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Since there has been a decent amount of polling done (as of today, polls have been released for all but the Hawaii Senate race) , we therefore have a better feel for how the race for the Senate is progressing.

Continue reading at http://winwithjmc.com/archives/1657

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Conservatives are presently enjoying a growing sense of impending victory in the mid-term elections.  We’re told that a transformed, conservative Republican group will almost certainly enjoy a majority in the House of Representatives, and quite possibly in the Senate as well.  This news is accompanied and encouraged by increasingly favorable poll results.  While all of this is good news, it creates a risk that the conservative movement will come to suffer from a complacent sense of having already won the battle, and as a result, will not show up at the polls in November.

What can you do to help assure that doesn’t happen?

We are all aware of the “sudden” outburst of conservative activism since the campaign of Barack Obama, and especially since Obamacare was shoved into a variety of anatomical orifices by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.  As Katy Abram, an unknown (then) wife and mother warned Arlen Specter, liberal politics has “awakened a sleeping giant.”  It would be a tragedy for that giant to return to its former state of hibernation and let this opportunity pass.

Only you can choose not to let that happen.  First and foremost, you must choose not to become complacent.  Following that –

Search out a few good, conservative political blogs.  While we at TheHayride would like to be one of your regular reads, it is not the intent of this post to promote the site (you’ve already found us or you wouldn’t be reading this).  Check out some of our friends on our Blog Roll, as well as Big Government and National Review Online, the latter two of which will expose you to the thoughts of prominent national conservative analysts in a hurry.

When you find a site the content of which stirs you to action, promote it to your friends.  When you read a post that teaches you something new or moves you in other ways, email its links to your friends who share your political views, and especially to those who don’t, or those who are indifferent.

Use Facebook and Twitter to share your ideas and again, to follow conservative politicians or analysts.  Post links to articles you like on Facebook and tweet them on Twitter.

Talk it up!  In conversation with friends and colleagues, steer the conversation toward the agenda of the current administration and Congress, and point out the reasons you disagree.  Spread information, and fight misinformation.  If you are not familiar with the issues, such as Cap and Trade, invest the time to do a little research to understand those issues.

Get involved with a conservative action group such as your local Tea Party.  Volunteer to support a candidate by working phone banks from your home.

Put your money where your mouth is.  While we recognize that these are difficult economic times for many people, how much more difficult will they become if we don’t change the face of Washington?  Perhaps you can only afford to donate $10, but if you help find and encourage 999,999 more people to do the same thing, you’ll be part of $10million going to the cause you support.

Put a sign in your yard.

Put a bumper sticker on your car.

Whatever you do, don’t let the growing wave of encouraging news allow you to become complacent.  Rather, help it grow into the conservative tsunami we all look forward to as polls close on November 2.

(1) For the first time in years, the Republican base (with TEA Partiers providing the psychic energy) is fired up and is holding its incumbents more accountable for their voting records, particularly if they differ from the limited government philosophy once espoused by Ronald Reagan;

(2) This increased scrutiny of Republicans takes several forms. The most obvious form is the primary defeats of four Republican incumbents (Sen Robert Bennett in Utah, Sen Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, Rep Parker Griffith in Alabama, and Rep Bob Inglis in South Carolina). This scrutiny also takes the form of support of more conservative candidates (Rand Paul in Kentucky, Marco Rubio in Florida, Ken Buck in Colorado, and Sharron Angle in Nevada) over the “safer” choices favored by the local and Washington party establishments. Finally, current/former incumbents seeking promotion to another office (Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, Charlie Crist in Florida, Ron Simmons in Connecticut, Pete Hoekstra in Michigan, and Gresham Barrett in South Carolina) have found that their “old” voting record matters to primary voters, especially if they supported TARP. Finally, an energized party base has created competitive races for incumbents like Lynn Jenkins in Kansas, Fred Upton in Michigan, and Mark Souder in Indiana if they were perceived as having “gone Washington”;

(3) Republican primary voters were much more critical of their incumbents, but there were casualties on the Democratic side as well, as Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia found out the hard way, despite their decades of seniority;

(4) A natural by-product of these contested Republican primaries is a spike in Republican primary voting. In the 28 states that have held competitive statewide primaries on both sides of the aisle so far, 55% (or 13.8 million) have voted in a Republican primary, while 11.4 million have voted in the Democratic primary. A similar dynamic was in play in 2008, when Democratic enthusiasm in contested primaries foretold the Democratic sweep that November;

(5) So far, attempts by labor and progressive activists to defeat Democratic incumbents perceived to be too conservative (a “no” vote on healthcare reform was generally the “red flag” item) have uniformly failed, and, curiously, have not gotten much support from the Democratic establishment;

(6) Rhetoric suggesting that “angry white males” are driving Republican efforts does not reflect reality. Hispanic and Asian candidates have been nominated for a multitude of offices in places like Washington, New Mexico, and South Carolina. And this year, a record 36 black Republicans have sought election to Congress. Of this group, 13 have been nominated so far, and we believe that three candidates (Tim Scott of South Carolina, Ryan Frazier of Colorado, and Allen West of Florida) have a good chance of getting elected. We are also keeping an eye on Bill Marcy in Mississippi, who is running in the Delta with Tea Party support;

(7) Even if all incumbents were somehow re-elected, the next Congress will have at least 59 new members from primary defeats and retirements alone. This volume of primary defeats/retirements has only been exceeded three times in recent memory: 61 in 1994, 66 in 1996, and 85 in 1992. If, however, a strong Republican wave materializes as expected, there will be numerous Democratic retirements in advance of the 2012 elections, in addition to those incumbents defeated in November. In fact, in the wake of the 1994 GOP landslide, 37 Democratic incumbents called it quits;

Looking forward, there are eight more primaries which will be held next week. Seven of those (Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin) will be held on “Super Tuesday II” on September 14. Hawaii’s primary will be held on Saturday, September 18. We are watching the following races:

Delaware – There were several states where the Republican establishment recruited candidates to run for open Senate seats with the belief that their moderate demeanor/views on the issues made them more electable. This argument has not carried any weight with conservative/TEA Party activists who have flocked to the polls this year to support more conservative candidates. In Delaware, 18 year House incumbent (and former Governor) Mike Castle has a moderate voting record (he supported “cap and trade”) to defend against marketing consultant Christine O’Donnell, who has recently engaged the interest of the TEA Party Express who, in the wake of the shocking upset of incumbent Lisa Murkowski, wants the scalp of another RINO (Republican In Name Only). Polls currently show Castle with a narrowing lead against the likely Democratic nominee, while O’Donnell currently trails the Democrat;

Massachusetts – We had noted above that in several House races, labor/progressive groups sought revenge against incumbents who voted against healthcare reform. A final “test case” of their desire for vengeance is in a House district in Boston and its southern suburbs, where nine year incumbent Steve Lynch  faces a challenge from  Mac D’Alessandro, New England Political Director of SEIU. There is also a contested GOP House primary in an open House seat race where Scott Brown and Mitt Romney have both thrown their weight behind state representative Jeff Perry, who utilizes a “three part system of voting” for any legislation.

New Hampshire – This is another race where the preferred candidate of the GOP Senate Campaign Committee faces a competitive primary. However, the “establishment versus insurgent” narrative isn’t entirely accurate here, as the “establishment” candidate, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, has Sarah Palin’s endorsement. She is competing against three other major opponents, one of whom (Ovide Lamontagne) claims the endorsement of the state’s main (and conservative) newspaper.

New York – Charlie Rangel’s ethical problems couldn’t come at a worse time for him, as the 40 year incumbent fights for his political life against the son of the person (Adam Clayton Powell) Rangel defeated in 1970.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Watch it and then ask yourself whether this level of “transparency” is acceptable to you…

Scorecard

Elections Calendar

Latest News – Filing Deadlines

There will be no filing deadlines until May 25, when filing ends in Connecticut. After that will see a rapid succession of filing deadlines: Arizona (May 26), Colorado (May 27), Wyoming (May 28), and Alaska/Massachusetts (June 1). Once those deadlines have passed, we will know who is running for Congress in 38 states. The last Congressional filing deadline will be Delaware’s, on July 30.

Latest News – Retirements

In the wake of the May 6 David Obey (D-Wisconsin) retirement, there was the abrupt resignation of Mark Souder (R-Indiana) Tuesday because he had an affair with an aide. This brings the total number of Congressional retirements to 56 (43 in the House and 13 in the Senate). We also have recently found out that 2006 freshman Michael Arcuri (D-New York) has decided to run for re-election after all.

A final word on the Pennsylvania special election

Despite the fact that incumbent/establishment candidates had a bad night during Tuesday’s primaries, many pundits have chosen to focus solely on the Democratic victory in the special election in Pennsylvania to fill the seat of the late John Murtha. In doing so, they are neglecting several important facts that paint a more complex picture:

(1)   Though this was a district that, as the pundits told us, McCain won, his victory in 2008 was 49-49%. Four years before that, John Kerry won with 51%. And in the 2000 Bush/Gore election, Gore won 55-44%. Going further back in time, an even more conservative incarnation of this district only gave Ronald Reagan a bare 50-50% victory while he was re-elected in a 59-41% landslide in 1984. In other words, what we have is a district with a New Deal Democratic/union heritage that is sympathetic towards pork barrel oriented congressmen;

(2)   The special election held was not the only item on the ballot. In fact, turnout was influenced by the high wattage gubernatorial and Senate primaries on the Democratic side, which meant that advertising for Democratic candidates saturated the airwaves and undoubtedly brought more Democrats to the polls;

(3)   One analysis which should have been performed but wasn’t was an examination of who went to the polls in the counties making up the Congressional district. District wide, Mark Critz’s victory was 53-45%, while 60% of the primary vote was cast in the Democratic primary. In other words, Democrats had a huge head start here;

(4)   Three of the smaller counties did see more Republican than Democratic primary activity, but it only represented 56% of the votes cast, and even then, Tim Burns only carried these counties 53-45%. In other words, he actually LOST some Republican votes to the Democratic candidate;

(5)   In the larger counties which represented the lions share of the district wide vote, 64% of the voters in those counties chose a Democratic ballot, and Critz won these counties 54-44%. In other words, you had a 10% crossover of voters who chose a Democratic ballot then voted Republican for Congress. However, the Democrats had more votes to spare than the Republicans did;

(6)   It also didn’t hurt that Critz had local roots in the community as a regional director for the late Congressman John Murtha for 12 years, and he cemented those ties by establishing his conservative credentials even while accepting organizational and financial help from the national Democrats;

(7)   The circumstances mentioned above were all favorable to the Democrat in this race. This combination of circumstances will not be present in the fall balloting. Plus, the races this fall will involve Democratic incumbents with a record that has to be defended against skeptical voters. Finally, it’s worth noticing that Critz only ran 4% ahead of Barack Obama in Tuesday’s election.

Looking Ahead

This Saturday at 6PM (Hawaii time), we will know the winner of the “winner take all” Hawaii special Congressional election. Turnout as of Tuesday was 43%, and we believe by Saturday it will be in the 50-55% range. Republican Charles Djou has maintained a strong lead in this “winner take all” election; the question is how close to 50% he can get when the balloting is completed.

After the Saturday special election, the only other election in May will be the Idaho primary next Tuesday. After that, three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico) hold primary elections on June 1. We are particularly interested in a House race in Northern Alabama, where last year, conservative Democrat Parker Griffith changed from Democrat to Republican. Though the party establishment has done what it can to help Griffith out, local Republicans haven’t been entirely happy with this arrangement, and two Republicans are opposing him in the primary. This scenario (political classes versus the masses) sounds eerily similar to Pennsylvania, except that the party switch was a more natural fit for Griffith than it was for Arlen Specter (who actually switched parties twice in his political career).

After June 1 will be another “Super Tuesday” on June 8, with 10 states’ holding primaries. In addition, the political future of Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) will be decided in a runoff on that same date. This runoff will determine whether she becomes the third  incumbent Senator (and the fourth Congressional incumbent) to be defeated.

At that point, 25 states will have held their primaries, and the general election campaigns will really start to take shape then.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Several hours later, 16 year incumbent Mark Souder (R-Indiana) abruptly resigned after admitting he had an affair with a female staffer. We had mentioned before that in the face of tough primary competition (he survived the GOP primary with less than 50% of the vote), he had decided that this would be his last term. The GOP will now have to select a replacement nominee.

Later in the day, primaries proved to be unfriendly to establishment/incumbent candidates, as a third incumbent was defeated tonight, and a fourth incumbent is forced into a runoff amidst a weak primary showing. Below is a recap of the results:

Kentucky

Last year, the Republicans dreaded the prospect of defending the seat of 77 year old incumbent Jim Bunning; in the face of George Bush’s 60-40% victory in Kentucky in 2004, Bunning was re-elected with an anemic 51% of the vote after noting that his Democratic opponent “looked like one of Saddam Hussein’s sons.” Pressure was soon put not only on Senator Bunning, but on potential contributors, and Senator Bunning decided against running for re-election. Thanks to Senator McConnell, Bunning’s colleague and Senate Minority Leader, the GOP establishment had a candidate waiting in the wings: Secretary of State Trey Grayson. There was only one problem: Ron Paul’s son, Dr Rand Paul, wanted to run as well. And as voter discontent against the Democatic Congress steadily increased, Rand Paul slowly but surely started to assemble a coalition of Tea Party activists, Christian conservatives, libertarians who supported Ron Paul’s Presidential campaign, and Sarah Palin. This grassroots juggernaut eventually enabled Dr Paul not only to build a lead in the polls, but he ended up winning by a landslide 59-35% margin, carrying all but about a dozen of Kentucky’s 120 counties. He faces Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who eked out a 44-43% win in the Democratic primary.

Pennsylvania

When Arlen Specter switched parties last year due to his frank admission that “My change in party will allow me to be re-elected”, the Democratic establishment in Washington and Pennsylvania went out of their way to support his 2010 re-election bid. There was only one problem: two term Congressman Joe Sestak was unwilling to step aside. Plus, many rank and file Democrats never warmed up to the Democratic party’s newest member. However, Sestak trailed in the polls until he ran TV footage showing Senator Specter with George W. Bush and Sarah Palin. He also brought up Republican votes Senator Specter had cast over the past 30 years. And Senator Specter further compounded his credibility gap by his twice referring to a local Democratic group as the “Allegheny County Republicans.” Though Senator Specter tried to use his seniority and the “electabilityargument” to bolster his chances. those appeals fell flat in an anti incumbent year, and in the end, even President Obama declined to make an 11th hour appearance on Specter’s behalf. Rep Sestak went on to defeat Senator Specter 54-46% and now faces former Congressman Pat Toomey in the general election. Interestingly, Toomey held Specter to a 51-49% victory in the Republican primary, and that was in the face of unified local, state, and national GOP party support for Specter in that race.

Democratic incumbents were a little more fortunate in two compettive districts, as Tim Holden (who angered liberal activists in his 51% McCain district with his votes against healthcare reform and cap and trade) defeated a libeal opponent with 65% of the vote. 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who was one of a few Democrats in 2008 who actually ran behind Barack Obama in his district, survived his primary against an underfunded opponent with 49% of the vote. He will face the same Republican he narrowly defeated in 2008 with 52% of the vote.

Meanwhile, Republican hopes to pick up an open seat in a blue collar area were dashed when former Murtha Congressional aide Mark Critz ran as a conservative pro life, pro gun, anti healthcare reform Democrat. He defeated his Republican opponent by a 53-45% margin in a historically Democratic district that has been steadily moving towards the Republicans in recent years.

Arkansas

The national anti-establishment mood also affected the Democratic primary in Arkansas, where labor and progressive groups coalesced behind Lt Governor Bill Halter. There was also a third candidate in the race, conservative Democrat D.C. Morrison. Despite 18  years of Congressional seniority (6 years in the House and 12 years in the Senate), Senator Lincoln only barely won her primary 45-43% over Lt Governor Halter, which means that her poltiical fate may be decided in the June 8 Democratic runoff. Republicans had a crowded 5 way primary, but Congressman John Boozman has won with 53% of the vote and thus will be the Republican nominee without the need for a runoff.

Conclusion

Tonight’s returns clearly showed an anti incumbent bias, but Democrats who distance themselves from the national party like Mark Critz did in Pennsylvania can survive. And, ironically, with 39 more states yet to hold primaries (plus the Arkansas/North Carolina runoffs), the Democrats’ best hope for survival may be to support as many anti-establishment newcomers as possible and/or give them freedom to declare their independence from Nancy Pelosi and/or Harry Reid.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Arkansas Senate (Democratic Primary) – Two term Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is in a tough fight against Lt Governor Bill Halter. Her poll ratings have remained remarkably steady in the 44-46% range since March, while Halter’s labor and progressive group funding has made him electorally viable, and his poll numbers have gradually climbed into the upper 30s. A third candidate, businessman D.C. Morrison, is running as a conservative and will likely force a June 8 runoff.

Kentucky Senate (Republican Primary) – This has become one of several “David vs Goliath” races we are watching. Early GOP establishment favorite Secretary of State Trey Grayson has seen his electoral prospects fade against the insurgent campaign of Dr. Rand Paul, despite the assistance of fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Paul has more than matched this “Goliath” endorsement with endorsements from Kentucky’s other (retiring) Republican Senator Jim Bunning, Sarah Palin, James Dobson, and various Tea Party chapters. Recent polls show an average Paul lead of  48-34%, and Grayson has in the 11^th hour come out with a withering attack against Dr. Paul, referring to him as a “grand-standing leader who will struggle in the general election because his views are out of the mainstream with Kentucky voters….”

Pennsylvania Senate (Democratic Primary) –  This primary battle pits 30 year incumbent (and former Republican and former Democrat before that) Arlen Specter against Congressman Joe Sestak and has remained a nail biter ever since Rep. Sestak played the “Republican card” in ads two weeks ago. Both candidates have remained at 45% of the vote in tracking polls, which for an incumbent is not a good sign. In fact, the White House today has declined to make a final appearance on Specter’s behalf, because as one Obama aide said “…..It’s hard to see how he (Specter) pulls this thing out….Public and private tracking [polls] are all running away from him.”  

Pennsylvania Special House Election – The special election to replace the late John Murtha (D-Pennsylvania) for the remainder of his term has been neck and neck for some time. However, a last minute poll conducted May 15-16 of 831 likely voters from Public Policy Polling reveals some interesting information. Overall, Republican Tim Burns leads 48-47% (compared to a 44-41% Burns lead from the same poll conducted a month ago). The poll’s internals, however, tell an interesting story:

• Obama 35% approval (55% disapproval);
• Healthcare reform 30% approval (58% disapproval);
• By a 44-43% margin, voters do NOT want to see the next Congressman carry on John Murtha’s legacy;
• 41% are very excited about voting;
• In a district that voted 49-49% for McCain, 51-49% for Democrat John Kerry, and 55-44% for Al Gore in 2000, 47% of McCain voters are “very excited”, while 38% of Obama voters are similarly motivated. And among the “very excited”, the Republican Burns leads 60-38%.

Pennsylvania Congressional Democratic Primaries – In the wake of 28 year Democrat incumbent Alan Mollohan’s 56-44% defeat last week, we are watching two Democratic Pennsylvania incumbents. The first is 18 year incumbent Tim Holden, who is in some trouble with liberal activists in this 51% McCain district for voting against healthcare reform and “cap and trade.” The second is 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who despite his nearly perfect Democratic voting record barely eked out a 52-48% victory against a Republican last year in a district that gave Barack Obama 57% of the vote.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Elections Calendar

Latest News – Filing Deadlines

There will be no filing deadlines until May 25, when filing ends in Connecticut. After that will see a rapid succession of filing deadlines: Arizona (May 26), Colorado (May 27), Wyoming (May 28), and Alaska/Massachusetts (June 1). Once those deadlines have passed, the Congressional field will be set in 37 states. The last Congressional filing deadline will be Delaware’s, on July 30.

Latest News – Retirements

In the wake of the May 6 David Obey (D-Wisconsin) retirement, there has been no action on the Congressional retirement front. We are still keeping an eye on the possible retirement of 2006 freshman Michael Arcuri (D-New York), but we may not know anything definitive until July 15, which is the filing deadline for New York.

Latest News – Upcoming Primaries

Primaries held on May 18 will be worth watching, because they involve intraparty fights that political blog POLITICO described as “..the fullest measure yet of the depths of anti incumbent hostility…” Four states will be holding primaries on that day: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. We are watching the following three intraparty fights:

Pennsylvania

When 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic party last year, it was due to disastrous poll results showing him significantly trailing the same Republican he defeated in 2004 with 51% of the vote. And in that race, his victory was clinched by endorsements from former President Bush and former Senate colleague Rick Santorum.

The problem with Specter’s switch, however, was his reputation as an opportunist, which was bought front and center to the voters when he admitted at the time of the switch that “My change in party will allow me to be re-elected.” So despite the nearly unified support of Washington and Pennsylvania Democrats, his past and present conduct has created a high level of discomfort among rank and file Pennsylvania Democrats that Congressman Joe Sestak has exploited. TV footage showing Senator Specter with George W. Bush and Sarah Palin was the beginning of the playing of the “Republican card.” Then there were the Republican votes Senator Specter has cast over the past 30 years. And his twice referring to a local Democratic group as the “Allegheny County Republicans.”

Senator Specter’s line of defense, in addition to establishment support, has been to reiterate the benefits of his seniority and to argue that he is more electable than his opponent. However, none of these three lines of defense are likely to gather much traction in an anti incumbent year like this one. Though Specter maintained single digit leads in the polls before Sestak “played the Republican card”, recent tracking polls have shown the race a dead heat, with Sestak actually leading in several polls.

Another race that may be worth watching in Pennsylvania: up in Northeast Pennsylvania coal country, 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski was narrowly re-elected in 2008 with 52% of the vote in a district that gave Barack Obama 57% of the vote. This year, he has primary opposition from a local county commissioner. In addition to a voting record that has been mostly in line with the wishes of the Democratic leadership, Rep Kanjorski voted for TARP, and has taken some heat with the local Catholic community for his votes for healthcare reform. In the wake of Congressman Mollohan’s defeat in West Virginia, Kanjorski can’t feel entirely safe, and it’s worth noting that he didn’t release the results of a poll he commissioned.

Arkansas

In Arkansas, 12 year Senate Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln’s problem, in the eyes of Democratic activists, is twofold. First, she opposed “card check” legislation sought by organized labor. She also opposed the “public option” as part of healthcare reform, and for these stances, she received opposition from Lt Governor Bill Halter. Though Senator Lincoln has consistently led in the polls, she has remained beneath 50%., and a third candidate in the race may pull enough votes away to put the race into a runoff.

Kentucky

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the initial Republican favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has the staunch support of fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. That support, however, has become a liability in an anti Washington year. His opponent is Rand Paul, an eye doctor who also happens to be the son of Presidential candidate Ron Paul. He also has the attention of conservative groups like the Club for Growth, various Tea Parties, and grassroots conservative groups. Dr Paul currently leads by double digits in the polls (a recent poill showed him up 49-33%); the question is how this political novice with his more libertarian views will fare against significant Democratic opposition this fall.

Latest News – Upcoming Special Elections

While the primaries being held next week will be a yardstick for the strength of anti Washington sentiment amongs primary voters of either party, two vacated Democratic held House seats will also be a barometer of current voter attitudes.

Pennsylvania

In Southwest Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns are locked into a tight battle in the only district in America to vote for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 then for Republican John McCain in 2008. While Mark Critz is denying his liberalism and reiterating his opposition to healthcare, he has brought in Vice President Joe Biden to campaign for him. He has also invoked the pork barreling ability of his former boss, the late Congressman John Murtha. Meanwhile, Republican Tim Burns is basing his campaign on opposition to the status quo in general and healthcare reform in particular. Though different polls tell a different story as to who’s ahead, a recent poll showed Burns with a 49-40% lead among those most interested in the election. And President Obama’s unpopularity in the district helps as well. Burns’ problem is that the special election is held on the day as contested statewide Democratic primaries. And the legacy of appropriations brought to the district by the late Rep Murtha is something that may or may not work in the Democrats favor this year in this district.

Hawaii

Over in Hawaii, a “winner take all” mail in election us now in progress and will culminate on May 22 between a Republican against two significant Democratic opponents. One of the Democrats is former Congressman Ed Case, a white male who once represented the other Congressional district and is supported by pillars of the establishment like the Washington Democratic political establishment, the Blue Dog Democrats, and both major newspapers in Honolulu. The other Democrat is Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who is an Asian-American legislator with staunch support of the Hawaii Democratic establishment and local unions. Early on, the Washington Democratic political establishment attempted to get one of the candidates to drop out but were unsuccessful, and have recently pulled out of the special election race because “local Democrats were unable to work out their differences.”

Some of those differences are personal: in 2006, then Rep. Case challenged an incumbent Democratic Senator who was 82 years old at the time. Case lost that race 55-45%, and in the process made an enemy of the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, who not only has 48 years’ seniority, but has significant influence with Hawaii voters and chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. Senator Inouye has not only supported Hanaabusa, but has gotten involved personally in the campaign and has held multiple fundraisers for her.

The Democratic infighting has clearly benefitted the lone Republican in the race, Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou, but Djou has attractive qualities of his own and has adequate Republican funding. Djou has over time seen his lead expand in the polls and a recent survey sponsored by Aloha Vote  shows Djou in the lead with 40%. More significantly, among the poll respondents who said they have already voted, Djou leads with 45%. As of today, the state elections spokesman has indicated that 35% of voters have turned in their ballots – the deadline is 6PM May 22.

Meanwhile, in upstate New York, the House seat vacated in early March by Democrat Eric Massa has finally had an election date set by its Democratic Governor. The special election, however, will be held in November, so voters going to the polls will be voting twice; once to fill the unexpired term, and once for the full two year term.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Elections Calendar

Latest News – Filing Deadlines

There will be no filing deadlines until May 11, when filing ends in Michigan. This means that currently the partisan composition has been set in 30 seats (26 GOP held seats and 4 Democratic held seats). We also know that because filing has closed in 30 states, we know who the Congressional candidates are in 302 out of 435 House races and 20 out of 36 Senate races. After Michigan’s filing deadline passes, four more states see their Congressional filing close in rapid succession: Connecticut (May 25), Arizona (May 26), Colorado (May 27), and Wyoming (May 28). So by the end of next month, we will know who the candidates are in 338 House races (out of 435) and 20 Senate races (out of 36).

Latest News – Retirements

There have been no announced retirements since Ginny Brown-Waite’s last minute retirement last week. We are still keeping an eye on Michael Arcuri (D-New York), but we may not know anything definitive until July 15, which is the filing deadline for New York.

Latest News – Primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio

Three states held primaries tonight: Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina. Over the next six weeks, there will be 20 additional primaries, 3 special Congressional elections, and 11 filing deadlines. What did tonight’s elections tell us? By and large, incumbents of either party were renominated with comfortable margins (including former Senator Dan Coats winning the GOP nomination for the seat he once held until 1998 in Indiana), with two incumbent Republican Congressmen from Indiana being the exception to the rule. One incumbent (Dan Burton) had been in electoral trouble before in the 2008 Republican primary. The other incumbent (Mark Souder) had a “Yes” vote on TARP on his record. In fact, from what we’ve seen tonight and in Texas on March 4, Republican incumbents can survive their primaries with little incident provided that they don’t have a “Yes” vote on TARP to defend. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison found this out the hard way in the GOP primary in Texas. And Robert Bennett (R-Utah), who also voted “Yes” on TARP, will find out this weekend if he will even he placed on the GOP primary ballot for his own seat.

Next week, Nebraska and West Virginia hold their primaries. We’re particularly interested in the Democratic primary in one of the West Virginia House districts, where a Democratic challenger to a 28 year incumbent has declared his intentions to vote against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. The real action, however, will be on May 18, when Arkansas, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania’s primaries involve more ideologically pure candidates of both parties’ (Republican in Kentucky; Democrat in Arkansas and Pennsylvania) running against more establishment oriented candidates.

Latest News – Upcoming Special Elections

Upcoming special elections will also be a good early test of Democratic/Republican voter intensity. The May 18 special election in rural/blue collar southwestern Pennsylvania to replace the late John Murtha (D-Pennsylvania) in a 49% McCain (but 51% John Kerry) district will be the first test. In last week’s analysis we noted that Republican Tim Burns had a 46-40% poll lead according to a poll commissioned by the liberal Daily Kos blog. Since then, a Democratic pollster released a poll showing the Democrat with a 43-41% lead And while the Democrats are relying on Joe Biden for “star power”, the Republicans will be bringing in Scott Brown (the upset GOP winner for Teddy Kennedy’s vacated Senate seat) for  two events prior to the election.

Over in Hawaii, a “winner take all” mail in election us now in progress and will culminate on May 22 between a Republican against two major Democratic opponents (technically, 14 candidates are running). One of the Democrats is a white male (and former Congressman) named Ed Case who is supported by both the Washington Democratic political establishment and the Honolulu newspaper. The other Democrat, Colleen Hanabusa, is an Asian-American legislator with staunch support of the Hawaii Democratic establishment and local unions. A recent poll taken by the Honolulu Advertiser shows the Republican Djou with a 36-38% lead over Democrat Ed Case (Hanabusa ran third with 22%). Recently, the Democrats have stepped up their efforts by getting Barack Obama to record a “robocall” urging people to vote for the Democrat – without specifying WHICH Democrat he wants them to support. At the same time, Washington Democrats are stepping up their efforts to get Senator Hanbusa to resign, because of their belief that Ed Case is “more electable.”

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

I’m running as a Republican. I’m very proud to be from the party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, others that really have stood up for the principles of our party, like Ronald Reagan.This is a great party. It has a great future. We have a great opportunity to win in November. It’s important that we put a candidate up that can win in November.

Today, it appears Florida Governor Charlie Crist will announce he’s decided that rather than bowing out gracefully or soldiering on to defeat in the GOP primary at former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio’s hands, he’ll continue running as an independent – turning a two-way race in which Rubio is all but assured to clobber Democrat Congressman Kendrick Meek into a three-way race where the outcome is less certain.

Six weeks ago Crist swore he wouldn’t switch parties. Apparently he’s figured that his political ambitions are more important to him than his personal integrity.

Crist’s party switch probably won’t affect Rubio’s election chances; he’s likely to win anyway, just not by the wide margin he expected against Meek, a very weak far-left candidate with a limited appeal outside of the black community. What the switch represents is a devastating blow to the credibility of “centrist” or “moderate” or “country-club” Republicans, because it’s another in a long string of examples of disloyalty, opportunism, vapidity and weakness among that set.

Crist joins the ignominious club of GOP turncoats like Arlen Specter, Lincoln Chaffee and Jim Jeffords, who when their supporters judged them as having displayed poor performance as Republican elected officials decided rather than to accept such electoral judgement to bolt the party and decry conservatives as “intolerant” or “out of the mainstream.” In no case which comes to mind have any of Crist’s predecessors found purchase in such a decision; Chaffee and Jeffords found themselves quickly consigned to irrelevance (Chaffee was beaten by Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in 2006 before switching parties in 2007), while Specter looks likely to lose the Democrat primary in Pennsylvania to Joe Sestak this fall.

Of course, last fall’s example of GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, whose record was far to the left of the party’s mainstream and garnered little support from its voters in the NY-23 Congressional special election before bowing out shortly before Election Day and endorsing Democrat Bill Owens, was another example of “moderate” Republican disloyalty.

Another GOP turncoat, Colin Powell, decried the lack of a “big tent” in the GOP for months prior to the 2008 election before endorsing Barack Obama less than a month before Election Day; Powell had the very candidate he had argued for in John McCain and stabbed McCain in the back anyway. Powell continues to whine about the exclusiveness of the Republican Party to this day, though few outside of the dinosaur media have any interest in what he’s saying.

Crist isn’t the national figure the other turncoats were. Instead, he’s just a silly orange man of dubious sexuality who people now understand will say and do anything for personal gain. He now represents what people cannot stand about politicians. That might be why, as Mark Ambinder reports, Rahm Emmanuel won’t take his call.

Neither will Crist’s donors, as a party switch will almost definitely turn off his money spigot. When Specter turned his coat on the GOP, The Club For Growth engineered a campaign to encourage his Republican donors to demand their money back, and that campaign resulted in an $800,000 hit to his war chest. As evidence of Crist’s calculating style and duplicity, however, Erick Erickson of Redstate.com reports that he’s already committed the bulk of his $7.5 million campaign fund to TV commercials – so rather than honor his donors’ demands for a refund he’s going to bend them over.

The PR value of such a decision isn’t exactly what you’d look for while you’re running for re-election.

So Crist is going to lose, and by November his political career, at least in Florida, will be  over. An interesting sidenote to his run as an independent will be the effect on the Democrats in that state; there is much talk among white monied liberals there about supporting Crist’s candidacy instead of that of Meek, their party’s nominee, and should that materialize one wonders whether Florida’s black community shouldn’t interpret that lack of support as racism – after all, Crist’s newfound support from left-wingers who previously despised him for the (faux) conservatism he espoused seems peculiar when he’s the only white candidate in a field which also includes an African-American who has voted for every leftist measure Nancy Pelosi could offer to the House, and a young, charismatic Hispanic. Should support Meek expects as the Democrat nominee melt to Crist, disappointment among black Florida Democrats would be well-warranted – and eventual recriminations hardly unexpected.

But if Crist is a loser, those who supported him prematurely and otherwise are subject to that designation as well.

John Cornyn’s role in Crist’s campaign deserves major scrutiny. Cornyn, the Texas Senator in charge of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, backed Crist long ago and has been twisting in the wind ever since Rubio’s campaign began making  cole slaw of him. The NRSC’s record of endorsing and supporting squishy candidates like Crist in GOP primaries is a clear one; beyond the fundamental stupidity of involving itself in Republican primaries, the idea is to get Republicans elected as Republicans who will stay Republicans – not to use Republican donor money to elect people who aren’t committed to the party. Cornyn has much to answer for upon Crist’s party-switch; he looks like a fool today.

So does Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose tepid leadership and give-ground style on Capitol Hill is perfectly epitomized by his appearence on Fox News Sunday a few days ago, in which he “prospectively” bashed Crist for an independent run and yet refused to rescind his previous endorsement. McConnell comes off as a reasonable fellow, but to have endorsed Crist in the first place showed poor judgement and to have continued in that endorsement when Crist began making noises of an independent run shows an almost willful blindness.

It’s long past time that the GOP recognize it must be conservative if it expects to govern. Unprincipled candidates like Crist need to be identified before money and support is wasted on them.

There is nothing wrong with a “Big Tent” philosophy. But “moderates” who aren’t even sure they’re on the Republican team certainly shouldn’t be in control of the party – membership does not equal leadership. Time and again, RINO’s have demonstrated themselves happy to throw the party under the bus to suit their own political ends, and time and again the only winners in such situations are Democrats. While Crist’s independent run might appear to have a happier ending for the GOP, it is yet another example of why traditional conservatism has to be the standard Republican candidates and the party’s leadership must bear.