House District 101

In this race in New Orleans East to fill a vacancy left by the election of (term limited) Cedric Richmond to the US House, there was little suspense as to the outcome. Attorney/SUNO administrator Wesley Bishop collected an impressive array of endorsements from Mayor Mitch Landrieu to Cedric Richmond, and just about every other elected official in Orleans Parish. He received 75% of the vote in a low turnout race that only saw an 11% voter turnout.

Senate District 22

Continue reading at http://winwithjmc.com/archives/2330

John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

//

Our buddy Quin Hillyer notes that Gelinas is a Tulane grad, so her knowledge of the Big Easy is more than just based on a policy-wonk analysis of crime rates and educational studies. That’s quite clear in the article; the pride in seeing things improve in New Orleans is obvious throughout the piece.

The shock of Katrina, it turns out, produced a surprising renaissance in citizen initiative, one result of which was widespread recognition among New Orleanians that all that federal cash wasn’t going to solve the city’s long-standing problems on its own. Instead, engaged residents have kept local politicians on their toes, making sure that they use the recovery funds to transform and rejuvenate the city. They have taught the rest of the country, still reeling from the financial and economic crisis, a lesson: how to do recovery right.

Gelinas goes through a litany of the changes which have hit the criminal justice and educational systems of the city, complete with the new district attorney and police chief and the transformation of the schools in the city to charters. What she also mentions is the rise of the city’s entrepreneurial class, telling the story of Nic Perkin and Justin Brownhill, a couple of New Yorkers who airdropped into the city after Katrina to open the Receivables Exchange - a Web-based clearinghouse for companies and individuals to trade bills of lading and other receivables as commodities. The exchange now has 55 employees in its downtown headquarters and continues to grow.

Perkin and Brownhill picked New Orleans for hardheaded reasons, not emotional ones. They needed the East Coast time zone to run a financial business, as well as a legal environment favorable to trading receivables (Louisiana had it—who knew?). They also wanted someplace cheap. At a start-up company, Perkin explains, “every dollar makes a difference.” New Orleans, with low taxes and inexpensive commercial and residential real estate, fit the bill. Three years on, Perkin thinks that he and Brownhill made the right call: their company, the Receivables Exchange, has grown from five local employees to 55. The partners have found that many of the talented people who left the city for better economic opportunity long before Katrina are eager to return, helping reverse the brain drain—a sign of the resurgent hope in New Orleans. And Perkin and Brownhill have discovered a benefit in the ease of persuading potential clients or vendors to come to New Orleans for a meeting: it’s a short flight from both coasts, and visitors enjoy the food and the sights.

Gelinas doesn’t mention that the state of Louisiana is contributing to the educational revival by providing private-school sholarships for well over 1,000 Orleans Parish students, which is a precursor to what will hopefully become a much expanded school choice program. One item we can add to the entrepreneurial revival is an anecdote we picked up from a startup operator in the city shortly following Ray Nagin’s re-election. That entrepreneur said he’d voted for Nagin over Mitch Landrieu for reasons you wouldn’t expect.

“I love Nagin,” he said. “He’s a terrible mayor. He’s incompetent as hell. But because he can’t get anything done, he generally has no choice but to leave people like me alone. And because of that I’m free from bureaucrats sticking their noses and fingers into my business. I can focus on doing my job. Somebody who’s more effective probably makes my life more difficult.”

Whether Landrieu will reinvigorate the city’s bureaucracy to impinge upon legitimate business or just improve on the things Nagin did a horrible job with is still unknown. But Gelinas’ point does stand that New Orleans is no longer a city whose residents will stand for failed government such as Landrieu’s predecessors offered.

New Orleans could still fail, of course. The city has yet to prove that it has the political fortitude to drive down crime and keep it low. Social problems, including young single motherhood, still pervade whole neighborhoods. Complacency and voter apathy could return. The infrastructure that the feds are building could remain unfinished. The newcomers could give up—just as previous New Orleanians, both native and transplanted, reluctantly gave up on the city before Katrina.

But for now, New Orleans has something that it hasn’t had in decades: optimism. That’s an asset that the whole country could use a dose of.

First, Sen. David Vitter is now touting a raft of endorsements from Democrat politicians across the state. A campaign release today includes a statement from more than 30 Democrat officeholders in support of the Republican incumbent…

“As Louisiana Democrats, we strongly endorse David Vitter for reelection to the U.S. Senate for two reasons.  First, David represents our mainstream Louisiana views on such critical issues as jobs and the federal debt.  Second, David is a very effective partner working with us to meet key Louisiana needs including law enforcement, highways, and hurricane and flood protection.  Please join us in voting for David Vitter on November 2nd.”

The officials who signed the statement:

Parish Presidents

Parish President Riley “Pee-Wee” Berthelot (D), Parish President of West Baton Rouge Parish
Parish President Gordon Burgess (D), Parish President of Tangipahoa Parish
Parish President Don Menard (D), Parish President of St. Landry Parish
Parish President Richard Thomas (D), Parish President of Washington Parish

Sheriffs

Sheriff Larry Cox (D), Sheriff of Madison Parish
Sheriff Willie Graves (D), Sheriff of Livingston Parish
Sheriff Steve May (D), Sheriff of Caldwell Parish
Sheriff Charles McDonald (D), Sheriff of Richland Parish
Sheriff Wayne Melancon (D), Sheriff of Acadia Parish
Sheriff Mike Tubbs (D), Sheriff of Morehouse Parish
Sheriff Jeffrey Wiley (D), Sheriff of Ascension Parish

State Senators

State Senator Elbert Guillory (D), State Senator for District 24

Mayors

Mayor Dale Barnett (D), Mayor of Plain Dealing
Mayor Stein Baughman (D), Mayor of Farmerville
Mayor Carroll Breaux (D), Mayor of Springhill
Mayor Danny Cupit (D), Mayor of Westlake
Mayor Terry Duhon (D), Mayor of Jennings
Mayor Dan Hollingsworth (D), Mayor of Ruston
Mayor Estes LeDoux (D), Mayor of Kinder
Mayor Thomas Nelson (D), Mayor of St. Martinsville
Mayor Jimbo Petitjean (D), Mayor of Acadia
Mayor Reggie Skains (D), Mayor of Downsville
Mayor Kenny Stinson (D), Mayor of Vinton

District Attorneys

District Attorney Leon Cannizarro, Jr. (D), District Attorney for Orleans Parish
District Attorney Paul Connick, Jr. (D), District Attorney for Jefferson Parish

Councilmen and Councilwomen, Police Jurors

Councilwoman Raylyn Beevers (D), Councilwoman for City of Gretna
Councilman Joey Cehan (D), Councilman for Terrebonne Parish
Councilman Larry Cochran (D), Councilman for St. Charles Parish
Councilwoman Marla Cooper (D), Councilwoman for Plaquemines Parish
Councilman Shelly Tastet (D), Councilman for St. Charles Parish
Councilman Trae Welch (D), Councilman for East Baton Rouge Parish

Not to be completely outdone, Vitter’s opponent in the upcoming election Charlie Melancon, who it appears no longer has the funds to run TV ads, picked up an endorsement from a more prominent Democrat official – New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu. Landrieu’s endorsement statement is somewhat peculiar…

“It’s always about putting Louisiana first,” Mayor Landrieu said. “It’s not about political party. … The people of New Orleans will be better if we have Charlie Melancon as our second United States senator.”

Perhaps Landrieu meant to say “better off,” but the statement as quoted by the New Orleans Times-Picayune might be interpreted as a prediction about the manners and comportment of the Big Easy’s denizens. His sister, Sen. Mary Landrieu, also endorsed Melancon in terms which make it sound like she’s either a lot more partisan than Mitch is or makes endorsements out of personal pique…

“Sen. Vitter is the kind of senator who fights for headlines,” Sen. Landrieu said. “I need a partner who fights for Louisiana every day.”

The Lieutenant Governor’s race also saw some endorsements of interest. Republican Jay Dardenne, the current Secretary of State, picked up endorsements from a pair of media entities – the Baton Rouge Business Report and the Monroe News-Star.

The Business Report’s publisher Rolfe McCollister said in his statement endorsing Dardenne that Democrat Caroline Fayard is unconvincing when she says partisan politics aren’t important to her candidacy.

In the event something should ever happen to the governor, the lieutenant governor must step in. And it is clear that Dardenne, a Republican, has the experience and conservative credentials that Louisiana needs. He will also do a good job in running the office of the lieutenant governor and promoting tourism.

Caroline Fayard has an impressive résumé and made a strong showing for someone in her first race by making the runoff. But while she seems to want to keep people from learning she’s a Democrat and says “parties or labels” don’t matter, her record of support for one party—Democratic—is also pretty impressive. Fayard worked for Hillary Clinton in President Bill Clinton’s White House. Photos of Fayard with President Clinton and President Barack Obama are featured on her website. So, when I read on her website that she wants to “attack wasteful spending” and “will advocate for better government—not more government,” I have to say it rings a bit hollow. Sounds like something a political consultant wrote to fool conservatives and Republicans. I have rarely met a Democrat who doesn’t think more government or more spending will somehow solve our problems. And that is certainly true of Clinton and Obama. Seems like Fayard has a lot of respect for the kind of “career politicians” she criticizes.

The News-Star, meanwhile, touted Dardenne’s record of competence in his current job and credited his vision for promoting the state’s tourism industry.

Jay Dardenne,  currently the Louisiana secretary  of state, has served the state with integrity and a public spirit that  warrants his election as lieutenant governor.

Dardenne, a  Republican, bears sufficient character and stature to lead the state should  the governor not finish his term. He also has the savvy and marketing skills  to sell the state’s myriad tourism features.

As secretary of state,  Dardenne has overseen the growth and development of numerous state museums  under his office’s direction, including several in northeastern  Louisiana. He has  worked hard to foster expansion of facilities at the Chennault Aviation and  Military  Museum in  Monroe and the  State  Cotton  Museum in  Lake  Providence, and  worked hard to help effect creation of the Eddie  G.  Robinson  Museum in  Grambling. His initiatives with the Heroes and Heritage Trails have created  new excitement about the 16 museums under Dardenne’s  direction.

His efforts concerning  the museums show Dardenne has the stuff to be the state’s chief tourism  official. As lieutenant governor, Dardenne’s primary duties would focus on  promoting culture, recreation and tourism in the state. Few public leaders  have schooled themselves as well as Dardenne about the state’s cultural  treasures, a fascinating public speaker and effective salesman for what is  great about Louisiana — all of it, including the northeastern  corner.

Dardenne has earned  the chance to step up to new opportunities.

Click on the bad-ass image to donate!

And he wants you to know that he doesn’t work for the state. The state works for him.

Via American Zombie, which has done outstanding work detailing the more substantial abuses Richmond is apparently guilty of. A full expose’ of his non-profit skullduggery by the Times-Picayune, WWL, Fox 8 (Lee Zurik, call your office) or even CityBusiness is long overdue.

President Obama says Richmond “shares our values.” If that’s true, maybe Obama’s talking about the fact Richmond stinks at pool the way Obama sucks at bowling.

Which is why we’re here…

It’s great to be back in New Orleans, and an honor to be back at Xavier University. I’m inspired to spend time with folks who have demonstrated what it means to persevere in the face of tragedy – and rebuild in the face of ruin. Thank you, Jade, for your introduction – and congratulations on being crowned Miss Xavier.

As Jade said, she was a junior at Ben Franklin High School five years ago when the storm came. After Katrina, Ben Franklin High was terribly damaged by wind and water. Millions of dollars were needed to rebuild the school. Many feared it would take years to reopen – if it could reopen at all. But then something remarkable happened. Parents and teachers, students and volunteers got to work making repairs. Donations came in from across New Orleans and around the world. And soon, silent, darkened corridors were bright and filled with the sounds of young men and women, including Jade, heading to class again. Jade then committed to Xavier, a University that likewise refused to succumb to despair. So Jade, like so many students here, embodies hope – and that sense of hope in difficult times is what I came to talk about today.

It has been five years since Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast. There is no need to dwell on what you experienced and what the world witnessed: water pouring through broken levees; mothers holding their children above the waterline; people stranded on rooftops begging for help; bodies lying in the streets of a great American city. It was a natural disaster but also a manmade catastrophe; a shameful breakdown in government that left countless men, women, and children abandoned and alone. Shortly after the storm, I came down to Houston to spend time with some of the folks who took shelter there. I’ll never forget what one woman told me. “We had nothing before the hurricane,” she said. “Now we got less than nothing.”

Obama’s statement that those who chose not to evacuate from New Orleans after being ordered to by local authorities were “abandoned and alone” is a bald-faced lie. Precisely when were these people “abandoned and alone?” Was it immediately after the storm passed and the levees broke, when Coast Guard helicopters and citizens in boats rescued tens of thousands of people from their homes? Was it 72 hours later, when the National Guard arrived in deuce-and-a-half trucks loaded with supplies to help evacuate the Superdome and the Convention Center?

There was a shameful breakdown, all right. The fact that tens of thousands of New Orleanians were conditioned to believe that government, rather than they themselves, were responsible for taking control of their own safety indicates a breakdown on a major scale. And Obama’s policies seek to compound this problem for political gain.

 In the years that followed, New Orleans could have remained a symbol of destruction and decay; of a storm that came and the inadequate response that followed. It was not hard to imagine a day when we’d tell our children of a once vibrant and wonderful city laid low by indifference and neglect. But that is not what happened. It’s not what happened at Ben Franklin. It’s not what happened at Xavier. And that’s not what happened across New Orleans and the Gulf Coast. It is true that this city has become a symbol. But it’s a symbol of resilience, of community, of the fundamental responsibility we have for one another.

He’s got the first two right. New Orleans has proven its resilience, though the Saints winning the Super Bowl, which had almost nothing to do with government (the state took steps to induce Tom Benson not to pull the team out of the city, but no government official signed Drew Brees, drafted Marcus Colston or found Pierre Thomas), did more to create community than any billion-dollar federal program ever could. As for “the fundamental responsibility we have for one another,” the lesson of Katrina is that fundamentally you’ve got to take responsibility for yourself, and not burden others, during an emergency like that storm.

We see that at Xavier. Less than a month after the storm struck, amidst debris and flood-damaged buildings, President Francis promised that this university would reopen in a matter of months. Some said he was crazy. But they didn’t count on what would happen when one force of nature met another. By January – four months later – class was in session. Less than a year after the storm, I had the privilege of delivering a commencement address to the largest graduating class in Xavier’s history.

Xavier’s post-Katrina recovery is a terrific story. It’s also a private sector story.

We see that in the efforts of Joycelyn Heintz, who is here today. Katrina left her house under 14 feet of water. But after volunteers helped her rebuild, she joined AmeriCorps to serve the community herself – part of a wave of AmeriCorps members who have been critical to the rebirth of this city and the rebuilding of this region. Today, she manages a local center for mental health and wellness.

Maybe I’m out of touch, and I certainly don’t mean to diminish anyone’s role in the city’s recovery, but in five years I’ve heard nothing about AmeriCorps being critical to New Orleans’ rebirth. Guess you learn something new every day.

We see the symbol that this city has become in the St. Bernard Project, whose co-founder Liz McCartney is with us. This endeavor has drawn volunteers from across the country to rebuild hundreds of homes throughout St. Bernard Parish and the Lower Ninth Ward.

I saw the sense of purpose people felt after the storm when I visited Musicians’ Village in the Ninth Ward back in 2006. Volunteers were not only constructing houses; they were coming to together to preserve the culture of music and art that is part of the soul of this city – and the soul of this country. Today, more than 70 homes are complete, and construction is underway on the Ellis Marsalis Center for Music.

We see the dedication to the community in the efforts of Xavier graduate Dr. Regina Benjamin, who mortgaged her home and maxed out her credit cards so she could reopen her Bayou la Batre clinic to care for victims of the storm – and who is now our nation’s Surgeon General.

Thanks for depriving New Orleans of one of its top physicians, Mr. President.

And we see that resilience – that hope – exemplified by students at Carver High School. They’ve helped raise more than a million dollars to build a new community track and football field – their “Field of Dreams” – for the Ninth Ward.

Because of you – all the advocates and organizers here today, folks who are leading the way toward a better future for this city with innovative approaches to fight poverty, improve health care, reduce crime, and create opportunities for young people – because of you, New Orleans is coming back.

Five years ago, many questioned whether people could ever return to this city. Today, New Orleans is one of the fastest growing cities in America, with a big surge in new small businesses. Five years ago, the Saints had to play every game on the road because of the damage to the Superdome. Well, two weeks ago, we welcomed the Saints to the White House as Super Bowl champions. We marked the occasion with a 30-foot po’boy made with shrimp and oysters from the Gulf. There were no leftovers.

There’s a big surge in small businesses partially because your predecessor got the government out of the way and gave favorable tax treatment to the place, Mr. President.

Of course, I don’t have to tell you that there are still too many vacant and overgrown lots. There are still too many students attending classes in trailers. There are still too many people unable to find work. And there are still too many New Orleanians who have not been able to come home. So while an incredible amount of progress has been made, on this fifth anniversary, I wanted to come here and tell the people of this city directly: my administration is going to stand with you – and fight alongside you – until the job is done.

He’s not fighting alongside us. He’s behind us with a garrotte. This president had an estimate of 23,000 lost jobs in hand when he allowed his Interior Secretary to impose a ban on offshore drilling in the Gulf and it didn’t bother him in the least. If this is his idea of fighting alongside us, we’re better off abandoned and alone.

When I took office, I directed my cabinet to redouble our efforts, to put an end to the turf wars between agencies, to cut the red tape and the bureaucracy. I wanted to make sure that the federal government was a partner – instead of an obstacle – to the recovery of the Gulf Coast. And members of my cabinet – including my EPA administrator, Lisa Jackson, who grew up in Pontchartrain Park – have come down here dozens of times. This wasn’t just to make appearances – to just be in a few photos putting up dry wall. This was so that they could listen, learn, and make real changes so that government was actually working for you.

Virtually every visit by a member of Obama’s cabinet, at least during the saga of the BP oil spill, has been followed by a policy change bordering on insanity. As for Jackson, she’s directly responsible for 540 miles of oiled shoreline for having insisted on the adherence to a nonsensical 15-parts-per-million marine discharge standard which rendered skimming operations ineffective for two months. She’s also working on a host of extralegal government intrusions which will serve to damage Louisiana industries and destroy local jobs. Ask around, Mr. President – Miz Jackson isn’t considered a local favorite in these parts.

For example, efforts to rebuild schools and hospitals, to repair damaged roads and bridges, and to get people back into their homes, were tied up for years in a tangle of disagreements and byzantine rules. So when I took office, working with Senator Mary Landrieu, we put in place a new way of resolving disputes, so that funds set aside for rebuilding efforts actually went toward rebuilding efforts. As a result, more than 170 projects are getting underway, including work on firehouses, police stations, roads, sewer systems, health clinics, libraries, and universities.

We’re tackling the corruption and inefficiency that has long plagued the New Orleans Housing Authority. We’re helping homeowners rebuild and making it easier for renters to find affordable options. And we’re helping people to move out of temporary homes. When I took office, more than three years after the storm, tens of thousands of families were still stuck in disaster housing – with many living in small trailers provided by FEMA. We were spending huge sums of money on temporary shelter when we knew it would be better for families, and less costly for taxpayers, to help people get into affordable, stable, and more permanent housing. So we’ve helped make it possible for people to find those homes, dramatically reducing the number of families in emergency housing.

In other words, most of the recovery work had already been done and Obama is now taking credit for things which were put in motion long before he took office.

On the health care front, as a candidate for President, I pledged to make sure we were helping New Orleans recruit doctors and nurses, and rebuild medical facilities – including a new veterans hospital. Well, we’ve resolved a long-standing dispute – one that tied up hundreds of millions of dollars – to fund the replacement for Charity Hospital. And in June, Veterans Secretary Ric Shinseki came to New Orleans for the groundbreaking of that new VA hospital.

This one is breathtaking. An arbitration panel ruled against the Obama administration in January and in favor of state officials on the Charity Hospital issue, and yet the President is going to take credit for building the facility? Wow. That’s a little like the Japanese taking credit for ending World War II.

In education, we’ve made strides as well. As you know, schools in New Orleans were falling behind long before Katrina. But in the years since the storm, a lot of public schools opened themselves up to innovation and reform. As a result, we’re actually seeing rising achievement and New Orleans is fast becoming a model for the nation. This is yet another sign that you’re not only rebuilding; you’re rebuilding stronger than before. Just this Friday, my administration announced a final agreement on $1. 8 billion dollars for Orleans Parish schools – money that had been locked up for years – so folks here could determine how best to restore the school system.

Riiiiight. New Orleans is benefiting from charter schools and a state scholarship program which operates a lot like a voucher program. In fact, it operates just like the voucher program in Washington, DC that Obama strangled to death as soon as he took office. Another breathtaker.

And in a city that has known too much violence and too much despair – that has seen too many young people lost to drugs and criminal activity – we’ve got a Department of Justice committed to working with New Orleans to fight the scourge of violent crime, to weed out corruption in the police force, and to ensure the criminal justice system works for everyone here. And I want to thank Mitch Landrieu, your new mayor, for his commitment to that partnership.

No mention of thanks to Sen. David Vitter, who had to hold up judicial appointments in Louisiana for the better part of a year so Jim Letten – the primary DoJ representative in New Orleans – could keep his job when Obama clearly had an eye on replacing the former George W. Bush appointee. Letten is widely regarded as the single most important force in the New Orleans area for fighting crime and corruption.

And let’s not get started on the “partnership” between Landrieu and Eric Holder. That’s a column, or several, all to itself. 

Even as we continue our recovery efforts, we’re also focusing on preparing for future threats – so that there is never another disaster like Katrina ever again. The largest civil works project in American history is underway to build a fortified levee system. And as I pledged as a candidate, we’re going to finish this system by next year, so that this city is protected against a 100-year storm. Because we should not be playing Russian roulette every Hurricane season. We’re also working to restore protective wetlands and natural barriers that were not only damaged by Katrina but had been rapidly disappearing for decades.

The levee system was already in the works before Obama got elected, so for him to take credit for it is another fraud. As for coastal restoration, has the President been instrumental in any progress on that front?

In Washington, we are restoring competence and accountability. I’m proud that my FEMA Director, Craig Fugate, has 25 years of experience in disaster management in Florida, a state that has known its share of hurricanes. We’ve put together a group led by Secretary Donovan and Secretary Napolitano to look at disaster recovery across the country. We’re improving coordination on the ground, modernizing emergency communications, and helping families plan for a crisis. And we’re putting in place reforms so that never again in America is someone left behind in a disaster because they’re living with a disability or they’re elderly or infirmed.

Lord help us.

Finally, even as you’ve been buffeted by Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, as well as the broader recession that has devastated communities across the country, in recent months the Gulf Coast has seen new hardship as a result of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. And just as we have sought to ensure that we are doing what it takes to recover from Katrina, my administration has worked hard to match our efforts on the spill to what you need on the ground.

From the start, I promised you two things. One is that we would see to it that the leak was stopped. And it has been. But the second promise I made was that we would stick with our efforts, and stay on BP, until the damage to the Gulf and to the lives of the people in this region was reversed. And this, too, is a promise we will keep.

I can’t respond to this without profanity. Moratorium, anyone?

That is why we rapidly launched the largest response to an environmental disaster in American history. This has included 47,000 people on the ground and 5,700 vessels on the water to contain and clean up the oil. When I heard that BP was not moving fast enough on claims, we told BP to set aside $20 billion in a fund – managed by an independent third party – to help all those whose lives have been turned upside down by the spill. And we will continue to rely on sound science – carefully monitoring waters and coastlines as well as the health of people along the Gulf – to deal with any long-term effects of the oil spill. We are going to stand with you until the oil is cleaned up, the environment is restored, polluters are held accountable, communities are made whole, and this region is back on its feet.

Mr. President, your independent third party, who actually works for you, seems to be doing a heck of a lot more to deny claims than pay them. You also wasted 60 days in standing that third party up, and the $20 billion fund you extracted from BP allowed them to write off $10 billion in taxes this year – which essentially put the paying of claims on the back of the U.S. taxpayer, in total contravention of your representations. The idea that Obama is standing with us isn’t one shared by most of the people of South Louisiana, for these and other reasons. 

So that is how we are helping this city, this state, and this region to recover from the worst natural disaster in our nation’s history. We are cutting through the tangle of red tape that has impeded rebuilding efforts for years. We are making government work better and smarter – in coordination with one of the most expansive non-profit efforts in American history. And we are helping state and local leaders to address serious problems that had been neglected for decades – problems that existed long before storm came, and have continued after the waters receded – from the levee system to the justice system, from the health care system to the education system.

Frankly, we’d be better off neglected than to endure much more “better and smarter” government from the likes of this president. Reforms in the judicial and education systems in New Orleans have come from local people acting to reform them – not Washington.

Together, we are helping to make New Orleans a place that stands for what we can do in America – not just for what we can’t do. And ultimately, that must be the legacy of Katrina: not one of neglect, but of action; not one of indifference, but of empathy; not of abandonment, but of a community working together to meet shared challenges.

The truth is, there are some wounds that do not heal. There are some losses that cannot be repaid. And for many who lived through those harrowing days five years ago, there is a searing memory that time will not erase. But even amid so much tragedy, we saw the stirrings of a brighter day. We saw men and women risking their own safety to save strangers. We saw nurses staying behind to care for the sick and injured. We saw families coming home to clean up and rebuild – not just their own homes, but their neighbors’ as well. We saw music and Mardi Gras and the vibrancy of this town undiminished. And we have seen many return to their beloved city with a newfound sense of obligation to this community.

When I came here four years ago, one thing that I found striking was all the greenery that had begun to come back. I was reminded of a passage from the book of Job. “There is hope for a tree if it be cut down that it will sprout again, and that its tender branch will not cease.” The work ahead will not be easy. There will be setbacks. There will be challenges along the way. But today, thanks to you and the people of this great city, New Orleans is blossoming once more.

Thank you.

Yeah, thanks. Thanks for nothing. Lift the moratorium before you show back up in Louisiana, Mr. President, if you want to have any credibility in claiming to be helping us.

• Any talk about David Vitter’s vulnerability in a primary or general election is just that – talk. He received a whopping 88% of the vote against two primary opponents (one of whom, Chet Traylor, initially got plenty of favorable press time to promote his candidacy), with at least 66% of the vote in each parish.
• If anything, Charlie Melancon ought to be more concerned. His two opponents were even less known to Democratic/Independent voters than Vitter’s opponents,  yet he only received 71% of the vote. More revealing is the distribution of that vote – while his highest percentages were in parishes with a large black population and/or his own Congressional district, his performance in several rural parishes was downright embarrassing. In fact, in five rural north Louisiana parishes, he received less than 50% of the vote.

Melancon Vote By Parish

• Republican enthusiasm was present at the polls today, just like it was for early voting. Though only 26% of the voters are registered Republican, Republican turnout was 2.5 times that of Democratic/Independent turnout (Independents can only vote in Democratic primaries), which resulted in 47% of the vote being cast in the Republican primary.
• Congressional primaries, with one major exception, were uneventful. Five Republican Congressmen (Steve Scalise of Metairie, “Joseph” Cao of New Orleans, John Fleming of Minden, Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge, and Charles Boustany of Lafayette) received no primary opposition. Six year incumbent Rodney Alexander dispatched his primary opponent with 89% of the vote (he received at least 79% of the vote in each parish), which is identical to the 90% of the vote he received in the Republican primary two years ago.
• On the Democratic side, both contested primaries ended up being settled tonight. In New Orleans, state representative Cedric Richmond won his primary with 60% of the vote against three opponents – it didn’t hurt that he had the Landrieu endorsement. Up in northwest Louisiana, Methodist minister David Melville won his primary with 81% of the vote.
• (UPDATED 8/31 AM) The one primary which was bitterly contested, and will go into a runoff, was the Republican primary for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat, which stretches from Chalmette to New Iberia as far north as Gonzales. Former House Speaker (and former Democrat) Hunt Downer started off the heavy favorite, but made a critical error near the end of the campaign: he backed out of a candidate debate sponsored by the Baton Rouge Tea Party – to attend a fundraiser. This cancellation enraged Tea Party activists, who immediately began blasting Downer for this, for his legislative voting record, and the fact that he had served in the (Democratic) Blanco administration. While attorney Jeff Landry benefitted from this “establishment vs insurgent” matchup, engineer Kristian Magar also made a respectable showing, with a considerable assist from Tea Party activists through energetic use of social networking sites like Facebook.  In the end, Landry received 49.6% of the vote, compared to 36% for Downer and 14% for Magar. Will there be a runoff ? In addition to the fact that Landry was about 100 votes short of winning outright, the distribution of the vote should give Downer pause while he ponders whether it is worth the time and expense to contest the runoff. Basically, Downer was a “one parish candidate” –though he carried his home parish of Terrebonne with a very respectable 64% of the vote (versus Landry’s 26% and Magar’s 10%), he lost every other parish to Landry. In fact, outside of Terrebonne, 59% of the Republican vote went to Landry, while Downer received 25% and Magar received 16% - it’s important to note that both Landry and Magar shared an Iberia Parish voting base. Curiously, the absentee vote (which made up 17% of the total) went 52-40% for Landry, while those who voted on Election day gave Landry 49%, Downer 35%, and Magar 16%.

(UPDATED 8/31 AM) In addition to the Republican runoff for the 3^rd Congressional district, the “everything else” primary is in five weeks on Saturday, October 2. While the Lieutenant Governor’s race at the top of the ticket, there is also a myriad of judgeship races and municipal/school board races. The deadline to register to vote in this election is Wednesday, September 1. Early voting will be from September 18 to 25, and the deadline to mail in a ballot (that is, if the voter will be unable to make it to the polls on Election Day) is Friday, October 1.

Finally, West Virginia is having a special election this November to fill the seat of the late senator Robert Byrd. The primry to choose party nominees was held tonight, but was relatively uneventful. Governor Joe Manchin received 73% of the Democratic primary vote, while mining company owner John Raese (who has run several times before statewide and lost) received 71% of the vote in the Republican primary.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Currently, eight candidates (five Republicans and three Democrats) have filed for this race. We are focusing our analysis on the candidates we consider “major” at this point based on their name recognition, fundraising, and/or elected office held. On the Republican side, there is Secretary of State “Jay” Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, country singer Sammy Kershaw (who ran for the office in 2007), and St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. None of the three Democrats have much statewide name recognition, but of those running, we believe that his legislative tenure, combined with his chairing the Senate Retirement Committee, gives Morgan City state senator “Butch” Gautreaux some visibility – at least to to the constituency of state employees and/or retirees.As we construct our parish by parish predictions, several things must first be considered:

(1) The “Cypress Curtain” – Recent elections starting with the 2006 Secretary of State’s race have been characterized by a cultural dividing line running roughly along the length of the Atchafalaya swamp. East of that dividing line are the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets. In this more urbanized part of the state (which contains 53% of the registered voters), voters tend to prefer more media savvy candidates who project a more moderate tone. In both of Jay Dardenne’s elections, this region of the state has consistently been his electoral stronghold. This region also has more strongly preferred “Bobby” Jindal and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu. And even when Mike Huckabee carried the state in the 2008 GOP presidential preference primary, John McCain led 47-37% east of the Atchafalaya.

In this race, we believe that Jay Dardenne will run most strongly east of the “Cypress Curtain”: not only did he carry most of the parishes in this region in his first race (in fact, those were the only parishes he carried), but his regional strength was confirmed in his 2007 re-election. While he was re-elected by a solid 63-31% margin, he won metro New Orleans 66-29% and the Baton Rouge media market 71-26%. West of the “curtain” he won with a comfortable but lower 59-35% margin. His only distraction east of the “curtain” will be the candidacy of Roger Villere, who is from Jefferson Parish. West of the “curtain”, the electoral picture gets a little more complicated because of the presence of country singer Sammy Kershaw. Though his campaign was not as visible in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets, he still received 30% of the vote statewide compared to the 57% that then incumbent Mitch Landrieu received. West of the Atchafalaya, the Landrieu lead was only 48-40%, with most of that margin coming from northwest Louisiana. Without an incumbent in this race, we think Kershaw will do similarly well in the parishes west of the “curtain”, particularly the rural ones (Below is a graphical depiction of the regions of the state).

Regions of Louisiana

(2) Core Democratic vote – Though most of the psychic energy in this race comes from the Republican candidates, the reality is that there is still a significant bloc of votes available to any Democrat on either side of the Atchafalaya. This cohesive populist/Democratic vote consists of blacks and “yellow dog” Democrats and represents at least 30% of the vote in any given election. Though Jay Dardenne has shown the ability to attract some of this vote in his elections (for instance, he got 20 and 33% of the black vote, respectively, in his own East Baton Rouge Parish in both of his Secretary of State races), the last minute entry of three Democrats into the race means that a lot of this voter bloc will gravitate towards the Democratic candidates, and of those candidates, we believe that state senator “Butch” Gautreaux of Morgan City currently has the best chance of receiving this vote.

(3) The effect of local races on Democratic turnout – Overall, white turnout in the 2006 Secretary of State’s race was 28%, while black turnout was 20%. However, black turnout was boosted in Shreveport, Alexandria, and in parishes along the Mississippi River Delta due to hotly contested mayoral and legislative races there. Shreveport and Alexandria will again have hotly contested mayor’s races, and there will be a contested Democratic Congressional primary in New Orleans. We therefore have to assume that there will be some benefit accruing to the Democrats in these areas.

Given these considerations, what we see right now in the Lt. Governor’s race is a three way race. Jay Dardenne leads with 30%, followed by Sammy Kershaw with 27%, “Butch” Gautreaux with 26%, and the other candidates’ getting 17% (Roger Villere gets 11 of the remaining 17%). Keep in mind that a lot (i.e., candidate withdrawals, quality of commercials run, blunders, and so forth) can and will affect the ultimate outcome. However, we see this analysis as a snapshot of things given what we know of the candidate’s electoral strengths and weaknesses, with the following additional observations/caveats (our predictions by parish are here):

(1) As the “major” Democrat in the race, “Butch” Gautreaux will pretty much own the 30% populist vote base, especially when you get west of the Atchafalaya. We also believe that his performance in Caddo and Rapides Parishes will be aided by a strong black turnout due to contested mayor’s races in Shreveport and Alexandria;

(2) In his 2007 race for Lt. Governor, Sammy Kershaw was strong in the rural parishes, especially those west of the Atchafalaya. We think he can sustain strong voter support in these rural parishes again, which basically hurts the Villere campaign and, to a lesser extent, Jay Dardenne;

(3) Roger Villere is electorally boxed in as long as Kevin Davis and Sammy Kershaw remain in the race;

(4) Jay Dardenne’s base of the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets will mostly remain intact. He will, however, lose some of his support in the rural parishes to Sammy Kershaw.

(5) The wildcard in the race is the last minute entry of Caroline Fayard. Between her New Orleans base and her family connections to the Fayards (well known trial lawyers) in Livingston Parish, she has the potential to make this a race on the Democratic side. If this were to occur, any vote she receives will generally come at the expense of “Butch” Gautreaux, although she may hurt Jay Dardenne with more moderate voters in parishes east of the “Cypress Curtain” as well. Depending on how much she cuts into the Democratic vote, we can see a scenario where two of the Republicans, Sammy Kershaw and Jay Dardenne, would make the runoff, in which case Dardenne would win with about 55-60% of the vote.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – There are seven candidates in this race: Incumbent Republican David Vitter, Democrats Charlie Melancon and Cary Deaton, Libertarian Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008), and three Independents: Michael Brown of Shreveport, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Bob Lang if Natchitoches. Given Louisiana’s current (but recently repealed) congressional primary law, Melancon must win the Democratic primary on 8/28, while David Vitter and the three independents get a “free ride” electorally until the November election;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be contested Democratic primaries both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There are currently two contested Republican primaries: one for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry, while up in northeast Louisiana, 6 year incumbent Rodney Alexander has picked up a primary opponent:  Todd Slavant from Monroe, who has allied himself with the Tea Party movement. Furthermore, the November ballot will have three Independents: Anthony Marquize (who is running against “Joseph” Cao in New Orleans), Artis Cash (who is running against John Fleming in northwest Louisiana), and Tom Gibbs (who is running against Rodney Alexander in northeast Louisiana);

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – So far, the Lt. Governor’s race remains an all Republican race between Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), and Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight (she filed this morning);

Supreme Court, District 7 - This is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. So far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, only Boissiere and Holloway have filed for their seats;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far, although conservative Alan Seabaugh has mentioned his interest in the race in various Internet postings;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – While the Vitter/Melancon race has been going on for some time now, both candidates still have to get past their parties’ primaries. Senator Vitter will likely have minor primary opposition, while currently, Rep. Melancon is unopposed in the Democratic primary;

All 7 Congressional seats – We are not expecting much action in terms of the August 28 party primary, although the GOP primary for Charlie Melancon’s seat between New Iberia and Chalmette (including Gonzales) will be a hotly contested race. Additionally, at least two Democratic legislators want to recapture a Congressional seat in New Orleans from freshman Republican Joseph Cao;

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – this office was vacated when Mitch Landrieu was elected Mayor of New Orleans earlier this year. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is running for this office, but will face stiff opposition from GOP chairman Roger Villere in a race that already has similarities to the 2006 Jay Dardenne/Mike Francis contest that took place when Jay first sought the job of Secretary of State in 2006. In addition to the intraparty feud, there is a question as to whether the Democrats will actively contest this race;

Supreme Court, District 7 - this is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish.

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to (inner city) Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting;

Local races (School Board, Mayor of Alexandria/Shreveport, Police Chief, and similar local offices)

We will keep an eye on who has qualified, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

BATON ROUGE – Today, Governor Bobby Jindal announced that Scott Angelle will be his nominee to serve as Lieutenant Governor after Mitch Landrieu takes office as the Mayor of New Orleans. Angelle can begin serving as Lieutenant Governor upon confirmation by a majority vote of each house of the Legislature. Once Angelle assumes the role of Lieutenant Governor, he will step down as the Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources, but he will continue in his current part-time role as legislative liaison for the Governor’s Office.

Governor Jindal said, “Scott has worked closely with us for more than two years now as we worked to reform our state. He is a public servant to the core and his incredible work ethic is perhaps only out-matched by his heart. We have a critical agenda in the Legislature this year and Scott is a vital part of our team. We will continue to rely on his insight and direction in passing the budget and addressing our budget shortfalls – in addition to advancing our legislative package.”

Angelle has agreed not to run for the Lieutenant Governor’s office, which the Governor said was a requirement for anyone he nominated for the post. The Governor will appoint Robert Harper as acting Secretary for the Department of Natural Resources. Angelle plans to return to the agency once his tenure as Lieutenant Governor has finished. Harper is currently serving as Undersecretary at the Department of Natural Resources.

Scott Angelle Bio:

Scott Angelle, of Breaux Bridge, began serving as the Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources in 2004. For more than a year, he has also served as Governor Jindal’s legislative liaison.

Angelle led the state’s efforts in the Louisiana Legislature to pass a constitutional amendment dedicating future Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) revenues to finance the coastal restoration and hurricane protection plan, and he also led efforts to pass Legislation to create the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) to integrate coastal restoration and hurricane protection efforts in the state.

From 2000 to 2004, Angelle served as the Parish President of St. Martin Parish. Angelle was the first president in the parish’s history, and he worked to reduce business property taxes, upgrade the parish’s health care system and establish an advanced regional fire fighting training program.

He is chairman of the Louisiana State Mineral Board, a member of the Atchafalaya Basin Program Research and Promotion Board, and the LSU Center of Energy Studies Advisory Council. Angelle has a bachelor’s of science in petroleum land management from the University of Southwestern Louisiana (now the University of Louisiana in Lafayette).

Robert Harper Bio:

Robert Harper, of Baton Rouge, has served as Undersecretary of the Department of Natural Resources for nearly two decades. As Undersecretary of DNR, Harper oversees the agency’s Office of Management and Finance.

Harper has been employed by the State of Louisiana for the last 40 years. He began his career in 1970 spending 20 years as a senior budget analyst with the Division of Administration. Harper holds a bachelor’s of arts degree from Louisiana State University in political science and is married to Sherry Penney Harper.