed through committee on a unanimous vote. But things went south from there. As Connie Hair of HUMAN EVENTS reports:

The Natural Resources Committee unanimously passed the amendment in committee markup July 14 offered by Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) that would establish a bipartisan, independent, National Commission on Outer Continental Shelf Oil Spill Prevention.

Unlike the commission set up by President Obama — packed only with environmental activists and no petroleum engineers — the commission unanimously approved by the Natural Resources committee would be comprised of technical experts to study the actual events leading up to the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Not a single member of the committee voiced opposition at the bill’s markup.  The Senate has also approved an independent commission.

“To investigate what went wrong and keep it from happening again, the commission must include members who have expertise in petroleum engineering.  The President’s Commission has none,” Cassidy, the amendment’s author, told HUMAN EVENTS after the announcement.  “It defies common sense that this amendment passed unanimously in committee, only to be deleted in the Speaker’s office.”

Rep. Doc Hastings (R-Wash.), top Republican on the Natural Resources Committee said the Obama’s administration’s commission was set up to protect the President.

“By deleting the bipartisan, independent oil spill commission that’s received bipartisan support in both House and Senate committees, Democrats have shown they are more interested in protecting the President than getting independent answers to what caused this tragic Gulf spill.  Some of the biggest failures that contributed to the Gulf disaster are the direct responsibility of the federal government and by deleting this bipartisan, independent commission, Democrats ensure that only the President’s hand-picked commission will be digging into any failures of his own Interior Department appointees.  There is widespread agreement that no member of the President’s commission possesses technical expertise in oil drilling, and several are on the record in opposition to offshore drilling and support a moratorium that will cost thousands of jobs,” Hastings said.

Why would Pelosi have been opposed to such a commission? Now that the spill has largely been contained and its response can begin to focus on cleaning up the damage, it would seem the next step is to come to a common agreement as to what happened on the Deepwater Horizon and how it should be prevented.

But Pelosi knocked the legs off that smart approach. Instead, we’ll see a bill which punishes the oil and gas industry go through the House along a partisan vote, we’ll only have a hand-picked Obama commission full of left-wing environmentalist kooks and Soros stooges to assign blame for the spill and we’ll see the spectacle of the administration holding out passage of the CLEAR Act as his price for lifting the moratorium.

Rep. John Fleming (R-Shreveport), whose district includes the Haynesville Shale natural gas field - the development of which will be impacted by this bill, told HUMAN EVENTS this is nothing but politics.

“This ‘fix it’ bill is being rammed through without an accurate and full understanding of what actually went wrong. The Presidential Commission is just barely beginning its work, no investigations are yet concluded, and the failed [blowout preventer] still on the ocean floor, yet we are voting on a bill without knowing what went wrong,” Fleming said. 

“Furthermore, at a time when Washington should be focused on creating jobs, this bill will do just the opposite by hampering future energy development and stifling job creation along the Gulf Coast,” Fleming added.  “This knee-jerk legislation — coupled with the Administration’s damaging Moratorium on offshore drilling — will worsen, not help, the situation.”

One way or the other, though, the truth will eventually come out. For example, a lawsuit in federal court in New Orleans alleges that fire teams responding to the blaze aboard the Deepwater Horizon flooded the rig and destabilized it, which caused it to sink and commenced the oil spill. If that is proven, it’s possible that the Coast Guard could be complicit in the economic damages the spill has caused – or perhaps more importantly, that proper procedure to handle future offshore blowouts will be refined.

Items like this are unlikely to be addressed by a hand-picked presidential commission. They might have been addressed by a commission such as the one proposed by Cassidy.

“This bill has less to do with preventing another spill than it does preventing domestic energy production,” Cassidy said.

In this update: Vitter’s weekend of “teeing it high and letting it fly,” taking a look at the financial disclosures in the state’s Congressional races, and the media attention coming out of Butch Gautreaux’s Lieutenant Governor bid.

VITTER LETS ‘EM HAVE IT: On Friday, Sen. David Vitter was on Rush Radio WRNO-FM in New Orleans, a conservative talk station, discussing various political items, and got into an exchange on the subject of uber-lefty MSNBC host Rachel Maddow – whose mannish appearance has been the source of much commentary on the Right. The exchange was a rather lighthearted one, but it generated some controversy relatively immediately after the Senator quipped, in response to a reference to old pictures of Maddow which show her to be considerably more feminine than she currently is, that “it must have been a long time ago.”

The exchange, transcribed by the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent, went like this:

MALE HOST: I wonder if Senator Vitter is ever going to post, like, maybe the video of the first time he was on the floor of the Senate. If I have to show the way I looked the first time I was on TV, you should do that too.

VITTER: We should go further back than that, how about high school yearbook?

MALE HOST: Oh yeah.

VITTER: De La Salle marching band.

MALE HOST: That’d be cool. Well you know, with Rachel Maddow they had that picture of her…

FEMALE HOST: Looking like a woman.

MALE HOST: Yeah it was really bizarre.

VITTER: [LAUGHS]: Must have been a long time ago.

ALL THREE: [HEAVY LAUGHTER]

Vitter sent Maddow a note of apology on Friday:

Dear Rachel,

Regarding my remark during a radio conversation today, I apologize.

The hosts made their comment and I obviously chimed in. While we do not usually agree on the issues, I do not think you deserved that comment.

Sincerely,

David

But Vitter has not apologized for another quip he shot forth on Sunday. The latter one took place during his appearance on Fox News Sunday, when the Senator accused the Obama administration of trying to move the Gulf Oil Spill “off the front page” instead of actually handling it.

 ”I’m afraid he’s decided to deal with this issue, at least politically, by not coming back here and trying to move it off the front page rather than dealing with the situation forcefully,” Vitter said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“He was coming here on a pretty regular basis. … He hasn’t done that in Louisiana since June 4. That’s personally disappointing to me.”

No word on either subject from either Vitter’s opponent, Congressman Charlie Melancon, or the Louisiana Democrat Party. Both usually seize on everything the Senator says, but so far they’ve been silent.

THE MONEY: After last week’s 2nd quarter campaign financial disclosures, some interesting analysis has come about and it’s beginning to look like relative newcomer Jeff Landry is in a rather commanding position in the most wide-open race in the state, the 3rd District House race.

Landry’s current stash of $379,000 puts him in a very strong position in comparison to his competitors – Hunt Downer on the GOP side and Democrat Ravi Sangisetty. Downer, despite a late start, claimed an impressive $279,000 in receipts against $35,000 in expenses and holds $244,000 on hand, while Landry has raised $495,000 and spent $116,000.

Sangisetty, however, claimed the greatest fundraising haul – $544,000. But he’s only got $283,000, due to the fact that the Democrat spent $261,000 without even having a primary opponent. That’s an extremely high burn rate under the circumstances, and reports that Sangisetty  spent $35,000 to commission a poll from an outfit from Florida last month (the results of which the campaign did not publicize, which isn’t a good sign) indicate the fiscal discipline might not be what the textbooks would call for.

Of course, the cash is flying in furious fashion in the other contested House race – that being the one in the 2nd District. Incumbent Joseph Cao is the raise-and-spend champion among the state’s congressional candidates, having reeled in $1.402 million so far and spent $1.042 million, with $359,000 on hand. Cao doesn’t have a GOP challenger, so he’ll await the results of the primary between Cedric Richmond (raised $493,000, spent $241,000, $250,000 on hand) and Juan LaFonta (raised $253,000, spent $223,000, $30,000 on hand).

The only other race set for a contest on Nov. 2 is the 4th District contest in North Louisiana. Incumbent Republican John Fleming has raised a healthy $1.16 million and spent $732,000 so far, with $433,000 on hand. Fleming’s likely Democrat challenger David Melville, a Baptist minister, has raised $77,000, $76,000 of which he still has on hand.

(Source: OpenSecrets.org)

GAUTREAUX GETTING PUBLICITY, SAYS MORATORIUM WILL BE OVER IN 30 DAYS: Democrat Butch Gautreaux, a state senator from Morgan City who by default appears his party’s standard bearer in the Lieutenant Governor’s race this fall, made news late last week by telling a local radio station he expects the Obama administration’s moratorium will be over soon.

Gautreaux said he is for “safe drilling” and that he understands President Obama’s concerns.

“But I don’t think six months are necessary, if the federal government has its resources together,” Gautreaux said. “As soon as they start inspections, I think they could be wrapped up in a matter of weeks.”

“We don’t need to lose more lives because we need to take care of the economics of the oil industry,” Gautreaux said. “We need to be respective of the lives lost, the families who have lost loved ones, and at the same time, the lives living aboard and working on these rigs, and their families who live without their loved ones 14 days more or less, out of every month.”

The senator stressed that he wants to see people, “back at work as soon as possible,” but conversely, the inspections should not be done, “recklessly.”

If Gautreaux has information others don’t, it’s going to increase his profile, obviously. But if he doesn’t, that statement will be fodder for his opponents in the upcoming.

Nevertheless, the Democrat is getting some media attention. A piece by freelance political writer Jeremy Alford on Gautreaux ran in the Houma Courier today outlining some of what Gautreaux is looking to do as the state’s Lieutenant Governor…

Gautreaux said the Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent spill prompted him to jump into the fray.

“We have got to get past this,” he said. “One way is to begin promoting tourism within. We need people from New Orleans to go and visit Shreveport. We need people from Monroe to come and stay at a bed and breakfast in Terrebonne.”

As for the office, Gautreaux said he has big plans.

“The first thing I would do if elected would be to review all of the programs,” he said. “I already know there’s waste there. I would also run a more friendly office. I want to interact with the Legislature and reach out to stakeholders and bring in new ones like chambers of commerce.”

Gautreaux’s legislative Democrat colleagues Sen. Joel Chaisson (Destrehan), Sen. Eric LaFleur (Ville Platte) and Rep. John Bel Edwards (Amite) are helping him to raise money. A fundraiser with a minimum contribution of $1,000 will take place in downtown Baton Rouge for Gautreaux Wednesday.

Primary and Filing Status

On the primary front, it has been relatively quiet this month. The Alabama runoff has been the only election held since June 22, and it provided yet another example of voters (in this case, in the Republican runoff for governor) choosing someone other than the preferred candidate of the local political establishment, by an unambiguous 56-44% margin.

There has been more action, however, with Congressional/gubernatorial filings; in the past week, filing has concluded in Maryland, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and New York, for a total of 48 states (all but Delaware and Hawaii have concluded their congressional qualifying). Thus far, 37 House members (31 Republicans and 6 Democrats) will not have major party opposition; this list expanded by two when after the close of Louisiana’s qualifying, Democrats decided not to compete for the seats held by Rodney Alexander (R-Quitman) and Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette). (7/18 Editor’s updates: (1) As of press time, candidate filing has concluded in New York, but a finalized list of candidates is not yet available until sometime before August 9, according to their Board Of Election. We currently believe that four New York City Democrats will have no Republican opposition, and once we have the final list, we will revise the paragraph above; (2) We had incorrect dates for filing deadlines for Minnesota and Vermont, and in fact, their filing deadlines have passed)

While Congressional qualifying concludes, the only other electoral action this month will be the Georgia primary on July 20 and the Oklahoma primary on July 27. We are watching two races in Georgia - the governor’s race and a U.S. House race in the suburbs of Atlanta.

On the Democratic side of the governor’s race, we have yet another example (in addition to California, Iowa, Maryland, and Oregon) of a former governor wanting his old job back. Democrat Roy Barnes was defeated by a Republican when he ran for re-election in 2002 (incidentally, the victor was the first and only Republican to win that office since Reconstruction), and is seeking a comeback now that the Republican is term-limited. While he’s expected to win the Democratic primary easily, the more interesting race is the Republican primary. With this being an open seat race, a crowded field of seven candidates is seeking the nomination. What makes this race interesting is that it is yet another test of the power of the Sarah Palin endorsement, as she has thrown her support behind Secretary of State Karen Handel, who leads in a recent poll with 32%.

We are also watching a House race in the eastern suburbs of Atlanta. This majority black district has seen a series of contested Democratic primaries since 2002, and was the district that twice rejected former Congresswoman (and firebrand) Cynthia McKinney. The person who defeated her in 2006, Hank Johnson, is now in some political trouble himself: his two primary opponents have made hay over recent remarks he made in a committee hearing asserting that “…relocating Navy personnel to Guam would cause the small island to ‘become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize’…” . As a result, the picture they are painting to Democratic primary voters in that district is that he is “aloof and out of touch”, and that he “runs his campaign by press releases.”

Shortly after the Georgia and Oklahoma primaries, Congressional qualifying concludes in Delaware on July 30, and contested primaries return with a vengeance, starting on August 3. Throughout the month of August, 14 states (including Louisiana’s August 28 Congressional party primaries) will be holding primaries, and we have summarized those races below (7/18 Editor’s note: We have found out that Minnesota and Vermont have their primaries in August and not on 9/14, as we originally thought):

August 3: Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri – We are focusing on the Republican primary for Senate in Kansas. While throughout the election cycle, “political establishment” candidates have suffered defeat after defeat, Bill Clinton and Sarah Palin have been more successful in their endorsements whenever they weigh in on a race. And in Kansas, two Republican Congressmen are seeking the nomination for this open seat, and Sarah Palin has endorsed Todd Tiahrt, whose endorsement list is a “who’s who” of conservatives: Sean Hannity, Steve Forbes, the Tea Party Express, and Focus On the Family.

August 5: Tennessee: While the Kansas primary will be a test of the power of Sarah Palin’s endorsement, we are following a Democratic House primary in Memphis, Tennessee to assess how viable the use of the “race card” still is in black majority districts. In this situation, two-term incumbent Steve Cohen is a white liberal representing an inner city district that voted 78-22% for Barack Obama. His holding this seat for two terms has ruffled the feathers of the local black political establishment, so pugnacious former Mayor Willie Herenton (who is black) is challenging Cohen in the primary. Yet in this contest, the racial overtones have been counteracted by endorsements Rep. Cohen has received from both members of the Congressional Black Caucus and of President Obama.

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, and Minnesota: The Colorado Senate race features contested Democratic and Republican primaries. The Democratic primary is an interesting proxy battle between President Obama and former President Clinton. This senate seat initially became vacant at the start of the Obama administration when former Senator Ken Salazar was appointed Secretary of the Interior. To fill the vacancy, Colorado’s Democratic governor appointed Michael Bennet, who was at the time the superintendent of Denver’s public schools. Though Bennet has compiled a generally liberal record and has the strong support of the Democratic establishment (including President Obama), some local politicians like former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff felt slighted, and Romanoff is challenging Bennet in the primary with the endorsement of former President Clinton.  This “national vs local establishment” subtext to this race seems similar to the Specter/Sestak race in Pennsylvania, except that Bennet has always been a Democrat who has worked within the political system, and he has (unsurprisingly) led in the polls throughout the campaign.

On the Republican side, the Colorado Senate primary is, like Kentucky and Nevada, another test of the strength of the Tea Party movement in Republican primaries. DA Ken Buck is running with Tea Party support. His main opponent is Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, who is viewed as more of an establishment favorite.

August 17:Washington and Wyoming: In Washington, the GOP scored a recruiting coup when former state senator (and two time gubernatorial candidate) Dino Rossi agreed to run against three term incumbent Patty Murray, the “Mom in tennis shoes.” However, local Tea Partiers are not enthusiastic about his candidacy, and have rallied behind former Washington Redskins tight end Clint Didier. Didier also claims the endorsements of Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, so in a sense, this race is also a test of the power of the Palin endorsement. Washington State, however, is a more hospitable environment for political moderates and/or moderate Republicans, so we believe that Rossi will survive the primary and become the Republican challenger to Senator Murray.

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, and Vermont: In Alaska, Sarah Palin (and Tea Partiers, for that matter)  is supporting the insurgent candidacy of attorney Joe Miller against eight year incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary. There is a personal aspect to this endorsement: former Senator Frank Murkowski (the incumbent senator’s father) was elected Governor in 2002 and promptly appointed his daughter to the seat. This appointment proved to be bad politics for both father and daughter. While Lisa was barely elected to a full term in a year George W. Bush was carrying Alaska with over 60% of the vote, Governor Murkowski was politically humiliated in his 2006 re-election bid. Not only was he defeated in the Republican primary by Sarah Palin, but he came in third place.

The Palin endorsement also is playing itself out in Arizona as well, although this time, Sarah Palin is endorsing the incumbent. In the Republican Senate primary, four term incumbent John McCain has stiff opposition from sportscaster/former Congressman J.D. Hayworth, and Hayworth’s candidacy is an outlet for Arizona Republicans who’ve felt that over the years McCain is not conservative enough. There is a very simple reason for Palin endorsing the incumbent: simple gratitude for McCain’s making her his running mate in his unsuccessful 2008 Presidential candidacy. Also on the ballot is the gubernatorial primary, which was effectively settled on the Republican side when formerly embattled incumbent Jan Brewer decided to enforce federal immigration laws on her own and has since attained hero status with conservatives across the country and in Arizona.

For months, the Republican primary for an open Senate seat in Florida was a marquee event, especially after Governor Charlie Crist saw his poll numbers steadily decline after embracing President Obama during a 2009 visit to the state. When he decided to change parties and run as an Independent (thus bypassing any party primaries), former House Speaker Marco Rubio effectively became the Republican nominee. The race took another twist on the Democratic side, however, when presumptive nominee, Kendrick Meek (a black Congressman from Miami) got a primary challenge from controversial billionaire Jeff Greene. This has been a hard fought 3 way race for several months now, and will continue to be competitive after the primary.

August 28: Louisiana Congressional Party Primaries: This is the last year that Louisiana will hold party primaries for Congressional races (this practice started with the 2008 election cycle and has never been very popular with voters comfortable with Louisiana’s open primaries). There are several races worth following, however. Keep in mind that only Republicans can vote in Republican Congressional primaries, while Democrats and/or unaffiliated voters can vote in Democratic Congressional primaries:

Senate – While both David Vitter and Charlie Melancon face two opponents each in their respective party primaries, we are most interested in the percent of the vote in each parish that Senator Vitter’s challengers will receive, since that vote represents the potential defections Senator Vitter may face in November to any of the 10 independent candidates running. What makes the Republican primary race especially interesting is the last minute entry of former Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor; his candidacy was borne out of disgust at Senator Vitter’s prior conduct with a prostitute, as well as assault charges facing one of his aides.

House – There are also several Congressional  primaries we are watching: (1) in New Orleans, can the Democrats unite behind a single challenger to vulnerable Republican freshman “Joseph” Cao, or will they be pushed into a runoff, thus giving Cao an additional month to campaign and raise money ?; (2) in New Iberia/Houma/Chalmette, three Republicans are seeking Democrat Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat. Will the financial firepower of attorneys Jeff Landry and Hunt Downer put them in the runoff against each other, or can political newcomer Kristian Magar use his grassroots support to pull off an upset by making it into the runoff ?;(3) Three term incumbent Rodney Alexander is facing a primary opponent this year who is questioning his credibility as a conservative. Rep. Alexander similarly faced a more conservative primary challenger in 2008, and whipped him 90-10%. Will the challenger (Todd Slavant), with his Tea Party affiliations, make it a more competitive race in this anti incumbent year?

After the gauntlet of August primaries, all will be quiet on the political front until “Super Tuesday II” on September 14, when 7 states hold their primaries on that day. “Super Tuesday II” pretty much concludes primary season nationally, although Hawaii has a primary on September 18, and on October 2, Louisiana will have (if necessary) party runoffs for Congress, as well as “open primary” races for statewide (Lt Governor, PSC) and local (judge, school board, etc) races. And if no one in those local/statewide races receives a majority, they will have to compete in a runoff held on the same day as the midterm elections.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Congressman John Fleming of Shreveport is once again fighting against federal regulation of hydraulic fracturing. Yesterday he offered an amendment to keep fracking out of the hands of the feds, which industry studies show will increase costs and short-circuit the coming natural gas energy revolution without have any measureable effect on safety or the environment.

Candidate filing has closed in Louisiana for the 2010 elections.  There were a significant number of last minute qualifiers, so we are providing a summary, as well as a list of qualifiers:

(click here to view the list of qualifying candidates)

U.S. Senate/U.S. House -  Party Primary August 28, Party Runoff (if necessary) October 2, General Election November 2

Only Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) escaped any opposition. The Senate race features 17 candidates, with contested Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries;

(7/13 update – “Joseph” Cao’s sole primary opponent, Norman Billiot, has withdrawn, leaving Rep. Cao unopposed in the August 28 primary)

Statewide October 2 Primaries, with Runoff (if necessary) Election November 2

PSC Member Clyde Holloway (R-Forest Hill) was re-elected without opposition to a full term. PSC Member Lambert Boissiere (D-New Orleans) received opposition from John Schwegmann;

There are 9 candidates running for Lieutenant Governor;

State Senate District 2- New Orleans Democrats Mike Darnell, Gilbert J. Etienne, Ira Thomas, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis are running for this seat;.

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. Filing for this office will not be until August, although conservative Alan Seabaugh (who ran for the state Senate in 2007 against Sherri Cheek and nearly won) has expressed interest.

Today is the last day for candidate qualifying in Louisiana for the fall elections (qualifying concludes at 5PM). Below is the current status of major state and national offices:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

Unopposed for primary and general: District 1 – Steve Scalise (R-Metairie), District 6 – Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge), District 7 – Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette)

Unopposed for primary only: (1) District 2 – “Joseph” Cao (R-New Orleans), (2) District 3 Democratic nominee- Ravi Sangisetty (D-Houma), (3) District 4 Republican nominee – John Fleming (R-Minden)

Races with primaries: (1) U.S. Senate Democratic Primary - Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville and Cary Deaton of Metairie; (2) U.S. Senate Republican Primary – David Vitter of Metairie and Nick Accardo of Franklin; (3) District 2 Democratic Primary - state Rep Juan La Fonta, state Rep Cedric Richmond, and Gary Johnson; (4) District 3 Republican Primary - Jeff Landry and Hunt Downer; (5) District 4 Democratic Primary - Steven Gavi and David Melville; (6) District 5 Republican Primary - Rodney Alexander and Todd Slavant (Note: what is interesting about David Vitter’s primary opponent is that he ran for office against J. Bennett Johnston, John Breaux, Billy Tauzin, and Mary Landrieu as a Democrat then as an Indpendent between 1990 and 1996) ;

3rd Party Candidacies, who will appear on the November ballot without a primary: (1) U.S. Senate – “Tony G” Gentile of Mandeville, Michael Brown of Shreveport, Bob Lang of Natchitoches, Sam Melton of Winnfield, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Milton Gordon of Alexandria; (2) District 2 – Anthony Marquize; (3) District 4 – Artis Cash; (4) District 5 – “Tom” Gibbs

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – (All five so far are Republicans) Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight, and country singer Sammy Kershaw (who ran for the office in 2007 against Mitch Landrieu);

Supreme Court, District 7 (Orleans, Westbank) - Bernette Johnson was unopposed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 (New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge) and 4 (Central and Southwest Louisiana) - District 3 – Lambert Boissiere (D-New Orleans) was unopposed, District 4 – Clyde Holloway (R-Forest Hill) was unopposed

State Senate District 2- New Orleans Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis;.

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. Filing for this office will not be until August, although conservative Alan Seabaugh (who ran for the state Senate in 2007 against Sherri Cheek and nearly won) has expressed interest.

We are now half way through candidate qualifying, and for the major races, nearly all of the incumbents/major players have qualified. After an initial rush of qualifiers yesterday morning, qualifying yesterday afternoon and this morning has proceeded as a slower pace, with the biggest entry being Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty, who is competing for the Congressional seat Charlie Melancon vacated to run for the Senate. Below is the current status:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – There are seven candidates in this race: Incumbent Republican David Vitter, Democrats Charlie Melancon and Cary Deaton, Libertarian Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008), and three Independents: Michael Brown of Shreveport, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Bob Lang if Natchitoches. Given Louisiana’s current (but recently repealed) congressional primary law, Melancon must win the Democratic primary on 8/28, while David Vitter and the three independents get a “free ride” electorally until the November election;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be contested Democratic primaries both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There are currently two contested Republican primaries: one for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry, while up in northeast Louisiana, 6 year incumbent Rodney Alexander has picked up a primary opponent:  Todd Slavant from Monroe, who has allied himself with the Tea Party movement. Furthermore, the November ballot will have three Independents: Anthony Marquize (who is running against “Joseph” Cao in New Orleans), Artis Cash (who is running against John Fleming in northwest Louisiana), and Tom Gibbs (who is running against Rodney Alexander in northeast Louisiana);

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – So far, the Lt. Governor’s race remains an all Republican race between Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), and Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight (she filed this morning);

Supreme Court, District 7 - This is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. So far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, only Boissiere and Holloway have filed for their seats;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far, although conservative Alan Seabaugh has mentioned his interest in the race in various Internet postings;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

The first day of qualifying time is half over, and for the major races, nearly all of the incumbents/major players have qualified. Below is the current status:

 August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – David Vitter, Charlie Melancon, and a Libertarian named Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008) have filed. At this time, there will be a Democratic primary for the Senate race, as Cary Deaton of Metairie will be challenging Charlie Melancon in the primary;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be a contested Democratic primary both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There will also be a contested Republican primary for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry;

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – Thus far, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, and St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign) have filed so far;

Supreme Court, District 7 - this is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish, and so far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to (inner city) Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, no one has filed for either seat;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

Connie Hair of Human Events has a bombshell of a piece today on one of the Obama administration’s worst actions since the Gulf oil spill saga began on April 20:

House Republicans are questioning the Obama Administration about why permits have not been re-issued to allow drilling to resume in shallow water in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rep. Bill Cassidy (R.-La.), at a House National Resources Committee hearing on Wednesday, sought questions about the de-facto drilling moratorium from Michael Bromwich, the new director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, who has only been on the job for eight days.

“There is a disconnect between what is being said by the administration and what we’re hearing from the industry,” Cassidy told HUMAN EVENTS at the hearing.

“What is said by the administration is, ‘No we’ve worked out everything that could be the least problematic — it’s just a question now of getting the process rolling again, but it’s going to go through.’ What we’re hearing from the industry is that indeed there’s a shifting set of regulations, that no one will make a decision, and that they’ve been unable to activate,” Cassidy said.

It’s been over a month since President Obama claimed there’s no moratorium on shallow-water drilling. In the wake of the Deepwater Horizon explosion, all drilling in the Gulf was halted. The President announced that shallow-water drilling would resume but that companies would be required to re-permit under new safety guidelines.

But no shallow-water drilling permits—with the exception of two which were quickly rescinded — have been granted since the drilling moratorium was first announced on May 6th.

“We’re told by the government that the de-facto moratorium doesn’t exist,” Cassidy said.“By industry, by workers, we’re told that it does.”

The entire article is a must-read, complete with a time-line of Department of Interior actions on shallow-water drilling which show a marked divergence between words and actions. It appears clear that while Salazar is claiming there is no moratorium currently in place, administration actions have prevented actual drilling.

Some 22 percent of the jobs in coastal Louisiana depend on oil and gas, according to a PowerPoint presentation made to a June 25 conference on the Obamoratorium’s effects on Louisiana’s economy by LSU economist James Richardson. Those jobs overwhelmingly come as a result of drilling, rather than production, activities. Once an oil well is in production, it will need a crew to operate it but the support service requirements – things like industrial pipe, drilling mud, concrete and so on – are no longer needed. Groceries for the crew constitute the bulk of what’s necessary. As such, shutting down drilling in both deep and shallow water will kill the majority of the oil and gas jobs along Louisiana’s coast and drive unemployment in those communities sky high.

And yet despite these stakes, as Hair’s piece notes, the Secretary of the Interior refuses even to acknowledge the practical effects of his actions.