2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – In general, we don’t analyze statewide polls until its primary has been conducted. However, since pollsters have been releasing multiple polls with different Democratic/Republican matchups for states that have not held their primaries, we will modify this rule as follows: if at least one of the major parties has a clear front runner in a contested primary, we will use the various poll matchups to get a sense of how a Senate/Governor race is leaning and, based on that composite of polls in the last 28 days, will assess which party is ahead.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black);

2010 Election Predictions – Senate Races

Senate Projections

(7/22 and 7/29 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)
(7/14 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)

Since our last analysis, we now have poll results for West Virginia. We are also changing the classification of two Senate races. In Missouri, Obama’s abysmal ratings have made it more difficult for the Democrat to capture this open Republican seat, and the Republican candidate has increased his poll lead from 47-45% to 48-42%. In California, a tossup Senate race has moved to “lean Democratic”, since the last three polls taken both show three term incumbent Boxer leading by more than 5%.

2010 Election Predictions – Governor’s Races

Governor Projections

( 7/29 projection: 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats, or Republican gain of +6)
(7/22 projection: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats, or Republican gain of +5)
(7/14 projection: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats, or Republican gain of +7)

Since our last analysis, we now have polls we can analyze for Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. We have increased our estimate of Republican gains from 5 to 6, because in Ohio, the last two polls taken show Republican John Kasich inching closer to 50% while maintaining a comfortable lead over the Democratic incumbent.
One thing we’d like to note in this analysis is the effect of third party candidacies on the outcome. Though poll averages show Democrats in the lead in Florida, Massachusetts, and Minnesota, a closer examination reveals that in those states, third party candidates are pulling 11-17% of the vote, enabling the Democrats to lead in the polls despite the fact that those “leads” in all three cases are with less than 40% of the vote. And in Rhode Island, the third party candidate for governor (former Republican Senator Lincoln Chadee) actually has a 37-32% lead over the Democrat.

Battle for Congress and Governor – House Races

(7/29 projection: 256 Republicans and 179 Democrats, or Republican gain of +77 – 18 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/22 projection: 258 Republicans and 177 Democrats, or Republican gain of +79 – 17 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/14 projection: 261 Republicans and 174 Democrats, or Republican gain of +82 – 14 Democrats on the “watch list”)

We had remarked in this post that while we are using theoretical criteria to estimate the change in partisan composition of the House, there is an even more important criteria: actual poll results as they become available. This past week, more polls have been released which enable us to have a clearer picture of seven House races involving incumbent Democrats. First, poll numbers for four incumbent Democrats previously classified as vulnerable show that, indeed, voters do not support their re-election, as they trail their Republican opponents by 6 to 12 points. We are also reclassifying the status of three incumbent Democratic Congressmen, due to recent poll numbers/incidents:

(1) Recent polling shows two term incumbent John Yarmuth (D-Kentucky) with a commanding 58-32% lead in an urban (Louisville) district that voted 56% for Barack Obama – we are therefore moving him from “Vulnerable” to “Safe Democratic”, despite a voting record that was down the line in support of the Democratic leadership;

(2) Recent polling shows 14 year incumbent Ron Kind (D-Wisconsin) with a 44-38% poll lead in a rural district bordering Minnesota that voted 58% for Barack Obama – in this case, we are moving him from “Vulnerable” to “Watch List”, as Rep. Kind also had a voting record that supported the the Democratic leadership;

(3) Last month, we put 6 year incumbent Ben Chandler (D-Kentucky) on the watch list, since he had a 45-38% lead in the polls. A recent poll came out showing him extending this lead to 46-32%. If his numbers continue to improve, we will reclassify him from “watch list” to “safe Democrat”, but for now, we’re keeping him on the “watch list”;

(4) We have yet another addition to the “Congressmen behaving badly” list: Barney Frank of Massachusetts created a scene recently when he didn’t receive a $1 senior discount to ride a ferry in New York – this discount was only for New York residents possessing the “senior discount card.”

2010 Election Predictions – Generic Congressional Vote

(7/29 poll composite: 44.9% Republican, 42,2% Democrat – +2.7% Republican)
(7/22 poll composite: 44.5% Republican, 42% Democrat – +2.5% Republican)
(7/15 poll composite: 45.1% Republican, 42.7% Democrat – +2.4% Republican)

Poll numbers continue to show a small trend towards Republican voter preference in the Congressional race, with three out of four polls taken in the past week indicating a slight overall Republican preference. To put this in perspective, when Republicans retook the House (and Senate) in 1994, the popular vote in the 435 House districts was 52-45% Republican. The 2.7% lead for the Republicans we have calculated would roughly translate to a 223 seat Republican majority, or a net gain of 44 Republicans.

Final Thoughts

As of today, 28 states have held their primaries, and all states but Delaware have concluded their candidate filing. The Oklahoma primaries held this past Tuesday were noticeable in three ways: (1) like New Mexico, both of the major party nominees for Governor are female, (2) a contested Democratic primary showed yet again (like in the Utah primary in June) that Democrats who voted against healthcare reform will NOT be punished by Democratic primary voters, despite threats of electoral revenge uttered by liberal groups. In this case, Dan Boren (D-Oklahoma) was renominated with 76% of the Democratic primary vote against a more liberal state senator, and (3) Republicans supporting TARP have consistently lost support in their primaries – the latest “Exhibit A” was 9 year incumbent John Sullivan, whose TARP vote led to his surviving his primary with a reduced 62% of the vote.

Staring next Tuesday, we are about to enter a busy cycle of primary elections, which will last until August 28 when Louisiana holds its partisan Congressional primaries (West Virginia is also holding party primaries for the Byrd seat on that day as well).

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

As this article is being written, Election Day is 14 weeks away. The predominant chatter among political pundits is not whether there will be Republican gains, but the extent of those gains, and whether those gains can produce a Republican wave large enough to enable them to retake the House, the Senate, or both houses of Congress (which the Republicans did in 1994 and the Democrats did in 2006). However, speculation about the ultimate outcome can lead to unrealistic hopes. We would therefore like to use the 1994 landslide (and its effect on the composition of the U.S. Senate) to assess the extent to which conditions present in 1994 can be replicated in this year’s elections.

1994: That Was Then

While the 1994 GOP landslide resulted in a Republican pickup of 8 Senate seats (and control of that chamber for the first time since 1986), several pieces of the electoral puzzle had to come together. In fact, the Republican wave actually originated in November 1992 with the election of Bill Clinton. The immediate effect of that election was the creation of two Senate vacancies due to the resignations of Al Gore (D-Tennessee) and Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) to become President Clinton’s Vice President and Treasury Secretary, respectively.

The GOP caught another lucky break when in early 1994, David Boren (D-Oklahoma) resigned his Senate seat to accept a position as president of the University of Oklahoma.  Though these three vacancies (the Boren, Gore, and Bentsen seats) themselves made the difference in terms of Senate control, the Republicans’ good fortune did not stop there. It also didn’t hurt that four more Democratic incumbents decided to retire that year. Finally, the Democrats’ luck ran out: the Democratic landslide class of 1958 was re-elected every six years due to a series of favorable events (the 1964 LBJ landslide, a weak economy in 1970 in Nixon’s first term, Jimmy Carter’s election in 1976, 11% unemployment in 1982 during Reagan’s first term, and a lack of Republican focus on congressional races in 1988 while instead focusing on George H.W. Bush’s election). The fact that this “landslide class” of Senators was overwhelmingly (20-13) Democratic gave the Republicans plenty of potential targets, and the Gore/Bentsen/Boren resignations boosted that total even further to 22 Democrats and 13 Republicans.

All of the factors listed above helped the Republicans on election day: the 51-45% vote for Republican Senate candidates (52-45% for Republican House candidates) enabled them to sweep to victory by capturing all open Democratic seats and by defeating two incumbent Democratic senators. However, the landslide nature of this election enabled the GOP to re-elect all of their incumbents while simultaneously holding onto the three open GOP seats.

While the Republicans’ “perfect storm” gave them control of the Senate, landslides also have two side effects. First, there are always the “ones who got away”; as political analyst Charlie Cook says  “…almost always some candidates who looked dead somehow survive and others who were deemed safe get sucked down in the undertow. That’s the nature of these beasts…” - as impressive as this “perfect storm” was for the GOP, there were still five incumbent Democratic senators who were re-elected with less than 55%.

Second, and equally as important, landslides also have unforeseen side effects. In addition to the “ones who got away”, landslides tend to sweep in weaker candidates, who then have a tough time getting re-elected under more normal circumstances. This, in fact, is what happened with the 1994 freshman Senate class (and, arguably, the 1980 Republican freshman class as well): four of these “landslide freshmen” were defeated in 2000, and their defeats ultimately contributed to a deadlocked 50-50 Senate that George W. Bush had to face after he was inaugurated in 2001.

2010: This Is Now

The 1994 GOP landslide happened because of voter sentiment and a unique set of favorable circumstances. Can those circumstances repeat themselves this year ?

Presidential election creating vacancies – In this instance, history has repeated itself and then some; not only were both President Obama and Vice President Biden incumbent senators, but several of their cabinet picks (Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and Ken Salazar as Secretary of Interior) were senators as well;

Retirements – In 1994, the lions’ share of retirements were on the Democratic side of the aisle. While the retirement of four Democratic senators (Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Evan Bayh in Indiana, Byron Dorgan in North Dakota, and the primary defeat of Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania) would seem to help Republican chances, the retirement of six Republican senatirs (plus a Republican primary defeat) make the picture less favorable to the Republicans this year;

Special circumstances – In 1994, Republicans benefitted from the resignation of David Boren of Oklahoma to take a university president’s job. While there were no such resignations in this election cycle, the death of  two veteran Democratic senators (Teddy Kennedy of Massachusetts and Robert Byrd of West Virginia) has created additional open seat opprtunities, and the Massachusetts seat has already been captured by the Republicans in a major upset this past January;

A large Democratic Senate class up for election –The 1994 elections were for an overwhelmingly (22-13) Democratic Senate class. Though there is an abnormally large class of 37 senators up for election this year, Republicans don’t have as many targets, since they hold 19 of those 37 seats. That means that even in a perfect election cycle, there are four less Democratic targets than there were in 1994;

Incumbent losses – The defeat of two incumbent Democratic Senators in 1994 was one of several factors which helped the Republicans recapture the Senate. This year, the seat of Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) appears to be a close to guaranteed Republican pickup, and Republicans still hope to topple (four term incumbent) Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada;

The wildcards – In a ”perfect night” for the Republicans, the factors listed above  would mean that holding on to all 12 GOP incumbents, plus all seven open GOP held seats, would result in a Senate with 52 Republicans. However, we don’t believe that Republicans can capture Hillary Clinton’s senate seat, because both Republicans and Conservatives are fielding separate candidates in heavily Democratic New York. Similarly, Democrats have strong candidates in open seat contests in Connecticut and West Virginia who have consistently polled above 50%. And in Illinois, Kentucky, and Nevada, Republican nominees have committed early blunders that may or may not come back to haunt them in November. Therefore, we see a Senate made up of 46-49 Republicans. The only way to get to a majority is to expand the playing field by defeating more Democratic incumbents. About the only places where that is possible are in more liberal states like California, Washington, and Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrats (who, incidentally, were all elected in 1992) are currently running neck and neck against their GOP opponents.

The roadmap to a 51 GOP Senate

For the Republicans to have a chance of retaking the Senate (since Vice-President Biden can cast the tie breaking vote, “retaking the Senate” means a Republican delegation of 51 members), all of the following have to happen: (1) hold onto all 12 GOP incumbents (including Louisiana’s David Vitter) and 7 GOP open seats, (2) capture enough open Democratic seats and/or defeat enough incumbents to get to 51 senators. Where will those pickups need to occur ? Below is our list of those seats (in ascending order of difficulty), as well as the composite of poll results for the last 28 days:

(1)    North Dakota – Republican lead of 69-22% (open seat)

(2)    Arkansas – Republican lead of 58-33%

(3)    Indiana – Republican lead of 51-30% (open seat)

(4)    Delaware – Republican lead of 44-38% (open seat)

(5)  Colorado – (contested primaries on both sides are on August 10 – we will publish poll results then for this open seat)

(5)  Pennsylvania – Republican lead of 44-40% (open seat)

The next list of seats will determine control of the Senate. Republicans must capture at least four of these five seats:

(1)    Nevada – Democratic lead of 45-43%

(2)    Illinois – Democratic lead of 40-39% (open seat)

(3)    Washington – Republican lead of 46-45%

(4)    Wisconsin – Democratic lead of 47-42%

(5)    California – Democratic lead of 47-44%

The last list of seats should theoretically be pickup opportunities for the GOP, but a combination of weak GOP candidates and/or strong Democratic candidates means we aren’t currently counting on winning any of these seats:

(1)    West Virginia – Democratic lead of 51-35% (open seat)

(2)    Connecticut – Democratic lead of 54-36% (open seat)

(3)    New York (Hillary Clinton’s seat) – Democratic lead of 51-28% (open seat)

A final note needs to be added: a lot can still happen. 23 states still have not held their primaries. Scandals could abruptly change the context of the race in an instant, like a plagiarism scandal recently did in the Colorado Governor’s race. And external events (oil spills, foreign policy crises, the economy) can either bolster or savage Democrats’ chances.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Again.

(For now.)

Some are predicting that the resurrection will occur after the November elections.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev) will bring legislation to the Senate floor next week that includes select energy policy and oil-spill response measures, but which excludes policy aimed at lowering “greenhouse gas emissions.”  Such climate change legislation had already been pared down to only address utilities, and now it’s out all together.

Aides to Reid indicated that the legislation had been reduced in scope because the Senate agenda is jam packed already, with the August recess (and campaigns for the November elections) only a few weeks away.  The aides indicated that Reid will introduce his climate change package in the fall.

Sans climate change, Reid’s bill will include measures to toughen drilling rig safety requirements, to fund energy improvement projects in homes, and to expedite the use of natural gas powered vehicles.  It will not include mandated increases in power generation from renewable fuels.

Why is Reid backing down?  We would suggest that there are several key factors at play, and specifically two.  Because of the fears many Democrats embrace with elections looming, he does not have a filibuster proof Senate.  Vulnerable Democrats are reluctant to support climate change legislation in August, then go home and ask constituents tired of the way Washington is running the country to vote for them again.  And, after that election, Reid will either have a confident, Democratic controlled Senate again, or more likely a lame duck Senate with nothing left to lose.

Furthermore, and as we reported recently, Congress has endorsed letting the EPA force greenhouse gas emission reductions without benefit of legislation.  The EPA can impose the Administration’s liberal agenda without immediate fear of backlash from voters, as they serve at the whim of the President.

Fortunately, the President under whom they presently serve will not always be President.

The validity of fearing a lame duck Congress making a last ditch effort to force its liberal agenda on America is a debate that has had voice at this site and elsewhere.  The debate will no doubt continue for the foreseeable future.  But for now, climate change legislation is dead.

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls; 

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points; 

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points; 

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – In general, we don’t analyze statewide polls until its primary has been conducted, However, since pollsters have been releasing multiple polls with different Democratic/Republican matchups for states that have not held their primaries, we will modify this rule. Therefore,  if at least one of the major parties has a clear front runner in a contested primary, we will use the various poll matchups to get a sense of how a Senate/Governor race is leaning and, based on that composite of polls in the last 28 days, will assess which party is ahead.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black); 

2010 Election Predictions - Senate Races   

(7/22 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)
(7/14 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)
(7/1 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)

Since our last analysis, we now have polls we can analyze for Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, New Hampshire, New York, and Wisconsin. We also have yet another Senate race:  in West Virginia, a special election has formally been set for November to replace the late Senator Robert Byrd. The state’s Democratic governor Joe Manchin starts off the favorite, although he has primary opposition he must deal with on August 28.

Our estimate of Republican pickups has also changed, as there have been three changes in our poll ratings. Delaware enters our analysis as “leans Republican”, and recent polling suggests that Pennsylvania can be moved from “Tossup” to “leans Republican.” We are also, in light of two recent favorable polls, moving Nevada from “leans Republican” to “Tossup”, as a barrage of negative ads from Senator Harry Reid’s ample war chest has succeeded, for now, in depressing his opponent’s poll numbers.

2010 Election Predictions - Governor’s Races   

(7/22 projection: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats, or Republican gain of +5)
(7/14 projection: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats, or Republican gain of +7)
(7/1 projection: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats, or Republican gain of +5)

Since our last analysis, we now have polls we can analyze for Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, and Wisconsin. We have also decreased our estimate of Republican gains from 7 to 5, as recent polling in Minnesota and Florida shows the Democrats in those Republican held states with narrow poll leads. There are several factors which have led to these reclassifications: (1) in Florida (August 24 primary), the Republican primary has steadily gotten nastier, and as a result, the Democratic candidate’s “lead” is due to her getting 35% in recent polls, while a third party candidate is pulling 15%, and 24% are currently undecided; (2) in Minnesota (August 10 primary), a third party candidate is pulling 11% of the vote, while the Democrat is at 39%. Furthermore, the Republican candidate hurt himself recently with recent remarks he made that minimum wage for waiters may need to be lowered because, with their tips, they can make over $100,000 a year.

While the Minnesota and Florida poll numbers currently look good for the Democrats, it’s also worth noting that we have moved the Texas Governor’s race from “leans Republican” to “solid Republican.” And there are currently seven governor’s races we have rated as “tossup”, of those seven, six are held by Democrats. 

Battle for Congress and Governor – House Races   

(7/22 projection: 258 Republicans and 177 Democrats, or Republican gain of +79 – 17 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/14 projection: 261 Republicans and 174 Democrats, or Republican gain of +82 – 14 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/1 projection: 260 Republicans and 175 Democrats, or Republican gain of +81 – 6 Democrats on the  “watch list”)

We had remarked in this post that while we are using theoretical criteria to estimate the change in partisan composition of the House, there is an even more important criteria: actual poll results as they become available. In the last week, polls have been released that show three incumbent Democrats previously classified by us as vulnerable with leads in the polls. However, all three are polling under 50% (in fact, two are polling in the low 40s, and one is polling at 46%), so we are moving these incumbents to the “watch list”: Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa), Dina Titus (D-Nevada), and Baron Hill (D-Indiana). Incidentally, all three Democrats voted for healthcare reform at least once.

However, while we are moving these Democrats to the “watch list”, there have also been polls released that confirm our “vulnerable” assessment of three incumbent Democrats: (1) Two term incumbent Gabrielle Giffords (D-Arizona) trails 45-44%, (2) 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D-Pennsylvania) trails the same opponent he narrowly defeated in 2008 by a whopping 57-36%, (3) freshman Tom Perriello (D-Virginia) was elected by less than 1,000 votes, and currently trails his Republican opponent 58-35%.

2010 Election Predictions - Generic Congressional Vote 

(7/22 poll composite: 44.5% Republican, 42% Democrat – +2.5% Republican)
(7/15 poll composite: 45.1% Republican, 42.7% Democrat – +2.4% Republican)
(7/1 poll composite: 44.1% Republican, 42.2% Democrat – +1.9% Republican)

Poll numbers have shown a small but consistent Republican lead in the “generic ballot” question. However, individual polls are showing wildly divergent results: in the last 7 days, for instance, seven polls were taken, with four showing a Republican preference (Rasmussen shows the strongest Republican preference at 45-36%) and three showing more people want a Democrat in Congress (Gallup shows the strongest Democratic numbers – 49-43%).

Final Thoughts

As of today, 27 states have held their primaries, and all states but Delaware have concluded their candidate filing. While this month has been quiet in terms of contested primaries, we are about to enter a bust five week stretch of primary elections, which will temporarily conclude on August 28 when Louisiana holds its partisan Congressional primaries.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

2010 Election Predictions - How we rank individual races (revised criteria)

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “lookback period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria: 

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls; 

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points; 

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points; 

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – Up until now, we have refrained from analyzing individual races until both parties’ nominees were selected for competitive primaries. However, we’ve noticed that several pollsters have been releasing multiple polls with different Democratic/Republican matchups for states that have not held their primaries. Since we want to paint a complete and accurate picture of the 2010 races, we therefore are slightly modifying our rule as to which polls we will analyze: starting with this analysis, if at least one of the major parties has a clear front runner in a contested primary, we will use the various poll matchups to get a sense of how a Senate/Governor race is leaning and, based on that composite of polls in the last 28 days, will assess which party is ahead.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black); 

2010 Election Predictions - Senate Races  

(7/14 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)
(7/1 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)
(6/22 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4) 

Since our last analysis, the Senate race in Pennsylvania has tightened into “too close to call” territory, which is understandable given the fact that Pennsylvania has always been a competitive state. However, we have similarly noticed that the California Senate race (featuring three term incumbent Barbara Boxer) has recently slipped from “leans Democratic” to “tossup” as well.

While the June 28 death of longtime Senator Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) would seem to create another open seat race/pickup opportunity for the Republicans, the Democratic governor (who has considerable bipartisan popularity) is strongly considering running for the seat this fall; until then, he will appoint a caretaker to keep the seat in Democratic hands until the end of the year. All that remains is for the Democratic legislature to go into special session to clarify the election law to provide for a special election to be held in November.  The only unknown about this race is whether the state’s lone Republican (Shelley Moore Capito) would give up her safe House seat to run for the Senate.

 2010 Election Predictions - Governor’s Races  

Governor Projections

(7/14 projection: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats, or Republican gain of +7)
(7/1 and 6/22 projections: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats, or Republican gain of +5)

Though the Oregon Governor’s race has moved from “Leans Republican” to “Tossup” (the Republican lead has shrunk down to 44-43%), we are for the first time including poll results from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee that are rated as “Safe Republican” and, in this case, are all projected GOP pickups. Furthermore, we have been receiving recent poll results from Maryland showing a tossup race in that Democratic state – the Republican governor who was defeated for re-election in the Democratic wave of 2006 is seeking a comeback, and currently is tied with the incumbent at 45-45%.

Battle for Congress and Governor – House Races   

(7/14 projection: 261 Republicans and 174 Democrats, or Republican gain of +82, with 14 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/1 projection: 260 Republicans and 175 Democrats, or Republican gain of +81, with 6 Democrats on the  “watch list”)
(6/22 projection: 260 Republicans and 175 Democrats, or Republican gain of +81, with 5 Democrats on the “watch list”) 

Two recent events have caused us to revise our estimate of Republican gains: (1) the ranks of  ”Congressman behaving badly”  (explained here) has expanded by one, as Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas) was caught on camera losing his cool in front of a constituent who accused him of not telling the truth about the costs of healthcare reform – though he already was on our watch list due to weak poll numbers, we are now promoting him to this special group of vulnerable Democrats; (2) we had explained in a prior posting that nine incumbent Democrats we had previously thought were safe voted against the party’s budget. We speculated that this “no” vote was due to internal warning signs they were getting that not all was well in their district, thus causing them to “vote their district” to save their political hides. Therefore, we are adding these Democrats to our “watch list”: Bobby Bright (D-Alabama), Rob Filner (D-California), Jim Marshall (D-Georgia), Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Dan Lipinski (D-Illinois), Mike Michaud (D-Maine), Gene Taylor (D-Mississippi), Ike Skelton (D-Missouri), and  John Adler (D-New Jersey).

2010 Election Predictions - Generic Congressional Vote 

(7/1 poll composite: 45.1% Republican, 42.7% Democrat – +2.4% Republican)
(7/1 poll composite: 44.1% Republican, 42.2% Democrat – +1.9% Republican)
(6/22 poll composite: 44% Republican, 42.2% Democrat – +1.8% Republican)

Recent polling has detected a noticeable trend towards those who plan to vote for a Republican for Congress this fall. It’s also worth noting that these polls are typically taken both of chronic and occasional voters and thus understate the more energized Republican vote; a recent poll conducted only of likely voters showed a 56-41% GOP preference for Congressional elections. To put this number in perspective, when the GOP recaptured both houses of Congress in 1994 for the first time since 1994, the GOP/Democratic vote for House candidates was 52-45%. If this 56% number were the actual GOP House vote on Election Day, we could easily see GOP gains in the 80 seat range, as our projections have suggested or some time.

In the next installment of this article (we are waiting for Congressional filing to close in New York at the close of business today), we will discuss upcoming primaries in August and September.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

It seems over the weekend, Rep. Charlie Melancon, Democrat candidate for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by David Vitter, took a trip up to Canada to attend a confab of trial lawyers who were having a meeting that included a roster of Democrat senatorial candidates.

Melancon’s presence at that get-together appears to be growing in its significance to his race against Vitter – and not in a way the Congressman would like.

Yesterday afternoon, the Vitter campaign put out a release slamming Melancon for attending a reception for The Committee For A Better Future, a campaign arm of what used to be called the Association of Trial Lawyers of America and now dubs itself the American Association for Justice (which is only slightly Orwellian, but there you have it). The reception was Sunday, and Melancon’s name was on the roster of bigwigs slated to attend along with such Democrat luminaries as Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, Connecticut Attorney General and Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal, Missouri Secretary of State and Senate candidate Robin Carnahan, AAJ/ATLA Past President Roxanne Conlin of Iowa, who is running against Chuck Grassley for a Senate seat, Kentucky Attorney General and Senate candidate Jack Conway, County Executive and Delaware Senate candidate Chris Coons, Indiana Congressman and Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, Ohio Lieutenant Governor and Senate candidate Lee Fisher, Illinois State Treasurer and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias, New Hampshire Congressman and Senate candidate Paul Hodes and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

It’s an extremely left-wing group, and other than Blumenthal all of the Senate candidates on hand for that event are either losing their races to Republicans or tied at best. But the AAJ put on an event to help reverse their fortunes, while running pictures of oiled birds on their website and articles suggesting changes to the law so as to make suing people easier for Gulf oil spill torts.

Melancon has clammed up about his Vancouver trip on Sunday. He’s not alone. In Chicago, Sun-Times reporter Lynn Sweet pried an admission out of Giannoulias’ campaign that he was there, and also uncovered the fact that admission for AAJ members to the event ranged from $250 for the proletarians to $43,000 for the fatcats. Reid pulled 20 percent of that take, and Bennet 9.3 percent, while the rest of the group – Melancon included – picked up 7.07 percent each.

Reid’s take became fodder for a National Republican Senatorial Committee blast, as well as some pointed barbs from his opponent Sharron Angle’s campaign:

“Could Harry Reid be anymore out of touch to think that leaving the United States to raise campaign cash is appropriate while Nevada tops the nation with 14 percent unemployment? What was Harry Reid thinking and, more importantly, where exactly are his priorities?” asked National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh, in a release put out Monday morning by the NRSC.

The campaign of Reid’s Republican challenger, Sharron Angle, followed with their own statement a few hours later.

“Harry Reid says that ‘no one can do more’ for Nevada, so why does he have to leave the country to pad his war chest? It seems callous,” says Angle campaign spokesman Jerry Stacy, in the statement.

Melancon, of course, got off no easier, as Vitter campaign spokesman Luke Bolar took aim at him yesterday afternoon:

“The ‘Canada First’ tour must not have sounded quite as nice for the Melancon campaign kick-off,” Luke Bolar, spokesman for David Vitter for U.S. Senate said. “It looks like Melancon went up to Canada to raise campaign contributions from trial lawyers who will be retiring off of Louisiana families. If that’s the case, I’m sure Melancon’s constituents want to know why he was meeting with trial lawyers in Canada instead of Louisianians first.”

Vitter’s campaign release also noted that he has proposed a cap of five percent on attorney fees in Gulf oil spill cases, which looks like political gold given Melancon’s fundraising trips in Vancouver.

He’s trying to help Harry Reid, but I don’t think he does with this speech.

     Hayride readers are all too familiar with the on, off, on again moratorium on offshore oil exploration.  You’re probably much less familiar with the moratorium on little Tommy Edison’s light bulb.

Thomas Alva Edison invented the incandescent light bulb, after well over a thousand experiments and failed attempts.  He founded General Electric in 1876 and received his patent on the light bulb in January of 1880.  Having served society well for 130 years now, it will be outlawed in favor of “green” fluorescent bulbs beginning in 2012.  Oddly, or so it seems at the surface, General Electric lobbied the government to do this, out of their social conscience and their concern for the environment.

Hardly!  GE is closing incandescent bulb factories in Ohio (11% unemployment), Kentucky (10.4%) and Virginia (7.1%) and moving the work of manufacturing fluorescent bulbs to China, where they are less regulated, and where labor is cheaper.  Yet chief lobbyist and GE Chairman Jeffrey Immelt is now on a tear and ripping his buddy Barack a new one because Captain Kickass has gone overboard with business regulation.

The incandescent light bulb became the symbol for climate change and global warming, as they emit more heat than fluorescent bulbs.  But only Al Gore and Harry Reid still believe we need to address global warming, the supporting science for which has been proven fraudulent.

Other than reducing ambient heat, what does the “curly cue” light bulb do for the environment?  Not much, until it breaks and releases mercury into the surrounds.  Broken light bulbs are not an uncommon occurrence, but when one of these breaks, kindly refer to the multiple pages of cleanup instructions offered by the EPA.  Suffice it to say here that should you break one on your bedding, you should seal the bedding in non-biodegradeable plastic bags and dispose of it, as washing it may release mercury into the wastewater stream, potentially poisoning waste treatment facilities and ending up in rivers and streams.

Don’t just toss an expended one in the trash, either.  You’ll need to collect your old light bulbs and take them to a recycling center dedicated to that purpose, as you surely do with rechargeable batteries today.  Should these bulbs be disposed of in landfills, and break as they inevitably will, that mercury will ultimately find itself in soils and groundwater.  In decades that follow, we’ll be glad to have national healthcare to pay for treating all the illnesses from the toxic poison we’re ingesting to prevent global warning.

Do government bureaucracies ever think anything through?

This moratorium, actually the light bulb heat emission standard, an element of the Environmental Independence and Security Act, was signed into law in 2007.  Obama really can blame Bush for this one!

We are now in an “eye of the storm”, so to speak, of the 2010 election cycle. As this article is being written, 26 states have held their primaries, and Congressional filing just concluded in 42 states (Rhode Island’s filing concluded on June 30).  Next week, Congressional filing will conclude in Maryland and Louisiana (Qualifying time in Louisiana is between Wednesday July 7 and Friday July 9). Currently in Louisiana, only two Congressional districts (Cao’s in New Orleans and the seat in “Bayou Country” that Charlie Melancon has vacated to run for the U.S. Senate) are likely to be seriously contested. The other five seats currently are not contested or the competition is insignificant.

After next Friday, Congressional filing will then conclude in the remaining states by July 30, and the only July elections will be runoffs in Alabama and primaries in Georgia and Oklahoma. Political activity picks back up in August, when 12 states hold primaries. In these series of elections, it’s possible that 1-3 Senate incumbents (including Arizona’s John McCain) may join the ranks of those defeated in their own primaries.

Louisiana Senate race – recent polling

In a prior article , we noted that Senator Vitter had a solid 51-31% lead in a Magellan poll (based on our knowledge of polling preferences of black voters, however, we believe that the Democrat really has 38% - not 31%).  A recent Rasmussen poll also showed Senator Vitter with a strong lead; in this case, his poll lead was 53-35%, which is almost identical to an April Rasmussen poll showing him leading 52-36%. What is noteworthy about this survey was that it was taken after some some unfavorable publicity related to a longtime Vitter aide who had pled guilty to attacking an ex-girlfriend with a knife – this revelation was one some speculated might hurt Vitter’s campaign. However, two numbers in the poll are continuing to help the Vitter campaign: (1) by a solid 67-28% margin, Louisiana voters favor repeal of healthcare reform legislation, and (2) Obama has a 58-40% unfavorability rating with Louisiana vcters.

Louisiana House of Representatives changes

Two newsworthy events happened in this past week in the Louisiana House of Representatives. The Republicans gained a new member, as freshman Simone Champagne (D-Jeanerette) recently switched parties. Her switch created a 51-51 tie in that chamber (there are also three Independents). There will also be a special election held soon in the House, as term limited legislator Wayne Waddell (R-Shreveport) will be resigning his seat to take a position as director of the Louisiana State Exhibit Museum. His district voted 71% for McCain and should remain in GOP hands whenever the election is held.

2010 Election Predictions - How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days using the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map)- either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) - until the party nominees have been selected for competitive primaries, we will not be analyzing polls for that race. In other words, we will not be assessing the races in 24 states until (in some cases) mid September;

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black);

2010 Election Predictions - Senate Races

Senate Projections

(7/2 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)

(6/22 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)

Since last week, additional polling taken in the Nevada Senate race show a slight tightening: Sharron Angle’s original post primary lead of 50-39% has softened a bit to 48-41%, and we are therefore reclassifying this race from “Solid Republican” to “Leans Republican.” In Pennsylvania, a new Rasmussen poll shows Republican Pat Toomey with a 45-39% lead, which is virtually identical to a 45-38% lead he had four weeks ago. We are therefore reclassifying this race from “Tossup” to “Leans Republican.” Finally, now that Utah has held its party primaries, we can report that Republican Mike Lee starts off with a substantial 58-28% lead over his Democratic opponent – you may recall that this was a race where the 18 year Republican incumbent Bob Bennett didn’t even get on the primary ballot.

While the June 28 death of longtime Senator Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) would seem to create another open seat race/pickup opportunity for the Republicans, the Secretary of State’s interpretation of election law means that a caretaker will be likely appointed by the state’s Democratic Governor, and an election will then be held for the open seat in 2012. Whenever the election is held, if the Democratic governor jumps in, he’s the favorite. However, Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (the daughter of a popular former governor) would be a strong candidate if she were to announce.

2010 Election Predictions - Governor’s Races

Governor Projections

If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.

The night’s results early on saw 12 year Congressional incumbent Bob Inglis (R-South Carolina) badly trailing in his primary 28-39% – at this point, we question whether he would even bother competing in the June 22 runoff. Over in South Dakota, Secretary of State Chris Nelson’s attempt to get the blessing of the state’s GOP voters for the state’s at large House seat was rejected 42-35% by state representative/rancher Kristi Noem, who was labeled by some as “South Dakota’s Sarah Palin.” In California, defeated former incumbent Richard Pombo attempted a comeback by moving to a different district centered on Fresno and bragging to potential constituents about the clout he once had. Voters were unimpressed, and he ran a distant third with 20%. Finally, the night also saw the first defeat of this election season of an incumbent governor, as Jim Gibbons (R-Nevada) was humiliated 27-56% in his own primary against Brian Sandoval, who was a federal judge and former Attorney General of Nevada.

Despite the upsets and/or defeats noted above, incumbents and/or establishment candidates also survived and, in some cases, thrived. In Virginia, candidates preferred by the GOP establishment defeated Tea Party backed challengers in two House seats Democrats won in 2008 due to Barack Obama’s coattails. GOP incumbents in New Jersey also were re-elected with margins between 56 and 78% of the vote despite Tea Party opposition. Furthermore, there was a “Back To The Future” quality to some of tonight’s gubernatorial primary victories, as former Governor Terry Branstad  (R-Iowa) was victorious in his primary by a 50-41% margin, and Calfornia Democrats easily nominated Jerry Brown as their party’s standard bearer (Curiously, these two Governors seeking their old jobs may also be joined by the former Governors of Oregon and Georgia, who are similarly seeking a comeback). Finally, the biggest win for the establishment tonight was the survival in the Democratic runoff of Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. Despite a tepid 45-43% lead in the primary and runoff polls showing her trailing her labor backed opponent, she eked out a 52-48% win based on (1) a strong vote out of Little Rock, (2) resentment at the “over the top” influence of organized labor, and (3) campaign help from former President Bill Clinton, who warned Arkansas voters about their being used by those seeking party purity. The Clinton endorsement, incidentally, also helped former Congressional staffer Chad Causey eke out a 51% runoff victory in northeast Arkansas over a Democrat some feared would “pull a Parker Griffith” and switch parties after getting elected.

Another theme of tonight’s primaries was the volume of female candidates from either party who will be on the general election ballot. In addition to the races in Arkansas and South Dakota mentioned above,  South Carolina state representative Nikki Haley (who is of Indian descent) benefitted from a backlash against racial slurs used (she was referred to as a “raghead”) and unproven allegations that she had extramarital affairs and led in the GOP primary 49-22% over Congressmen Gresham Barrett. The word on the street is that the Republican Governor’s Association will attempt to pressure Barrett to withdraw, and it doesn’t help Rep. Barrett that his TARP vote was greeted with boos when he attempted to address a recent Tea Party rally. An open House seat in Little Rock, Arkansas will also see a black female, Senate Majority Leader Joyce Elliott, as the Democratic nominee, despite her opponent’s attempts to describe her as being unelectable because of her ”extreme views” on issues. Over in Nevada, Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle will be the Republican nominee against 24 year Senate (and 4 year House) incumbent Harry Reid. Finally, in California, the Republicans can proudly say that this is their “Year of the Woman”, as well financed female executives Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman are overwhelming their primary opponents in the races for Senator and Governor, respectively.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.