The conventional wisdom is that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a shoo in for the Lt Governor’s race. We would like to test that assumption by examining the strengths/weaknesses of the major candidates running in this race and projecting their vote totals on a parish by parish basis to predict the overall primary results.

Currently, eight candidates (five Republicans and three Democrats) have filed for this race. We are focusing our analysis on the candidates we consider “major” at this point based on their name recognition, fundraising, and/or elected office held. On the Republican side, there is Secretary of State “Jay” Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, country singer Sammy Kershaw (who ran for the office in 2007), and St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. None of the three Democrats have much statewide name recognition, but of those running, we believe that his legislative tenure, combined with his chairing the Senate Retirement Committee, gives Morgan City state senator “Butch” Gautreaux some visibility – at least to to the constituency of state employees and/or retirees.As we construct our parish by parish predictions, several things must first be considered:

(1) The “Cypress Curtain” – Recent elections starting with the 2006 Secretary of State’s race have been characterized by a cultural dividing line running roughly along the length of the Atchafalaya swamp. East of that dividing line are the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets. In this more urbanized part of the state (which contains 53% of the registered voters), voters tend to prefer more media savvy candidates who project a more moderate tone. In both of Jay Dardenne’s elections, this region of the state has consistently been his electoral stronghold. This region also has more strongly preferred “Bobby” Jindal and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu. And even when Mike Huckabee carried the state in the 2008 GOP presidential preference primary, John McCain led 47-37% east of the Atchafalaya.

In this race, we believe that Jay Dardenne will run most strongly east of the “Cypress Curtain”: not only did he carry most of the parishes in this region in his first race (in fact, those were the only parishes he carried), but his regional strength was confirmed in his 2007 re-election. While he was re-elected by a solid 63-31% margin, he won metro New Orleans 66-29% and the Baton Rouge media market 71-26%. West of the “curtain” he won with a comfortable but lower 59-35% margin. His only distraction east of the “curtain” will be the candidacy of Roger Villere, who is from Jefferson Parish. West of the “curtain”, the electoral picture gets a little more complicated because of the presence of country singer Sammy Kershaw. Though his campaign was not as visible in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets, he still received 30% of the vote statewide compared to the 57% that then incumbent Mitch Landrieu received. West of the Atchafalaya, the Landrieu lead was only 48-40%, with most of that margin coming from northwest Louisiana. Without an incumbent in this race, we think Kershaw will do similarly well in the parishes west of the “curtain”, particularly the rural ones (Below is a graphical depiction of the regions of the state).

Regions of Louisiana

(2) Core Democratic vote – Though most of the psychic energy in this race comes from the Republican candidates, the reality is that there is still a significant bloc of votes available to any Democrat on either side of the Atchafalaya. This cohesive populist/Democratic vote consists of blacks and “yellow dog” Democrats and represents at least 30% of the vote in any given election. Though Jay Dardenne has shown the ability to attract some of this vote in his elections (for instance, he got 20 and 33% of the black vote, respectively, in his own East Baton Rouge Parish in both of his Secretary of State races), the last minute entry of three Democrats into the race means that a lot of this voter bloc will gravitate towards the Democratic candidates, and of those candidates, we believe that state senator “Butch” Gautreaux of Morgan City currently has the best chance of receiving this vote.

(3) The effect of local races on Democratic turnout – Overall, white turnout in the 2006 Secretary of State’s race was 28%, while black turnout was 20%. However, black turnout was boosted in Shreveport, Alexandria, and in parishes along the Mississippi River Delta due to hotly contested mayoral and legislative races there. Shreveport and Alexandria will again have hotly contested mayor’s races, and there will be a contested Democratic Congressional primary in New Orleans. We therefore have to assume that there will be some benefit accruing to the Democrats in these areas.

Given these considerations, what we see right now in the Lt. Governor’s race is a three way race. Jay Dardenne leads with 30%, followed by Sammy Kershaw with 27%, “Butch” Gautreaux with 26%, and the other candidates’ getting 17% (Roger Villere gets 11 of the remaining 17%). Keep in mind that a lot (i.e., candidate withdrawals, quality of commercials run, blunders, and so forth) can and will affect the ultimate outcome. However, we see this analysis as a snapshot of things given what we know of the candidate’s electoral strengths and weaknesses, with the following additional observations/caveats (our predictions by parish are here):

(1) As the “major” Democrat in the race, “Butch” Gautreaux will pretty much own the 30% populist vote base, especially when you get west of the Atchafalaya. We also believe that his performance in Caddo and Rapides Parishes will be aided by a strong black turnout due to contested mayor’s races in Shreveport and Alexandria;

(2) In his 2007 race for Lt. Governor, Sammy Kershaw was strong in the rural parishes, especially those west of the Atchafalaya. We think he can sustain strong voter support in these rural parishes again, which basically hurts the Villere campaign and, to a lesser extent, Jay Dardenne;

(3) Roger Villere is electorally boxed in as long as Kevin Davis and Sammy Kershaw remain in the race;

(4) Jay Dardenne’s base of the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets will mostly remain intact. He will, however, lose some of his support in the rural parishes to Sammy Kershaw.

(5) The wildcard in the race is the last minute entry of Caroline Fayard. Between her New Orleans base and her family connections to the Fayards (well known trial lawyers) in Livingston Parish, she has the potential to make this a race on the Democratic side. If this were to occur, any vote she receives will generally come at the expense of “Butch” Gautreaux, although she may hurt Jay Dardenne with more moderate voters in parishes east of the “Cypress Curtain” as well. Depending on how much she cuts into the Democratic vote, we can see a scenario where two of the Republicans, Sammy Kershaw and Jay Dardenne, would make the runoff, in which case Dardenne would win with about 55-60% of the vote.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

We are now half way through candidate qualifying, and for the major races, nearly all of the incumbents/major players have qualified. After an initial rush of qualifiers yesterday morning, qualifying yesterday afternoon and this morning has proceeded as a slower pace, with the biggest entry being Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty, who is competing for the Congressional seat Charlie Melancon vacated to run for the Senate. Below is the current status:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – There are seven candidates in this race: Incumbent Republican David Vitter, Democrats Charlie Melancon and Cary Deaton, Libertarian Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008), and three Independents: Michael Brown of Shreveport, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Bob Lang if Natchitoches. Given Louisiana’s current (but recently repealed) congressional primary law, Melancon must win the Democratic primary on 8/28, while David Vitter and the three independents get a “free ride” electorally until the November election;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be contested Democratic primaries both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There are currently two contested Republican primaries: one for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry, while up in northeast Louisiana, 6 year incumbent Rodney Alexander has picked up a primary opponent:  Todd Slavant from Monroe, who has allied himself with the Tea Party movement. Furthermore, the November ballot will have three Independents: Anthony Marquize (who is running against “Joseph” Cao in New Orleans), Artis Cash (who is running against John Fleming in northwest Louisiana), and Tom Gibbs (who is running against Rodney Alexander in northeast Louisiana);

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – So far, the Lt. Governor’s race remains an all Republican race between Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), and Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight (she filed this morning);

Supreme Court, District 7 - This is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. So far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, only Boissiere and Holloway have filed for their seats;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far, although conservative Alan Seabaugh has mentioned his interest in the race in various Internet postings;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

For tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, candidates will be qualifying for national, statewide, and local races in Louisiana. What may be confusing is that while we will return to open primaries for Congressional races, we are still using party primaries for this year’s Congressional elections only. Meaning that Democrats/Independents may vote in the August 28 Democratic party primary, but only Republicans may vote for Republican candidates in the August 28 party primary. If no party candidate gets 50% of the vote, an October 2 runoff will occur. For statewide/local races, of course, the open primary system is still in place. Below are the major races we will be voting on this year:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – While the Vitter/Melancon race has been going on for some time now, both candidates still have to get past their parties’ primaries. Senator Vitter will likely have minor primary opposition, while currently, Rep. Melancon is unopposed in the Democratic primary;

All 7 Congressional seats – We are not expecting much action in terms of the August 28 party primary, although the GOP primary for Charlie Melancon’s seat between New Iberia and Chalmette (including Gonzales) will be a hotly contested race. Additionally, at least two Democratic legislators want to recapture a Congressional seat in New Orleans from freshman Republican Joseph Cao;

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – this office was vacated when Mitch Landrieu was elected Mayor of New Orleans earlier this year. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is running for this office, but will face stiff opposition from GOP chairman Roger Villere in a race that already has similarities to the 2006 Jay Dardenne/Mike Francis contest that took place when Jay first sought the job of Secretary of State in 2006. In addition to the intraparty feud, there is a question as to whether the Democrats will actively contest this race;

Supreme Court, District 7 - this is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish.

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to (inner city) Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting;

Local races (School Board, Mayor of Alexandria/Shreveport, Police Chief, and similar local offices)

We will keep an eye on who has qualified, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

from a release out of Gov. Bobby Jindal’s office this morning:

BATON ROUGE – Today, Governor Bobby Jindal announced that Scott Angelle will be his nominee to serve as Lieutenant Governor after Mitch Landrieu takes office as the Mayor of New Orleans. Angelle can begin serving as Lieutenant Governor upon confirmation by a majority vote of each house of the Legislature. Once Angelle assumes the role of Lieutenant Governor, he will step down as the Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources, but he will continue in his current part-time role as legislative liaison for the Governor’s Office.

Governor Jindal said, “Scott has worked closely with us for more than two years now as we worked to reform our state. He is a public servant to the core and his incredible work ethic is perhaps only out-matched by his heart. We have a critical agenda in the Legislature this year and Scott is a vital part of our team. We will continue to rely on his insight and direction in passing the budget and addressing our budget shortfalls – in addition to advancing our legislative package.”

Angelle has agreed not to run for the Lieutenant Governor’s office, which the Governor said was a requirement for anyone he nominated for the post. The Governor will appoint Robert Harper as acting Secretary for the Department of Natural Resources. Angelle plans to return to the agency once his tenure as Lieutenant Governor has finished. Harper is currently serving as Undersecretary at the Department of Natural Resources.

Scott Angelle Bio:

Scott Angelle, of Breaux Bridge, began serving as the Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources in 2004. For more than a year, he has also served as Governor Jindal’s legislative liaison.

Angelle led the state’s efforts in the Louisiana Legislature to pass a constitutional amendment dedicating future Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) revenues to finance the coastal restoration and hurricane protection plan, and he also led efforts to pass Legislation to create the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) to integrate coastal restoration and hurricane protection efforts in the state.

From 2000 to 2004, Angelle served as the Parish President of St. Martin Parish. Angelle was the first president in the parish’s history, and he worked to reduce business property taxes, upgrade the parish’s health care system and establish an advanced regional fire fighting training program.

He is chairman of the Louisiana State Mineral Board, a member of the Atchafalaya Basin Program Research and Promotion Board, and the LSU Center of Energy Studies Advisory Council. Angelle has a bachelor’s of science in petroleum land management from the University of Southwestern Louisiana (now the University of Louisiana in Lafayette).

Robert Harper Bio:

Robert Harper, of Baton Rouge, has served as Undersecretary of the Department of Natural Resources for nearly two decades. As Undersecretary of DNR, Harper oversees the agency’s Office of Management and Finance.

Harper has been employed by the State of Louisiana for the last 40 years. He began his career in 1970 spending 20 years as a senior budget analyst with the Division of Administration. Harper holds a bachelor’s of arts degree from Louisiana State University in political science and is married to Sherry Penney Harper.

It’s hard not to like Jim Brown. The former Louisiana Insurance Commissioner-turned-blogger/radio host is one of the few statewide pols who will throw his honest opinions into the fray, and what he says is usually thought-provoking stuff. Brown has been around a while, knows most of the players involved in Louisiana politics and policy and can offer, most of the time, an informed and experienced opinion on the events of the day.

So when he posted a column on his web site last night on Mitch Landrieu’s challenges ahead as New Orleans’ new mayor, it was naturally worth a look.

Unfortunately, though, it’s also a bit of a head-scratcher.

Amid a number of suggestions on fighting crime, which seem reasonable but perhaps unnecessary – if Landrieu wants to make good on his pledge to do something about New Orleans’ longstanding runaway crime problem he needs to mind-meld with Rudy Giuliani and do virtually everything New York did when Giuliani cleaned that city up – comes another suggestion reminiscent of the Big Apple.

Brown wants Landrieu to watch and study City Hall, the 1996 film starring Al Pacino, John Cusack, Bridget Fonda and Danny Aiello about a caring, articulate and inspiring Democrat mayor of New York on the rise. Brown would have Mitch emulate Pacino’s John Pappas – in other words be the mayor who’s everywhere and everything. It would make the folks feel better, he says.

Here’s a taste:

Pacino certainly gives a heck of a speech. I wonder if Mitch might pull something if he tried an oration like that.

But here’s the problem – and if you haven’t seen the movie, consider this a spoiler alert…

Pacino’s character, it is revealed, is as greasy as they come. That great speech he gives at the little kid’s funeral? Turns out the child was murdered by stray bullet from a Mafia princeling who got a sweetheart probation deal from a judge connected to the mayor. And further, we find out that the mayor made the call to the judge requesting he spring the mobster. Pappas’ career comes to a screeching halt in the final scene:

There’s a bit more here than just to say that Landrieu doesn’t need to emulate Pacino’s character because he’s a crook. Landrieu doesn’t need to emulate Pacino’s character because he’s a statist, too. The most famous, if you can call it that, line of the final scene is the one when Pacino says “if a sparrow dies in Central park, I feel responsible.” That, I submit, is the worst possible attitude New Orleans can have from its mayor.

Look, Ray Nagin has been an abject, total disaster as New Orleans’ mayor, and his attitude certainly has been a problem for the city. Do not take from this entry the idea that Nagin should be emulated in any way. But after decades upon decades of paternalistic, overweening government wrought upon New Orleanians by mayors who fancy themselves as would-be John Pappases, the last thing Landrieu needs to do is run around healing all the sparrows in the city.

Brown’s column suggests Landrieu engage with the city’s business community, giving some lousy advice in doing so:

Many competent business execs want to help, but were rebuffed by Nagin. There is talent galore that is willing to pitch in on a volunteer basis. One of the strengths of New Orleans is the number of young people who have gravitated to the Crescent City to begin “start up” businesses. Landrieu should have no trouble bringing in many of the city’s best and brightest in a public-private partnership of ideas and new programs.

Respectfully, the entrepreneurs in New Orleans who are creating a burgeoning mecca of sorts for new businesses and startups have done so with absolutely no programs, partnerships or participation of any kind by the city government. They’re there because it’s an interesting place to live, because the government which had been in everyone’s pocket for decades driving job-creators to the suburbs was dysfunctional and unable to continue its petty tyranny at normal rates and because the federal government created an “enterprise zone” in which business investment found favorable tax conditions in New Orleans.

Those entrepreneurs are doing more to resurrect the economy of that city than any billion-dollar government program could ever do, and all they really require is for Landrieu and his minions to leave them alone. Catch criminals, pick up the trash, pave a street or two and keep the water pumps working – do those things well, which the city government hasn’t done in generations, and leave the rest to the people of the city, and you’ll wake up someday and realize you’re a legendarily successful mayor because of the exploits of the private sector you got out of the way of.

Well-meaning business people who want to effect social change or help their fellow man are completely capable of doing so with zero partnership or assistance from government. Typically they need government not to interfere and that’s all. But Brown’s model would have Landrieu play Busybody-In-Chief in New Orleans rather than stick to the handful of major city services which are his duty to provide, and that’s a recipe for another failed mayor.

Landrieu’s record and campaign statements indicate he’s likely to follow Brown’s advice and be that charismatic movie mayor. If he does, he’s likely to reap the final scene of City Hall. Rather than put himself in such a position Landrieu would do better to focus on the basics and do them well; New Orleans has had more than enough big government screwing things up to last it for the next four years.

This column marks the debut of Oscar, TheHayride.com’s resident voracious rodent and all-around pestilential influence. We want it known from the beginning that any relationship between what the little guy says and the editorial position of TheHayride.com staff is completely coincidental – were it not for certain contractual and/or economic factors unfortunately in play we would have laughed derisively at the idea of a nutria offering commentary on a serious political site.

But, it is what it is. So don’t judge us too harshly for what Oscar says – for that matter, don’t judge Oscar too harshly. He is, after all, a rat…

OK, first of all, don’t call me a rat. I’m not a rat. I’m 20 pounds of hardbody Myocastor coypus – and you people definitely don’t know what that means, but what it doesn’t mean is “rat.” Got it? You call me a rat, and I’ll crap on your porch.

So anyways, the Super Bowl was terrific. Down here in Barataria where I stay at, even the mud-turtles were juiced up about it. I’m especially happy for Peyton Manning – from the time that cat was knee-high to a grasshopper he always wanted to throw a touchdown pass for the Saints to win a game and he finally got to do it. We all ripped him and his brudder for giving LSU the bah-fungu out of high school, but hey – bygones be bygones, right?

I even liked the commercials. Hell, why wouldn’t I? My nephew T-Bill, who went out to Hollywood looking for fame and fortune years ago, made his debut in a Super Bowl spot. T-Bill got mixed up in the L.A. scene too much, and he had plastic surgery and does high calonics and yoga and all that, but the boy has some talent. He showed it. Got himself a gig on stage in front of some old farts in black tie. We used to laugh at him for whitening his teeth when he was a kid, but now he’s livin’ da life.

Speaking of the spots, though, what’s up with all the commercials where guys don’t have pants on? Did these all come from the same ad agency, or what? Look, I’m a nutria, OK? I never wear pants, and I go commando at that. But because I’m a nutria nobody expects me to. You people expect your men to wear pants, and you should. Somebody needs to tell Madison Avenue – even the commercial for the company that makes pants had guys with no pants on.

Creepy.

Speaking of creepy, Tim Tebow tackles like a girl, and he wears gay-guy T-shirts. So I can understand why the ad he was in was controversial. Best I can tell, he didn’t have pants on, either. That’s why the heifers in the pro-choice gang had a problem with the ad, right? No? Oh – they don’t like the ad because it tells people they can’t have an abortion if they want one? Did the ad say that? No? Hey – it’s over my head. I’m a nutria, remember?

I did catch Obama on TV before the game. He wasn’t talking about the game. He was talking about himself.

Scintillating. Which is nutria for “I’m-so-friggin’-bored-I-could-slash-my-wrists-with-a-cut-up-beer-can.” 

Real tough questions from Katie Couric-Riefenstahl, too. And real honorable of CBS to put that puppet show on an hour and a half before game time. Like I said, I’m a nutria and I could still figure out what they were up to. Here’s a little piece of advice, guys – Katie’s ratings aren’t in the terlet because nobody’s seen what she can do. They’re in the terlet because we know exactly what she can do.

By the way, I hear hizzonna Mitch Landrieu is the new mayor in New Orleans. That’s nice. Mitch has done real well for himself since he gave up trying to have hair; for a while he had some of us a little worried down here we might end up as a toupee or two on the man with all the effort he was putting in. We were all hoping for our cou-zan John Georges to win – OK, he’s not really a cou-zan; he paid me to say that.

But if Mitch is the mayor of New Orleans, who’s gonna be Lt. Gov.? They say Jindal is picking somebody for the job soon – if he’s got a couple stones what he’ll do is appoint Jay Dardenne for the job since Dardenne’s gonna run for it anyway. If Dardenne moves up then Jindal can appoint somebody as Secretary of State and then he’ll have a whole ticket to work from next year when everybody’s up for re-election.

If he appoints Sammy Kershaw I’m gonna blow chunks.

All right, that’s all I got. I’m off to watch a little nutria porn - but do me a favor, wouldya? Tell Kip Holden if he wants to trade us off to the Chicoms in exchange for drywall or whatever he’s gotta ask nicely first.

Polls had shown Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu lingering below 50 percent in his attempt to subdue an 11-candidate field in the New Orleans mayoral race held Saturday, but as it turns out there might not be any need for a runoff.

With 37 of 366 precincts tallied, Landrieu is carrying better than 65 percent of the vote, far ahead of Troy Henry’s 16 percent. Henry had been seen as a candidate with a chance to sneak into the runoff and beat Landrieu based on pure demographics, but his campaign fell apart in the last two weeks of the race.

Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat John Georges is polling just 7.44 percent despite outspending the field to finish third. Republican Rob Couhig sits at four percent in fourth place.

In the two weeks since the New Orleans Saints won the NFC Championship Game and launched the NFL franchise into its first Super Bowl, a good deal of national attention and well-wishing has descended upon the city.

That’s been a good thing. But along with the kudos and good feelings have come an aggravating, and, frankly, insulting, patronization of New Orleans and Louisiana. President Barack Obama personified the attitude perfectly last week when, asked by ABC News’ Diane Sawyer what his Super Bowl pick was, he said:

I guess I’m rooting a little bit for the Saints as the underdog partly just because when I think of what’s happened in New Orleans over the last several years and how much that team means to them. You know, I’m pretty sympathetic.

This, along with a Public Policy Polling survey out last week that had Democrats rooting for the Saints by a 36-21 margin while Republicans were split evenly, is pretty telling stuff.

New Orleans has been the poster child for lefty pity and paternalism for a long time, and particularly since Katrina since the hurricane created the Left’s somewhat-accurate narrative of Bush administration incompetence. The storm, and the failure of the federally-built levees to hold back floodwaters that would destroy vast swaths of the city in its wake, became a political mother lode for the Democrat Party – and it still is.

Otherwise, when notorious liar, former ambulance chaser and abusive cad John Edwards announced his ill-fated candidacy for president in 2008, he wouldn’t have used the city’s Ninth Ward as his backdrop.

Otherwise, Democrats wouldn’t have brought up Katrina ad nauseam every time the war in Iraq came up in discussion – like, for example, during the 2008 debate over Bush’s $162 billion war appropriation when it didn’t include Katrina recovery funds (those voices fell silent a year later when the Obama stimulus package contained no dedicated funding for Katrina recovery; instead, it was argued that the federal funding pipeline was full and red tape, rather than cash, was the problem).

But while Katrina fed into Democrat memes about poverty, rapacious corporate greed and racial victimization, idiotic statements by Republican congressional leaders like Larry Craig and Denny Hastert to the effect that rebuilding New Orleans was a waste of money and that the city’s politicians and people in general would only steal what swag came their way helped move a narrative along that the GOP was happy to kill the city out of racial animus. Scores of billions of GOP-appropriated federal Katrina recovery dollars couldn’t wash away the perception that white Republicans were trying to use inaction to gentrify the city, and when the Bush administration frowned on Rep. Richard Baker’s idea for a quasi-public corporation to buy out destroyed properties from upside-down mortgagees in the city and restore them to commerce by getting developers involved an even stronger case was made. For a time it got so bad that in 2006 a Republican candidate for then-Congressman Bill Jefferson’s seat ran on a “Make Levees, Not War” slogan.

Thus was the hook set nationally for New Orleans as America’s permanent sob sister. Here you had a racially-divided city where the black community was seen by one side as the victim of white racism and poverty resulting from discrimination, while the other side saw the city as beset by a litany of failed left-wing policies and the dependency class they perpetuated.

But both sides failed to see the obvious – namely, that New Orleans’ story was about people, not policies. And while the city certainly absorbed a lot of federal dollars, and while certainly there was theft and fraud involved in the recovery, local actors have driven the comeback that the Saints’ success have shone a light on in the past few months.

Wright Thompson’s sensational piece for ESPN.com in December brilliantly captured the character of New Orleans, circa 2010. The city is battered and bruised, sure – but more than that it’s defiant, resurgent and more optimistic now than ever in recent memory. A new class of entrepreneurs has taken up residence in New Orleans, young businesses dot the landscape, Hollywood celebrities and others routinely turn up in the city’s restaurants and on the property tax rolls, the restructured public schools in Orleans Parish operate mostly on a charter model which has infused the city’s educational system with a spirit of innovation and rather than the old mentality of government programs to fix the world’s problems the attitude now reflects a severe distrust and ridicule of politicians and a spirit of self-reliance.

It was expected that the beleagured and incompetent Ray Nagin would personify New Orleans. Nagin does not. To the extent a government official in the city holds that title, it’s U.S. Attorney Jim Letten for his crusade of taking down crooks who steal recovery dollars and the tax revenues of the city and its suburban parishes. The local reaction to Sen. Mary Landrieu’s Louisiana Purchase affair surrounding the Obama health care bill was a harsh one; rather than a grasping, corrupt caricature presented nationally of New Orleans and Louisiana the reality of the city’s people is commonly one of disgust with the slimy deal-making they’re rejecting locally anywhere they see it.

After all, “Dollar Bill” Jefferson’s congressional district is now represented by a Republican, Joseph Cao, who was improbably elected in a big Democratic year in 2008 as the city’s voters rejected the theft and fraud of the long-time corruptocrat – and Letten has put away the majority of his crooked family. In suburban Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes, Letten’s investigations have succeeded in removing old-time sleazeballs like Mandeville mayor Eddie Price (a Republican) and Jefferson Parish president Aaron Broussard (a Democrat). The old machines are being dismantled, and the public is glad to see it.

The Saints themselves and their relationship with the city and the state have been transformed; in the recent past owner Tom Benson was cast, not unfairly, as a money-grubbing corporate welfare recipient in constant shakedown mode, current governor Bobby Jindal managed to put a longstanding threat of the team’s relocation to rest by making Benson and the team a partner in the resurgence of downtown New Orleans. In the relatively near future the area around the Superdome will be brought back as a theme-park of sorts with Benson as the proprietor; if ever there were questions about his loyalty to the city those have been put to rest. His granddaughter, Rita Benson LeBlanc, who has the operational control of the team, has proven an attractive and vibrant ambassador as any city could hope for.

This is not to say it’s a totally new day in the city. Today is Election Day in New Orleans, and by all accounts the city’s electorate remains majority black. And while that electorate seems likely to choose as its mayor a white candidate in Mitch Landrieu, the first non-African American mayor since Landrieu’s father Moon held City Hall in 1970′s, Republican dreams – if ever they truly existed – of “taking over” in the Crescent City have proven unfounded. A Landrieu administration is likely to produce much of the same left-wing policies and government paternalism which prevailed during New Orleans’ pre-Katrina decline.

But if so, the new mayor will do so at his political peril. This is no longer a city or a region tolerant of the failure and incompetence of the past. And while a full recovery from the hurricane is still a few years away and its effects aren’t going to be forgotten soon, New Orleans is no longer a city in decline – it has a pulse, pride and a direction again.

While the Saints spent the majority of their first 40 years in existence flirting with the cellar, and personified a city happy and comfortable in decline, the franchise’s current team also personifies New Orleans. It’s a team with great talent but, often, humble beginnings. Drew Brees, pound for pound the NFL’s best quarterback, was cast aside as a casualty of injury in San Diego despite blossoming into an elite passer there; he’s flourished in New Orleans. Darren Sharper fights back age as the league’s most prolific thief. Johnathan Vilma was considered damaged goods as a Jets linebacker; he’s in the Pro Bowl now. Jeremy Shockey was considered a flake and a cancer with the Giants; he might be the heart and soul of the Saints. Pierre Thomas (undrafted free agent) and Marcus Colston (7th-round pick) were nobodies before getting a chance in the Black and Gold. And so on.

And the oddsmakers might have the Saints as an underdog, but the smarmy sentiment surrounding the club’s entry in the sweepstakes down in Miami is something of an insult. After all, this team won 13 straight games before a swoon at season’s end due to injuries; the Saints had home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs because they earned it. This was no wild-card team who barely made the playoffs; they completely dominated most of their opponents this season.

So if the nation wants to pull for the Saints tomorrow night, that’s fine. But win or lose, the team’s accomplishment in getting to the Super Bowl – as a metaphor for the overall upward direction of the city – should put to bed this narrative of the team and the town as a lovable basket-case upon which politicians and media pundits can project their pathologies and philosophical fetishes.

New Orleans has had enough of that, just like it has had enough of the bad football and worse leadership it was known for prior to the hurricane. Let the Saints be judged on their accomplishments – and let New Orleans be judged the same way.

Louisiana state government is filled with unneeded positions that only add to our bloated budget. One perfect example is the office of Lt. Governor. Maybe in good economic times, such a ceremonial position can be justified, but not today.

For years, budget reformers have recommended the elimination of this unnecessary position. Now advocates for streamlined government are getting support from Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who broached the subject last week.

Clearly, this is one of the Governor’s best ideas. The office of Lt. Governor has very limited duties and is needless in our state government. Several years ago, the state eliminated the position of Elections Commissioner. The duties of that office were assumed by the Secretary of State’s office and the state of Louisiana did not suffer at all. Similarly, we would survive if we eliminated the Lt. Governor position and the scant duties of that office were assumed by another state office holder.

To abolish the position, the Louisiana Legislature will have to pass a bill with a two-thirds majority. In preparation for the upcoming session, State Representative Cameron Henry (R-Metairie) is working on legislation which would shut down the entire office of Lt. Governor and divide the few real duties of the position among other state departments. Henry claims that there is strong support from both Democratic and Republican legislators for his bill, which will save taxpayers about $10.5 million per year. The position comes with a big salary, a big staff, and a myriad of costly vehicles and offices.

If the bill passes, the issue will go before the voters of Louisiana. Since it will involve an amendment to the state constitution, it will require the approval of the voters. There is little doubt that a strong majority of voters support abolishing the office of Lt. Governor. For example, in an on-line poll at www.lanewslink.com, 73% of respondents supported the elimination of the office.

If the duties of Lt. Governor are so important, how can Mitch Landrieu take a leave of absence every few years to run for Mayor of New Orleans? Landrieu has used the office as a platform to campaign for the job he really covets. While Landrieu has not embarrassed the state and has seemingly done a decent job, most tourism officials cannot point to any concrete accomplishments during his tenure. When I asked one local hotel executive what Landrieu had done as Lt. Governor, he said, “I really don’t know.”

After this mayor’s race, it will be a perfect opportunity to consolidate state government and reduce an unnecessary office. It will not only save taxpayer money, but it will give politicians once less office to use as a stepping stone to another position.

While Governor Jindal has expressed interest in abolishing the position, a host of other politicians are lining up to run for the office in the next election. The motivation, of course, is that Bobby Jindal may vacate the Governor’s office early. There is rampant speculation that Jindal may be included in the 2012 GOP ticket as either a presidential or vice-presidential nominee.

So, it seems the only real duty of this position to wait for the Governor to leave the state or vacate the office. By eliminating the position, the state would be moving, albeit in a small direction, toward more efficient government. It is a good idea, as other states have eliminated the position, so let’s follow their lead.

In this day and age, when budget deficits are out of control, we need to eliminate any and all superfluous positions in state government and save money for the abused taxpayers. Let’s start by getting rid of the office of Lt. Governor.

Jeff Crouere is the Host of “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. He is the Political Analyst for WGNO-TV ABC26 and a Columnist for selected publications. For more information, visit his web site at RingsidePolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.

Until recently, it appeared that Louisiana was going to have a comparitively boring election year.  Oh sure, there are going to be two interesting congressional races, but Sen. David Vitter is unopposed  [Oh, what's that?  Charlie Melancon is running against him?  That's right -- I keep forgetting about him.] essentially unopposed.

Anyway, this fall’s elections are about to get a lot more interesting.

On February 6, New Orleans voters will vote to elect a new mayor.  It now appears likely that Mitch Landrieu will win, either next Saturday or (more likely) in a runoff a month from now.  When that happens, Gov. Jindal will appoint a temporary replacement and there will be a new Lt. Governor’s election on Oct 2, with a runoff on Nov 2.

You may ask, “What’s the big deal about Lt. Governor?  Isn’t his only responsibility to run the state tourism office?”

What will supercharge this race is the fact that Gov. Jindal is at the top of every list as a Vice-Presidential candidate in 2012.  Jindal is running for reelection in 2011 and isn’t going to run for President in 2012, but the odds are very high that he will asked to join the ticket.  And with our current national environment, it certainly appears that the GOP ticket will have a very good chance against Obama/Biden in 2012.

If Jindal were to become Vice-President, the Lieutenant Governor would take over and would be Governor for the three remaining years of Jindal’s term.  That’s why this race is a big deal.  The idea to abolish the post would take 2/3 of each house in the legislature, and that’s simply not going to happen — there will be an election.

With that in mind, who are the contenders?

1. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne.  Dardenne will almost certainly run and will be perceived as the favorite.  He had been considering a primary challege to Vitter this year and passed on that largely because of this opportunity.  According to his last annual campaign finance report, he had $272,000 in the bank at the beginning of 2009.   He’ll have to file a new report soon, and I would expect it to show him with over $400,000 in the bank.  Even though that may not seem like a large sum, Dardenne is a proven fundraiser and can raise a lot quickly.  Dardenne made a name for himself as a reformer during the Edwards era, but his voting record as a whole is definitely that of a “mainstream” or “moderate” Republican.  Dardenne might fare well in a runoff, but the danger for him is getting squeezed from the right and the left and failing to make the runoff.
2. State Treasurer John Kennedy.  Kennedy still has relatively high name recognition in the wake of his unsuccessful campaign against Mary Landrieu in 2008.  He had $524,000 in his state campaign account at the end of 2008 and likely has more now.  He’s been getting a lot of good press for his role in the Streamlining Government Commission, especially for his push for the state to lay off 15,000 workers.  Kennedy ran as a conservative in 2008, but Landrieu repeatedly blasted him as a “confused politician” for his previous life as a liberal.  If he runs, expect this site to get cranked up again.  Kennedy’s bigger problem, though, is that he lost in 2004 and 2008 when he tried to move up from his present position; he can’t afford to lose again if he ever wants to be anything more than State Treasurer (as he clearly does).
3. Family Research Council Director Tony Perkins.  Tony Perkins has been FRC Director for over six years, and it may be time for him to throw his hat into the ring again.  Perkins would certainly be able to raise the money necessary to be competitive, and he’s run statewide before.  Louisiana is more conservative than it’s ever been, and the political environment right now is ideal for a genuine conservative like him.  Since social conservatives would immediately rally behind him, he could focus his campaign on economic issues.  If Perkins doesn’t run, conservatives will find someone to rally behind, but the odds of success will be lower.
4. Whoever Jindal Picks.   This assumes that Governor Jindal doesn’t punt by simply picking a caretaker who pledges not to run for a full term — a viable option that avoids political risk and one that he is considering.  If he doesn’t choose to go that route, the new interim Lieutenant Governor would have the powerful advantages of incumbency and the governor’s support.  If he were to lose, however, it would be a serious blow to Governor Jindal’s prestige and political power.  On the other hand, if he wins, it would greatly strengthen Jindal’s ability to leave Louisiana in 2012, knowing that the state would be led by someone he trusts.  If he decides to pick someone who intends to run for the seat, he has to pick a winner.

I’m ultimately dismissive of Democratic prospects to win the race.  State Senate President Joel Chaisson would start the race without any statewide name recognition, and his annual report at the end of 2008 only showed $64,000 in the bank.  Sharon Weston Broome would boost her profile with a strong campaign, but she is no threat to actually win.  As for Kathleen Blanco, who happens to have $2 million in the bank, I wouldn’t care if she had $20 million or $200 million — it wouldn’t work.  If the Democrats unite behind one candidate, that candidate could make a runoff, but would likely lose there.  Even if the Democrats had a strong candidate, conservatives are likely going to turn out in force on November 2nd and give David Vitter a 60-40 victory.  Except in the 2nd Congressional District, Democratic turnout is going to be very low, and conservatives are energized as never before.  A Republican will win this race, and that will mean that every statewide elected official except Mary Landrieu will be a Republican – shocking for anyone who remembers the Louisiana of 20 years ago.