Last night, both Louisiana and West Virginia conducted their Congressional primaries. Though the Louisiana Congressional primary was a very low turnout affair (7% overall turnout, with 13% on the GOP side and 5% on the Democratic/Independent side), there are several items which are worth mentioning:

• Any talk about David Vitter’s vulnerability in a primary or general election is just that – talk. He received a whopping 88% of the vote against two primary opponents (one of whom, Chet Traylor, initially got plenty of favorable press time to promote his candidacy), with at least 66% of the vote in each parish.
• If anything, Charlie Melancon ought to be more concerned. His two opponents were even less known to Democratic/Independent voters than Vitter’s opponents,  yet he only received 71% of the vote. More revealing is the distribution of that vote – while his highest percentages were in parishes with a large black population and/or his own Congressional district, his performance in several rural parishes was downright embarrassing. In fact, in five rural north Louisiana parishes, he received less than 50% of the vote.

Melancon Vote By Parish

• Republican enthusiasm was present at the polls today, just like it was for early voting. Though only 26% of the voters are registered Republican, Republican turnout was 2.5 times that of Democratic/Independent turnout (Independents can only vote in Democratic primaries), which resulted in 47% of the vote being cast in the Republican primary.
• Congressional primaries, with one major exception, were uneventful. Five Republican Congressmen (Steve Scalise of Metairie, “Joseph” Cao of New Orleans, John Fleming of Minden, Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge, and Charles Boustany of Lafayette) received no primary opposition. Six year incumbent Rodney Alexander dispatched his primary opponent with 89% of the vote (he received at least 79% of the vote in each parish), which is identical to the 90% of the vote he received in the Republican primary two years ago.
• On the Democratic side, both contested primaries ended up being settled tonight. In New Orleans, state representative Cedric Richmond won his primary with 60% of the vote against three opponents – it didn’t hurt that he had the Landrieu endorsement. Up in northwest Louisiana, Methodist minister David Melville won his primary with 81% of the vote.
• (UPDATED 8/31 AM) The one primary which was bitterly contested, and will go into a runoff, was the Republican primary for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat, which stretches from Chalmette to New Iberia as far north as Gonzales. Former House Speaker (and former Democrat) Hunt Downer started off the heavy favorite, but made a critical error near the end of the campaign: he backed out of a candidate debate sponsored by the Baton Rouge Tea Party – to attend a fundraiser. This cancellation enraged Tea Party activists, who immediately began blasting Downer for this, for his legislative voting record, and the fact that he had served in the (Democratic) Blanco administration. While attorney Jeff Landry benefitted from this “establishment vs insurgent” matchup, engineer Kristian Magar also made a respectable showing, with a considerable assist from Tea Party activists through energetic use of social networking sites like Facebook.  In the end, Landry received 49.6% of the vote, compared to 36% for Downer and 14% for Magar. Will there be a runoff ? In addition to the fact that Landry was about 100 votes short of winning outright, the distribution of the vote should give Downer pause while he ponders whether it is worth the time and expense to contest the runoff. Basically, Downer was a “one parish candidate” –though he carried his home parish of Terrebonne with a very respectable 64% of the vote (versus Landry’s 26% and Magar’s 10%), he lost every other parish to Landry. In fact, outside of Terrebonne, 59% of the Republican vote went to Landry, while Downer received 25% and Magar received 16% - it’s important to note that both Landry and Magar shared an Iberia Parish voting base. Curiously, the absentee vote (which made up 17% of the total) went 52-40% for Landry, while those who voted on Election day gave Landry 49%, Downer 35%, and Magar 16%.

(UPDATED 8/31 AM) In addition to the Republican runoff for the 3^rd Congressional district, the “everything else” primary is in five weeks on Saturday, October 2. While the Lieutenant Governor’s race at the top of the ticket, there is also a myriad of judgeship races and municipal/school board races. The deadline to register to vote in this election is Wednesday, September 1. Early voting will be from September 18 to 25, and the deadline to mail in a ballot (that is, if the voter will be unable to make it to the polls on Election Day) is Friday, October 1.

Finally, West Virginia is having a special election this November to fill the seat of the late senator Robert Byrd. The primry to choose party nominees was held tonight, but was relatively uneventful. Governor Joe Manchin received 73% of the Democratic primary vote, while mining company owner John Raese (who has run several times before statewide and lost) received 71% of the vote in the Republican primary.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Louisiana’s Congressional primaries are now a little over a week away. Early voting for the Congressional primaries started this past Saturday and will conclude this Saturday at 6PM. We are keeping track of the early voting numbers, and what we’ve noticed so far is as follows:

(1) We expected that the Congressional primaries would be a low turnout affair, and the early voting numbers still confirm this expectation. As of Tuesday evening, 12065 early votes have been cast. We project that in the end, there will be a early voting volume of 27300 (which equates to an estimated 6-19% overall turnout). To put this figure in perspective, in the moderate turnout 2007 Governor’s primary, 139400 early voted. And in the high turnout 2008 Presidential race, 283500 early voted;

(2) While there are contested Democratic and Republican primaries statewide for the Senate and in four Congressional districts, Republican enthusiasm has consistently been higher than the Democrats/Independents (Independents can vote in Democratic primaries). In a state where Democrats and Independents outnumber registered Republicans 2.85 to 1, 3.46 Republicans yesterday have shown up so far (this is an improvement from Saturday’s 3.22) for every Democrat/Independent who did. In fact, in 42 parishes, more Republicans physically showed up, with especially strong Republican early voting turnout in St Martin, Terrebonne, and Lafourche;

(3) To put the Republican early voting enthusiasm in perspective, the early vote as of Tuesday was 54-42% Republican (up from 53-43% Republican on Saturday). In the 2007 Governor’s race, Democrats led 52-36% in early voting, while in the 2008 Presidential race, Democrats led 58-29%;

(4) To what extent are Congressional primaries driving this turnout ? For the Democrats, not at all, while for the Republicans, it has helped quite a bit. While the Senate primaries are at the top of the ballot, there are also four contested House primaries. Democrats are holding Congressional primaries in the 2nd Congressional District (most of New Orleans and the Westbank) and 4th Congressional District (northwest Louisiana). Republican primaries are in the 3rd Congressional District (“Bayou country” between New Iberia and St Bernard Parish) and 5th Congressional District (northeast and central Louisiana). When we looked at the parishes where the Democratic Congressional primaries are being held, we noticed that 0.25% of Democrats/Independents early voted, which is about the statewide average of 0.26%. If we look at the parishes where Republican Congressional primaries are being held, we find that 1.24% have early voted, compared to a statewide average of 0.86%. In other words, even with a hotly contested Democratic primary in New Orleans, Republicans are even more enthusiastic about their House candidates where there are serously contested races.

Finally, there are a couple of things about early voting that need to be noted: (1) early voting is usually heaviest on the first and last days, and we are therefore not expecting the volume of early voting to increase until the last day; (2) we are making somewhat of a big deal about the early vote volume, because when the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting several years ago, more and more people are choosing to early vote, so a constituency of 5-15% of the vote is something a politician would be foolish to ignore – especially in a closely contested race; (3) these numbers are the ones that are typically reported on the TV screen several minutes after polls close at 8 PM.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

The conventional wisdom is that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a shoo in for the Lt Governor’s race. We would like to test that assumption by examining the strengths/weaknesses of the major candidates running in this race and projecting their vote totals on a parish by parish basis to predict the overall primary results.

Currently, eight candidates (five Republicans and three Democrats) have filed for this race. We are focusing our analysis on the candidates we consider “major” at this point based on their name recognition, fundraising, and/or elected office held. On the Republican side, there is Secretary of State “Jay” Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, country singer Sammy Kershaw (who ran for the office in 2007), and St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. None of the three Democrats have much statewide name recognition, but of those running, we believe that his legislative tenure, combined with his chairing the Senate Retirement Committee, gives Morgan City state senator “Butch” Gautreaux some visibility – at least to to the constituency of state employees and/or retirees.As we construct our parish by parish predictions, several things must first be considered:

(1) The “Cypress Curtain” – Recent elections starting with the 2006 Secretary of State’s race have been characterized by a cultural dividing line running roughly along the length of the Atchafalaya swamp. East of that dividing line are the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets. In this more urbanized part of the state (which contains 53% of the registered voters), voters tend to prefer more media savvy candidates who project a more moderate tone. In both of Jay Dardenne’s elections, this region of the state has consistently been his electoral stronghold. This region also has more strongly preferred “Bobby” Jindal and both Mitch and Mary Landrieu. And even when Mike Huckabee carried the state in the 2008 GOP presidential preference primary, John McCain led 47-37% east of the Atchafalaya.

In this race, we believe that Jay Dardenne will run most strongly east of the “Cypress Curtain”: not only did he carry most of the parishes in this region in his first race (in fact, those were the only parishes he carried), but his regional strength was confirmed in his 2007 re-election. While he was re-elected by a solid 63-31% margin, he won metro New Orleans 66-29% and the Baton Rouge media market 71-26%. West of the “curtain” he won with a comfortable but lower 59-35% margin. His only distraction east of the “curtain” will be the candidacy of Roger Villere, who is from Jefferson Parish. West of the “curtain”, the electoral picture gets a little more complicated because of the presence of country singer Sammy Kershaw. Though his campaign was not as visible in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets, he still received 30% of the vote statewide compared to the 57% that then incumbent Mitch Landrieu received. West of the Atchafalaya, the Landrieu lead was only 48-40%, with most of that margin coming from northwest Louisiana. Without an incumbent in this race, we think Kershaw will do similarly well in the parishes west of the “curtain”, particularly the rural ones (Below is a graphical depiction of the regions of the state).

Regions of Louisiana

(2) Core Democratic vote – Though most of the psychic energy in this race comes from the Republican candidates, the reality is that there is still a significant bloc of votes available to any Democrat on either side of the Atchafalaya. This cohesive populist/Democratic vote consists of blacks and “yellow dog” Democrats and represents at least 30% of the vote in any given election. Though Jay Dardenne has shown the ability to attract some of this vote in his elections (for instance, he got 20 and 33% of the black vote, respectively, in his own East Baton Rouge Parish in both of his Secretary of State races), the last minute entry of three Democrats into the race means that a lot of this voter bloc will gravitate towards the Democratic candidates, and of those candidates, we believe that state senator “Butch” Gautreaux of Morgan City currently has the best chance of receiving this vote.

(3) The effect of local races on Democratic turnout – Overall, white turnout in the 2006 Secretary of State’s race was 28%, while black turnout was 20%. However, black turnout was boosted in Shreveport, Alexandria, and in parishes along the Mississippi River Delta due to hotly contested mayoral and legislative races there. Shreveport and Alexandria will again have hotly contested mayor’s races, and there will be a contested Democratic Congressional primary in New Orleans. We therefore have to assume that there will be some benefit accruing to the Democrats in these areas.

Given these considerations, what we see right now in the Lt. Governor’s race is a three way race. Jay Dardenne leads with 30%, followed by Sammy Kershaw with 27%, “Butch” Gautreaux with 26%, and the other candidates’ getting 17% (Roger Villere gets 11 of the remaining 17%). Keep in mind that a lot (i.e., candidate withdrawals, quality of commercials run, blunders, and so forth) can and will affect the ultimate outcome. However, we see this analysis as a snapshot of things given what we know of the candidate’s electoral strengths and weaknesses, with the following additional observations/caveats (our predictions by parish are here):

(1) As the “major” Democrat in the race, “Butch” Gautreaux will pretty much own the 30% populist vote base, especially when you get west of the Atchafalaya. We also believe that his performance in Caddo and Rapides Parishes will be aided by a strong black turnout due to contested mayor’s races in Shreveport and Alexandria;

(2) In his 2007 race for Lt. Governor, Sammy Kershaw was strong in the rural parishes, especially those west of the Atchafalaya. We think he can sustain strong voter support in these rural parishes again, which basically hurts the Villere campaign and, to a lesser extent, Jay Dardenne;

(3) Roger Villere is electorally boxed in as long as Kevin Davis and Sammy Kershaw remain in the race;

(4) Jay Dardenne’s base of the Baton Rouge and New Orleans media markets will mostly remain intact. He will, however, lose some of his support in the rural parishes to Sammy Kershaw.

(5) The wildcard in the race is the last minute entry of Caroline Fayard. Between her New Orleans base and her family connections to the Fayards (well known trial lawyers) in Livingston Parish, she has the potential to make this a race on the Democratic side. If this were to occur, any vote she receives will generally come at the expense of “Butch” Gautreaux, although she may hurt Jay Dardenne with more moderate voters in parishes east of the “Cypress Curtain” as well. Depending on how much she cuts into the Democratic vote, we can see a scenario where two of the Republicans, Sammy Kershaw and Jay Dardenne, would make the runoff, in which case Dardenne would win with about 55-60% of the vote.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Candidate filing has closed in Louisiana for the 2010 elections.  There were a significant number of last minute qualifiers, so we are providing a summary, as well as a list of qualifiers:

(click here to view the list of qualifying candidates)

U.S. Senate/U.S. House -  Party Primary August 28, Party Runoff (if necessary) October 2, General Election November 2

Only Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) escaped any opposition. The Senate race features 17 candidates, with contested Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries;

(7/13 update – “Joseph” Cao’s sole primary opponent, Norman Billiot, has withdrawn, leaving Rep. Cao unopposed in the August 28 primary)

Statewide October 2 Primaries, with Runoff (if necessary) Election November 2

PSC Member Clyde Holloway (R-Forest Hill) was re-elected without opposition to a full term. PSC Member Lambert Boissiere (D-New Orleans) received opposition from John Schwegmann;

There are 9 candidates running for Lieutenant Governor;

State Senate District 2- New Orleans Democrats Mike Darnell, Gilbert J. Etienne, Ira Thomas, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis are running for this seat;.

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. Filing for this office will not be until August, although conservative Alan Seabaugh (who ran for the state Senate in 2007 against Sherri Cheek and nearly won) has expressed interest.

Today is the last day for candidate qualifying in Louisiana for the fall elections (qualifying concludes at 5PM). Below is the current status of major state and national offices:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

Unopposed for primary and general: District 1 – Steve Scalise (R-Metairie), District 6 – Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge), District 7 – Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette)

Unopposed for primary only: (1) District 2 – “Joseph” Cao (R-New Orleans), (2) District 3 Democratic nominee- Ravi Sangisetty (D-Houma), (3) District 4 Republican nominee – John Fleming (R-Minden)

Races with primaries: (1) U.S. Senate Democratic Primary - Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville and Cary Deaton of Metairie; (2) U.S. Senate Republican Primary – David Vitter of Metairie and Nick Accardo of Franklin; (3) District 2 Democratic Primary - state Rep Juan La Fonta, state Rep Cedric Richmond, and Gary Johnson; (4) District 3 Republican Primary - Jeff Landry and Hunt Downer; (5) District 4 Democratic Primary - Steven Gavi and David Melville; (6) District 5 Republican Primary - Rodney Alexander and Todd Slavant (Note: what is interesting about David Vitter’s primary opponent is that he ran for office against J. Bennett Johnston, John Breaux, Billy Tauzin, and Mary Landrieu as a Democrat then as an Indpendent between 1990 and 1996) ;

3rd Party Candidacies, who will appear on the November ballot without a primary: (1) U.S. Senate – “Tony G” Gentile of Mandeville, Michael Brown of Shreveport, Bob Lang of Natchitoches, Sam Melton of Winnfield, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Milton Gordon of Alexandria; (2) District 2 – Anthony Marquize; (3) District 4 – Artis Cash; (4) District 5 – “Tom” Gibbs

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – (All five so far are Republicans) Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight, and country singer Sammy Kershaw (who ran for the office in 2007 against Mitch Landrieu);

Supreme Court, District 7 (Orleans, Westbank) - Bernette Johnson was unopposed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 (New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge) and 4 (Central and Southwest Louisiana) - District 3 – Lambert Boissiere (D-New Orleans) was unopposed, District 4 – Clyde Holloway (R-Forest Hill) was unopposed

State Senate District 2- New Orleans Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis;.

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. Filing for this office will not be until August, although conservative Alan Seabaugh (who ran for the state Senate in 2007 against Sherri Cheek and nearly won) has expressed interest.

We are now half way through candidate qualifying, and for the major races, nearly all of the incumbents/major players have qualified. After an initial rush of qualifiers yesterday morning, qualifying yesterday afternoon and this morning has proceeded as a slower pace, with the biggest entry being Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty, who is competing for the Congressional seat Charlie Melancon vacated to run for the Senate. Below is the current status:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – There are seven candidates in this race: Incumbent Republican David Vitter, Democrats Charlie Melancon and Cary Deaton, Libertarian Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008), and three Independents: Michael Brown of Shreveport, Mike Spears of Lafayette, and Bob Lang if Natchitoches. Given Louisiana’s current (but recently repealed) congressional primary law, Melancon must win the Democratic primary on 8/28, while David Vitter and the three independents get a “free ride” electorally until the November election;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be contested Democratic primaries both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There are currently two contested Republican primaries: one for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry, while up in northeast Louisiana, 6 year incumbent Rodney Alexander has picked up a primary opponent:  Todd Slavant from Monroe, who has allied himself with the Tea Party movement. Furthermore, the November ballot will have three Independents: Anthony Marquize (who is running against “Joseph” Cao in New Orleans), Artis Cash (who is running against John Fleming in northwest Louisiana), and Tom Gibbs (who is running against Rodney Alexander in northeast Louisiana);

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – So far, the Lt. Governor’s race remains an all Republican race between Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign), and Baton Rouge Republican Melanie McKnight (she filed this morning);

Supreme Court, District 7 - This is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. So far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to inner city Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, only Boissiere and Holloway have filed for their seats;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far, although conservative Alan Seabaugh has mentioned his interest in the race in various Internet postings;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell, Edward Washington, and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

The first day of qualifying time is half over, and for the major races, nearly all of the incumbents/major players have qualified. Below is the current status:

 August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – David Vitter, Charlie Melancon, and a Libertarian named Anthony “Tony G” Gentile (who ran for Governor in 2007 and for Steve Scalise’s Congressional seat in 2008) have filed. At this time, there will be a Democratic primary for the Senate race, as Cary Deaton of Metairie will be challenging Charlie Melancon in the primary;

All 7 Congressional seats – All Republican Congressional incumbents have filed for re-election. There will be a contested Democratic primary both in New Orleans between state representatives Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta and in Shreveport/Northwest Louisiana between Steve Gavi and David Melville. There will also be a contested Republican primary for Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat between Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry;

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – Thus far, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, GOP Chairman Roger Villere, and St Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis (who rankled some by crossing party lines to endorse Mary Landrieu in her 2008 re-election campaign) have filed so far;

Supreme Court, District 7 - this is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish, and so far, only Johnson has filed;

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to (inner city) Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office. Thus far, no one has filed for either seat;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades. No one has filed for this seat so far;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting. Thus far, Democrats Mike Darnell and Cynthia Willard-Lewis have filed for this office.

We will keep an eye on who has qualified throughout the qualifying period, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

For tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, candidates will be qualifying for national, statewide, and local races in Louisiana. What may be confusing is that while we will return to open primaries for Congressional races, we are still using party primaries for this year’s Congressional elections only. Meaning that Democrats/Independents may vote in the August 28 Democratic party primary, but only Republicans may vote for Republican candidates in the August 28 party primary. If no party candidate gets 50% of the vote, an October 2 runoff will occur. For statewide/local races, of course, the open primary system is still in place. Below are the major races we will be voting on this year:

August 28 party primary/October 2 party runoff if necessary/November 2 general election:

U.S Senate Race – While the Vitter/Melancon race has been going on for some time now, both candidates still have to get past their parties’ primaries. Senator Vitter will likely have minor primary opposition, while currently, Rep. Melancon is unopposed in the Democratic primary;

All 7 Congressional seats – We are not expecting much action in terms of the August 28 party primary, although the GOP primary for Charlie Melancon’s seat between New Iberia and Chalmette (including Gonzales) will be a hotly contested race. Additionally, at least two Democratic legislators want to recapture a Congressional seat in New Orleans from freshman Republican Joseph Cao;

October 2 primary/November 2 runoff if necessary:

Lieutenant Governor – this office was vacated when Mitch Landrieu was elected Mayor of New Orleans earlier this year. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is running for this office, but will face stiff opposition from GOP chairman Roger Villere in a race that already has similarities to the 2006 Jay Dardenne/Mike Francis contest that took place when Jay first sought the job of Secretary of State in 2006. In addition to the intraparty feud, there is a question as to whether the Democrats will actively contest this race;

Supreme Court, District 7 - this is the seat of Bernette Johnson in New Orleans that includes most of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish.

Public Service Commission Districts 3 and 4 - District 3 is a New Orleans to (inner city) Baton Rouge district held by first termer Lambert Boissiere, while District 4 is a Central and Southwest Louisiana based district that elected Clyde Holloway last year in a special election and, for the first time, gave Republicans a numerical majority on that board. Commissioner Holloway is now seeking a full term to that office;

State Representative District 5 – Term limited incumbent Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will resign effective August 1 to take a museum director’s job. His seat in the southern suburbs of Shreveport should remain in Republican hands, as it has for decades;

State Senate District 2- Ann Duplessis (D-New Orleans) vacated her seat to take a job in the Mitch Landrieu administration in New Orleans. Her district in New Orleans East will remain in Democratic hands, although there is a question as to whether this district will be eliminated after next years’ redistricting;

Local races (School Board, Mayor of Alexandria/Shreveport, Police Chief, and similar local offices)

We will keep an eye on who has qualified, although for those who wish to research this on their own, the Secretary of State keeps this information continuously updated on their site: http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/tabid/165/Default.aspx

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Recent polls released in Louisiana and in Florida not only confirm Louisiana’s current conservative mood, but also show that the poll lead that Florida’s party switching Governor currently has is built on a very weak foundation that will erode as Election Day gets closer.

Southern Media and Opinion Research Survey, April 19-23 (600 registered Louisiana voters)

Southern Media recently released a survey which paints a bright red portrait of current voter attitudes in Louisiana. The most important part of the survey is the strong unpopularity of President Obama and his healthcare plan. President Obama registers strong disapproval from poll respondents (39% approval/58% disapproval), which is consistent with the 59%-40% vote for John McCain in the 2008 Presidential election. Healthcare reform is even more unpopular, with 32% support and 63% opposition.

Governor Jindal still has good approval ratings (61% approve/37% disapprove), although these numbers have declined from the 68-30% approval/disapproval he had a year ago. We see several factors at play here: (1) Some of the effects of the “Great Recession” are being felt here in Louisiana, as declining tax revenues have led to a series of budget cuts, and these cuts undoubtedly affect Governor Jindal’s popularity; (2) the brunt of these budget cuts affects the Baton Rouge area, and it’s no accident that this part of the state gives Governor Jindal his weakest numbers statewide (his approval/disapproval numbers in the Baton Rouge area are 53-45%); (3) because partisan lines have hardened, the 60/40 conservative/liberal split apparent from the 2008 Presidential race and the Obama approval numbers is also showing up in Governor Jindal’s approval ratings.

This polarization also plays a part in the differing approval ratings of our two U.S Senators. Senator David Vitter has a 54-36% approval/disapproval and currently leads Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon 49-31% in the poll. While this is a downtick from a series of Rasmussen polls between January and April showing Senator Vitter with an average 55-35% lead, it’s also worth noting that both candidates have been affected by this downtick in support. Fortunately, Senator Vitter’s approval ratings have remained above 50%, which could not be similarly said for Senator Mary Landrieu. Her approval ratings in the wake of healthcare reform/the “Louisiana Purchase” have tumbled to 43-54% approve/disapprove. The underlying detail reveals further bad news for the senior senator: (1) even in her native New Orleans, which she carried 58-40% over John Kennedy in 2008, her approval ratings are a paltry 50-46%; (2) her approval ratings are 38% outside the New Orleans and Baton Rouge media markets – this is a region of the state John Kennedy only narrowly carried 49.1%-48.6% over Mary Landrieu in 2008; and (3) Her approval ratings with white males are a jaw dropping 21-75% approve/disapprove.

Finally, for those legislators seeking re-election or promotion to a higher office next year, it’s worth noting that 80% of poll respondents indicated that they’re less likely to vote for a legislator who supported the botched pay raise in 2008.

Mason Dixon Poll, May 3-5 (625 likely Florida voters)

The Florida Senate race seemed to take a turn towards the unpredictable when Governor Charlie Crist changed parties so he could run as an Independent in the November election instead of facing certain defeat at the hands of Republican primary voters in August. In the media afterglow of his party switch, a poll came out showing him leading with 38% of the vote, compared to 32% for his likely Republican opponent, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, while Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek received a paltry 19% (11% are undecided).

However, a closer examination of the details beneath these summary numbers confirms our belief that he has peaked politically, because of our earlier statement that “until (April 29), Governor Crist’s political advancement has been solely within the context of the Republican party.” For one thing, the survey noted that Crist is receiving 19% of the black vote and 48% of Democrats. As the campaign progresses, partisan battle lines will harden and those Democrats (especially black voters) will return to the Democratic nominee. And as Democrats defect, Governor Crist will find that unified Republican support of Marco Rubio will prevent him from making any headway with that portion of the electorate; in fact, the poll noted that not only did Rubio lead 70-18% with Republicans, but only about 20% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the Governor. What about Independents ? While it is true that Governor Crist currently leads 55-19% with that demographic, it’s important to note several things: (1) Independents make up 22% of the electorate, so they can’t alone carry Governor Crist to victory while he simultaneously hemorrhages Democratic and Republican voters; (2) liberal minded Independents will likely demonstrate their approval of Obama Administration policies by supporting the Democratic nominee in November, while conservative minded Independents will similarly move towards the GOP nominee by Election Day; (3) a significant number of Independents on either side of the ideological spectrum can be swayed by the “don’t throw away your vote” argument that will be employed by both parties. In fact, a similar argument was used in last year’s Governors race in New Jersey, when an Independent candidate several weeks before the election saw his 19% standing in the polls evaporate to 6% by Election Day.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

A major shakeup in V-Vehicle’s top management, in the wake of that company’s failure to secure a $320 million Department of Energy capital loan, has the smart money indicating the firm is close to melting away.

The Monroe News-Star reported late Friday that V-Vehicle CEO Frank Varasano and Vice President for Assembly Horst Metz have departed the firm, as Varasano was terminated by the company’s board and Metz subsequently quit. VVC also canceled its lease for the former Guide Corp. plant outside of Monroe, where it was expected to produce its four-door hatchback cars with a 40 MPG fuel rating and a $10,000 retail price. Ruston investor James Davison, who owns the Guide plant, told the paper he thinks it’s a “long shot” that VVC will ever make a car at the facility.

Raymond Lane, a managing partner at Kleiner Perkins, V-Vehicle’s venture capital firm, is taking over the company on an interim basis, and a search will commence for a permanent CEO. VVC also says they still intend to make cars in Monroe, and will renegotiate a new lease at the Guide plant when their re-application for a Department of Energy loan is accepted.

Or when the Hornets win the NBA Championship.

This isn’t necessarily the end for V-Vehicle, but it’s certainly a sign that anyone expecting the project to bear fruit is kidding themselves.

Meanwhile, V-Vehicle sent the state of Louisiana a reimbursement check for some incentive cash the Department of Economic Development had floated it – but the check was some $14,000 short.

Kiss that money goodbye.

Louisiana Economic Development secretary Stephen Moret says that the $67 million the state had allocated out of its megafund incentive program is “still committed,” but amid a billion-dollar budget shortfall this year the odds of that money holding up are pretty long.

The larger lesson here seems to be that startup companies, particularly out-of-state startup companies, shaking down politicians for taxpayer dollars aren’t worth the time, money and effort to lure. Those startups which can’t raise private-sector money in suitable volume for viability are long shots. Louisiana can’t afford long shots.

Here endeth the lesson.