Disagree? OK, fine. Ask yourself if Quayle managed to make two profoundly stupid statements in one short speech like Biden did over the weekend…

Vice President Biden equated Republicans taking over Congress in the upcoming elections with opium gang feuds at an event Friday, and he didn’t stop there.

Biden warned the crowd at an Iowa rally of a pending Republican takeover.

“If these guys take over the House and the Senate this next time out… it will be a Tong War for the next two years,” Biden said.

The Tong Wars were feuds among rival Asian gangs in U.S. cities over the opium trade in the mid-1800s and early 1900s.

Biden also said it would ultimately have been better for Democrats if the Bush-era policies had lasted longer.

“It would have been better to lose last time, have four more years of really bad, bad policy and have no doubt about why all this occurred and then had a decade of trying to bring America around,” Biden said.

But despite his assumedly facetious 2008 revisionism, he imparted advice to the crowd about how to deal with Republican talk on government spending.

“The next time a Republican tells you anything about ‘fiscal responsibility,’ laugh at ‘em, just laugh at ‘em,” Biden said.

Biden might know more about the opium trade than anybody else in Washington, for all we know. But in other respects, he’s a blockhead of the first magnitude. That seems clear.

Which wouldn’t be anybody’s problem but Delaware’s, since they had this clown as their senator for four decades. But it’s our problem because the Rabble-Rouser-In-Chief, in his clean, articulate manner, picked him to be a heartbeat away from the most important job in the world.

Maybe it’s a bit of self-preservation for Obama to have done so. Even lunatics won’t try to kill the president with Biden waiting in the wings.

Sure won’t help Democrat congressional candidates, though.

It is a lawyers’ adage: If you have the law on your side, argue the law; if you have the facts, argue the facts; if you have neither, pound the table. Forgive the Democrats for their current table-pounding.”

This rhetoric is a poignant description of the deplorable state of the Democratic party. Only, pardon me, Mr. Will, if I won’t forgive the Democrats the desperation of their tactics.  Nope, I won’t give them that, and they aren’t entitled to it either.  Its the result of their own foolish policy-making over the past two years, policy that is upheld by two crumbling walls: ineffective stimulus and hugely unpopular Obamacare.  Forgive? Never. Admonish? Forever.

Will refers to Michael Barone’s appropriate description of Obamacare as, “the most unpopular major legislation since the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854.”  What a policy decision to stand on, huh? More like a trap door.

The stimulus? A report came out today about its supposed effectiveness.  It was an assessment organized by Joe Biden at Obama’s behest.  Yes, I know, thats all you need to know to discredit the believability the entire study, but humor me for a moment and let me explain just how ludicrous this report actually is.  Does the study provide documented evidence of economic growth? No. What it claims is that because the stimulus package, compared with other money spending legislation, is relatively free of fraud, the entire bill is successful.  Here is a quote about this “success:”

Certainly, the fraud and waste element has been smaller than I think anything anybody anticipated,” said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan watchdog group. “You can certainly challenge some projects as questionable economically. But there haven’t been the examples of outright fraud where the money is essentially lining somebody’s pocket.”

Wow.  Is that what we’ve really come to?  Democrats claiming an economic stimulus bill is effective because there was little fraud in the distribution of its funds is absolute insanity.  The stimulus bill was supposed to accomplish economic stimulus (yes, what a shocker).  It didn’t stimulate the economy. So, therefore, it failed.  But wait! There was no fraud, though…says the desperate Democrat.  Actually there was fraud– alibeit less than usual– and actually that doesn’t matter at all because it didn’t help the American people or small buisness significantly. 

“You can certainly challenge some projects as questionable economically.”  Yes, we will, and we really don’t care if there wasn’t any fraud: why?  Well, to answer a question with a question, why give people credit for acheiving the basic responsibilities of their job?  Does a mechanic get credit for screwing a bolt on tightly?  Ridiculous.

So, Democrats, stop trying to support your policy.  Just stop it.  Go back to your table pounding.  Because every time you try to give support to what you do, you just make yourselves look more pathetic.  Maybe I will forgive the table-pounding after all.  It’s certainly better than this garbage.

//

Since there has been a decent amount of polling done (as of today, polls have been released for all but the Hawaii Senate race) , we therefore have a better feel for how the race for the Senate is progressing.

Continue reading at http://winwithjmc.com/archives/1657

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

O’Donnell has been hammered by the GOP establishment in the past month, just as her campaign has eclipsed Castle’s and for the first time she has taken a small lead in the polls. There has been enough dirt on the insurgent candidate spread of late to fill in the Grand Canyon, and if you’re looking for an argument why she’s unworthy of support it’s not hard to find one. O’Donnell isn’t cut from the Carly Fiorina-Linda McMahon cloth, whereby she made millions as a businesswoman and demonstrated a keen ability for management or entrepreneurship. O’Donnell isn’t even a Sharron Angle, who made a reputation as a hard-core principled state legislator even if that meant lots of local politicos disparaged her for being an extremist.

O’Donnell is more your regular-Joe. She doesn’t have an impressive bio at all; in a more Republican-friendly state than Delaware she’d probably have won a small race or two and moved up from county commissioner to state senator, but instead she’s been something of a serial candidate and a performer of odd jobs in marketing and public relations. She only recently finished her college degree and it appears she’s embellished her accomplishments – though she hasn’t claimed to have fought in Vietnam or held herself out as a law professor – on her campaign bio.

Allen West or Rob Portman, she’s not. I get that. In a larger state than Delaware, with a healthier Republican Party, she wouldn’t have a chance at an office this high.

But, as Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin, among others, have noticed, O’Donnell is an actual conservative. She ran for Senate in Delaware as a real conservative in 2008, when it was supposedly poisonous to do so, and got clobbered in the process. And while she’s an unimpressive individual, unimpressive individuals in the Senate are the rule rather than the exception. The difference is that O’Donnell is an unimpressive individual who isn’t connected to the Ivy League-Wall Street ruling class like, for example, Kristin Gillibrand or Chris Dodd are.

Meanwhile, on the Establishment side of this divide we have Mike Castle, an entrenched incumbent politician who has been Delaware’s only congressman for nine terms (that’s 18 years) and was the state’s governor at one time. Castle is 70 years old and his voting record is absolutely noxious to conservatives. He styles himself a moderate, which would be an accurate description if your definition of a moderate politician would encompass Ron Wyden or Mary Landrieu. Castle is, in fact, the most left-wing Republican in the House of Representatives; he’s the very definition of a RINO.

How bad is Castle? Well, via Michelle Malkin let’s take a look at his record on energy for example:

 * Voted YES on enforcing limits on CO2 global warming pollution. (Jun 2009)
* Voted YES on tax credits for renewable electricity, with PAYGO offsets. (Sep 2008)
* Voted YES on tax incentives for energy production and conservation. (May 2008)
* Voted YES on tax incentives for renewable energy. (Feb 2008)
* Voted YES on investing in homegrown biofuel. (Aug 2007)
* Voted YES on criminalizing oil cartels like OPEC. (May 2007)
* Voted YES on removing oil & gas exploration subsidies. (Jan 2007)
* Voted YES on keeping moratorium on drilling for oil offshore. (Jun 2006)
* Voted YES on scheduling permitting for new oil refinieries. (Jun 2006)
* Voted NO on authorizing construction of new oil refineries. (Oct 2005)
* Voted NO on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy. (Jun 2004)
* Voted NO on implementing Bush-Cheney national energy policy. (Nov 2003)
* Voted NO on raising CAFE standards; incentives for alternative fuels. (Aug 2001)
* Voted YES on prohibiting oil drilling & development in ANWR. (Aug 2001)
* Voted YES on starting implementation of Kyoto Protocol. (Jun 2000)
* Establish greenhouse gas tradeable allowances. (Feb 2005)
* Rated 33% by CAF, indicating a mixed record on energy independence. (Dec 2006)
* Sign on to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. (Jan 2007)
* Supports immediate reductions in greenhouse gases. (Sep 1998)

That’s not a moderate voting record. That’s a left-wing nightmare of a voting record.

Castle also voted for the DISCLOSE Act, TARP, that $26 billion greasing of the teachers’ unions a couple weeks ago and Cap and Trade. He’s got a lifetime near-100 percent rating from NARAL and Planned Parenthood. The National Rifle Association has given him an “F” rating since the early 1990′s. The Club For Growth gave Castle a 43 percent rating in 2009, which was a high-water mark in recent years (and a product of increased party discipline with a smaller GOP caucus) after ratings of 35 and 26 in 2007 and 2008. In fact, when Castle earned a 26 in 2008 from the Club For Growth, Arlen Specter earned a 44.

As Limbaugh, Dan Riehl and Erick Erickson have both noted, GOP majorities peppered by Mike Castles are majorities in name alone. You can’t make policy with a Mike Castle in your camp, because you will either have to continually bribe him with pork and thus sabotage your credibility with the American people or you will watch him fight against you. Such a majority merely makes the Republicans responsible for policy and presents the Obama administration with an even more inviting target for demonization (the distinctly uncharismatic and boring Mitch McConnell) than their past and present bogeymen Limbaugh, George W. Bush and now John Boehner. With a Castle teaming with Lindsey Graham, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and (probably) John McCain, the GOP will be credited with 51 votes when they’ve actually got 46. There is no difference between the two other than having the responsibility for setting the agenda.

On the other hand, if Angle manages to knock off Harry Reid (she leads by one point in the latest poll), the Republicans might be in the minority in a Chuck Schumer-led Senate. This is electoral gold in 2012, when the vast majority of the seats up for re-election will be Democrat seats. When the country gets a look at Schumer’s leadership they’ll recoil in a similar fashion to what we’ve seen with Reid, if not more so.

This assumes the Delaware race will make the difference between 50 and 51 seats, when it’s probably more likely to make the difference between 48 and 49, or 51 and 52. In other words, it’s by no means proven that the nomination decided tonight will hold the GOP Senate majority’s fate.

The Overton Window, by Glenn Beck
After The Hangover, by R. Emmett Tyrrell
Nullification, by Tom Woods

For most of us out here in Flyover Territory, the personages of the people in the White House aren’t an item of particular concern, and the lives of the President and his family hold only passing interest. The President is a politician, after all, not a celebrity – and short of sex or money scandals, it’s just none of our business.

Or at least that’s my take.

But in The Obama Diaries, radio talk host and Fox News pundit Laura Ingraham crafts a satirical world in which the President IS a celebrity, surrounded by a shrewish First Lady, a slew of sycophant staffers, a stumbling and screwy Vice President and others. Ingraham’s world seems fairly close to real life, and she cuts deeply.

The premise of the book is that Ingraham gets dropped off a package of documents by a secretive stranger who tells her “You’ll know what to do,” and upon opening the package, she finds that they’re actually diary entries from President Obama, the First Lady, Vice President Joe Biden, OMB Director Peter Orszag, former White House Social Secretary Desiree Rogers, Sen. Harry Reid, Obama’s Mother-In-Law Melanie Robinson, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, chief White House political strategist David Axelrod – even Russian proto-dictator Vladimir Putin is in the group.

Of course, the “diaries” are fictional. They’re funny as hell. They’re all in different fonts, and they paint a picture of their “authors” which in most cases is a caricature of the persona the public already perceives. Obama, for example, is pathologically self-absorbed and thinks he can do nothing wrong; Michelle Obama alternates between tyrannizing her kids and her husband and burnishing an image as the new Jackie Kennedy. Axelrod is the fawning sycophant, Emanuel’s diaries are peppered with F-bombs and violent threats, Clinton plots and schemes to overthrow the Obamas and Biden fulminates over his thinning hair and women out of his league (including his wife).

It’s a quick read and a laugh a minute. Ingraham is a terrific satirist.

The diaries are about half the book. The rest is pretty standard conservative talk-show stuff. Ingraham deals with the 18-month history of the Obama administration – his foreign-policy change of direction, Obamacare, the stimulus, the Beer Summit, the constant parties and celebrity schmoozing, and the rest – with facts, figures, logic and philosophy. It’s well-written and pithy, but it’s nothing particularly novel or earth-shaking for those of us already immersed in the movement.

But a few points she makes in the book are worth passing along.

One of the best is the exhortation to conservatives – and Americans as a whole – is to reject the “five stages of grief” as a template to deal with Obama’s election and the perception of American decline. The five stages, of course, are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Going beyond anger is a mistake, she says, because nothing about the Obama administration or our declining competitiveness is set in stone.

The urging to “rage against the dying of the light” pervades much of the polemical part of The Obama Diaries – whether the subject is economics, physical fitness, foreign policy or politics. Ingraham continuously rails against private citizens or companies backing down in the face of an overweening government. She indicts health insurers for playing ball with the president on Obamacare, auto company bondholders for allowing themselves to be buffaloed by the president as he handed GM and Chrysler over to the unions and Obama himself for the constant apologizing for America.

It’s a good vision to communicate, and it’s well-articulated with a positive, if sometimes caustic, tone. The Obama Diaries is a fun, light read on heavy subjects and well worth picking up – even if it’ll do more to brighten your mood than enlighten your political philosophy.

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “lookback period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria: 

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls; 

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points; 

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points; 

(4) No data available/primary has not been held (gray) – Up until now, we have refrained from analyzing individual races until both parties’ nominees were selected for competitive primaries. However, we’ve noticed that several pollsters have been releasing multiple polls with different Democratic/Republican matchups for states that have not held their primaries. Since we want to paint a complete and accurate picture of the 2010 races, we therefore are slightly modifying our rule as to which polls we will analyze: starting with this analysis, if at least one of the major parties has a clear front runner in a contested primary, we will use the various poll matchups to get a sense of how a Senate/Governor race is leaning and, based on that composite of polls in the last 28 days, will assess which party is ahead.

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black); 

2010 Election Predictions - Senate Races  

(7/14 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4)
(7/1 projection: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, or Republican gain of +5)
(6/22 projection: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans, or Republican gain of +4) 

Since our last analysis, the Senate race in Pennsylvania has tightened into “too close to call” territory, which is understandable given the fact that Pennsylvania has always been a competitive state. However, we have similarly noticed that the California Senate race (featuring three term incumbent Barbara Boxer) has recently slipped from “leans Democratic” to “tossup” as well.

While the June 28 death of longtime Senator Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) would seem to create another open seat race/pickup opportunity for the Republicans, the Democratic governor (who has considerable bipartisan popularity) is strongly considering running for the seat this fall; until then, he will appoint a caretaker to keep the seat in Democratic hands until the end of the year. All that remains is for the Democratic legislature to go into special session to clarify the election law to provide for a special election to be held in November.  The only unknown about this race is whether the state’s lone Republican (Shelley Moore Capito) would give up her safe House seat to run for the Senate.

 2010 Election Predictions - Governor’s Races  

Governor Projections

(7/14 projection: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats, or Republican gain of +7)
(7/1 and 6/22 projections: 29 Republicans, 21 Democrats, or Republican gain of +5)

Though the Oregon Governor’s race has moved from “Leans Republican” to “Tossup” (the Republican lead has shrunk down to 44-43%), we are for the first time including poll results from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee that are rated as “Safe Republican” and, in this case, are all projected GOP pickups. Furthermore, we have been receiving recent poll results from Maryland showing a tossup race in that Democratic state – the Republican governor who was defeated for re-election in the Democratic wave of 2006 is seeking a comeback, and currently is tied with the incumbent at 45-45%.

Battle for Congress and Governor – House Races   

(7/14 projection: 261 Republicans and 174 Democrats, or Republican gain of +82, with 14 Democrats on the “watch list”)
(7/1 projection: 260 Republicans and 175 Democrats, or Republican gain of +81, with 6 Democrats on the  “watch list”)
(6/22 projection: 260 Republicans and 175 Democrats, or Republican gain of +81, with 5 Democrats on the “watch list”) 

Two recent events have caused us to revise our estimate of Republican gains: (1) the ranks of  ”Congressman behaving badly”  (explained here) has expanded by one, as Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas) was caught on camera losing his cool in front of a constituent who accused him of not telling the truth about the costs of healthcare reform – though he already was on our watch list due to weak poll numbers, we are now promoting him to this special group of vulnerable Democrats; (2) we had explained in a prior posting that nine incumbent Democrats we had previously thought were safe voted against the party’s budget. We speculated that this “no” vote was due to internal warning signs they were getting that not all was well in their district, thus causing them to “vote their district” to save their political hides. Therefore, we are adding these Democrats to our “watch list”: Bobby Bright (D-Alabama), Rob Filner (D-California), Jim Marshall (D-Georgia), Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Dan Lipinski (D-Illinois), Mike Michaud (D-Maine), Gene Taylor (D-Mississippi), Ike Skelton (D-Missouri), and  John Adler (D-New Jersey).

2010 Election Predictions - Generic Congressional Vote 

(7/1 poll composite: 45.1% Republican, 42.7% Democrat – +2.4% Republican)
(7/1 poll composite: 44.1% Republican, 42.2% Democrat – +1.9% Republican)
(6/22 poll composite: 44% Republican, 42.2% Democrat – +1.8% Republican)

Recent polling has detected a noticeable trend towards those who plan to vote for a Republican for Congress this fall. It’s also worth noting that these polls are typically taken both of chronic and occasional voters and thus understate the more energized Republican vote; a recent poll conducted only of likely voters showed a 56-41% GOP preference for Congressional elections. To put this number in perspective, when the GOP recaptured both houses of Congress in 1994 for the first time since 1994, the GOP/Democratic vote for House candidates was 52-45%. If this 56% number were the actual GOP House vote on Election Day, we could easily see GOP gains in the 80 seat range, as our projections have suggested or some time.

In the next installment of this article (we are waiting for Congressional filing to close in New York at the close of business today), we will discuss upcoming primaries in August and September.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Biden discussed the array of tremendous problems impacting our area, but he provided no solutions or hope of relief. The Vice President refused to acknowledge that this crisis has been exacerbated by the incompetence of the federal government.

For example, there are 1,600 skimmers in the country, yet only a fraction is being deployed in the Gulf. President Obama told U.S. Senator George LeMieux (R-FL) that resources could not be diverted from other areas that might face future problems. Yet, we are at war here, this is an EMERGENCY!! There is no sense of urgency from Obama.

The President continues to abide by the Jones Act which prevents foreign ships from being used in the clean-up effort. This act was designed to promote domestic labor unions, but it is hampering our clean up effort. After Hurricane Katrina, President Bush waived this act to allow foreign countries to offer assistance. In this crisis, over thirty countries offered to send resources. In fact, the Netherlands, Great Britain, France and other countries have ships that can clean-up the oil, but those requests have been denied. Finally, this week, the State Department announced that offers of help from twelve nations were accepted, but this is too little, much too late.

While the government thwarts the clean-up by preventing foreign assistance, it also prevents local leaders from taking action. Key parts of a Louisiana dredging project have been stopped by the federal government because of environmental concerns. Yet, if this dredging is not allowed to continue, there may not be a coastal environment to save. In addition, the federal government has stopped a rock dam project near Grand Isle designed to protect valuable fisheries. According to Governor Bobby Jindal, “We need a greater sense of urgency, especially when it comes to the red tape, permits and bureaucracy,”

Based on 74 days of inaction, there seems to be a complete disregard for the plight of this area. If the administration truly cared about the economic well being of Louisiana, there would not be a six month moratorium on deep water drilling. In a conversation with Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph, President Obama claimed that laid off workers can collect unemployment benefits. Other administration officials claim that these workers can get a check from the BP escrow fund, but there is confusion about how that fund will be administered and who is eligible. More importantly, the hard working people of Louisiana do not want to rely on unemployment benefits or BP checks, they want to provide a good living for their families.

Many Louisiana workers will undoubtedly have to leave the area and follow the rigs to foreign countries. Brazil, the home of Petrobras, a state owned oil company financed by Democrat benefactor George Soros, will benefit handsomely from this moratorium. It is a shame that Brazil will profit at the expense of Americans. In Brazil, the environmental restrictions are less intense and there is no moratorium on deep water drilling. The country is open for business and is welcoming our departing oil industry.

The utopian views of the Obama administration are downright dangerous. The horrific problem will be made worse by the cap and trade legislation that the President is pushing in the U.S. Senate. By making fossil fuels the enemy, the President is making the state of Louisiana the enemy. In this ecological disaster his administration is not treating the people of Louisiana so poorly that it will be impossible to forget the insult. He is making President Bush’s Hurricane Katrina response seem downright Herculean.

Supposedly this is a war, but if we fought WWII this way, we would be speaking German today. The United States was a country that defeated the Axis powers, rebuilt Japan and Europe and saved the world from fascism. Today, we are a nation that is incapable of dealing with an oil spill in the Gulf and is unable to find methods of providing help to citizens in need. It is a sad testament to the decline of the United States of America and the pathetic leadership emanating from the White House today.

If Obama and Biden are going to play politics instead of helping, it is better if they stay away from the Gulf Coast so we will not have to divert resources to provide security and take responders away from critical missions. Let’s hope we see no more trips like Biden’s visit. It was not only a complete waste of time; it was also a perfect example of the administration’s response to this crisis: long on window dressing, short on results

Jeff Crouere is the Host of “Ringside Politics,” which airs at 7:30 p.m. Fri. and 10:00 p.m. Sun. on WLAE-TV 32, a PBS station, and 7 till 11 a.m. weekdays on WGSO 990 AM in New Orleans and the Northshore. He is the Political Analyst for WGNO-TV ABC26 and a Columnist for selected publications. For more information, visit his web site at RingsidePolitics.com. E-mail him at jeff@ringsidepolitics.com.

Is it any surprise that the feds are attempting to bribe Nungesser to stay off TV?

Of course, Obama isn’t going to resign. Particularly not because conservatives ask him to. He might sic the IRS on folks who sign that petition, but he won’t step aside until he’s forced to.

And if Obama is sent packing before his term some sort of way, let’s not pretend things will get any better. After all, we’d get this guy in charge:

Elections Calendar

Latest News – Filing Deadlines

There will be no filing deadlines until May 25, when filing ends in Connecticut. After that will see a rapid succession of filing deadlines: Arizona (May 26), Colorado (May 27), Wyoming (May 28), and Alaska/Massachusetts (June 1). Once those deadlines have passed, the Congressional field will be set in 37 states. The last Congressional filing deadline will be Delaware’s, on July 30.

Latest News – Retirements

In the wake of the May 6 David Obey (D-Wisconsin) retirement, there has been no action on the Congressional retirement front. We are still keeping an eye on the possible retirement of 2006 freshman Michael Arcuri (D-New York), but we may not know anything definitive until July 15, which is the filing deadline for New York.

Latest News – Upcoming Primaries

Primaries held on May 18 will be worth watching, because they involve intraparty fights that political blog POLITICO described as “..the fullest measure yet of the depths of anti incumbent hostility…” Four states will be holding primaries on that day: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. We are watching the following three intraparty fights:

Pennsylvania

When 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic party last year, it was due to disastrous poll results showing him significantly trailing the same Republican he defeated in 2004 with 51% of the vote. And in that race, his victory was clinched by endorsements from former President Bush and former Senate colleague Rick Santorum.

The problem with Specter’s switch, however, was his reputation as an opportunist, which was bought front and center to the voters when he admitted at the time of the switch that “My change in party will allow me to be re-elected.” So despite the nearly unified support of Washington and Pennsylvania Democrats, his past and present conduct has created a high level of discomfort among rank and file Pennsylvania Democrats that Congressman Joe Sestak has exploited. TV footage showing Senator Specter with George W. Bush and Sarah Palin was the beginning of the playing of the “Republican card.” Then there were the Republican votes Senator Specter has cast over the past 30 years. And his twice referring to a local Democratic group as the “Allegheny County Republicans.”

Senator Specter’s line of defense, in addition to establishment support, has been to reiterate the benefits of his seniority and to argue that he is more electable than his opponent. However, none of these three lines of defense are likely to gather much traction in an anti incumbent year like this one. Though Specter maintained single digit leads in the polls before Sestak “played the Republican card”, recent tracking polls have shown the race a dead heat, with Sestak actually leading in several polls.

Another race that may be worth watching in Pennsylvania: up in Northeast Pennsylvania coal country, 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski was narrowly re-elected in 2008 with 52% of the vote in a district that gave Barack Obama 57% of the vote. This year, he has primary opposition from a local county commissioner. In addition to a voting record that has been mostly in line with the wishes of the Democratic leadership, Rep Kanjorski voted for TARP, and has taken some heat with the local Catholic community for his votes for healthcare reform. In the wake of Congressman Mollohan’s defeat in West Virginia, Kanjorski can’t feel entirely safe, and it’s worth noting that he didn’t release the results of a poll he commissioned.

Arkansas

In Arkansas, 12 year Senate Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln’s problem, in the eyes of Democratic activists, is twofold. First, she opposed “card check” legislation sought by organized labor. She also opposed the “public option” as part of healthcare reform, and for these stances, she received opposition from Lt Governor Bill Halter. Though Senator Lincoln has consistently led in the polls, she has remained beneath 50%., and a third candidate in the race may pull enough votes away to put the race into a runoff.

Kentucky

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the initial Republican favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has the staunch support of fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. That support, however, has become a liability in an anti Washington year. His opponent is Rand Paul, an eye doctor who also happens to be the son of Presidential candidate Ron Paul. He also has the attention of conservative groups like the Club for Growth, various Tea Parties, and grassroots conservative groups. Dr Paul currently leads by double digits in the polls (a recent poill showed him up 49-33%); the question is how this political novice with his more libertarian views will fare against significant Democratic opposition this fall.

Latest News – Upcoming Special Elections

While the primaries being held next week will be a yardstick for the strength of anti Washington sentiment amongs primary voters of either party, two vacated Democratic held House seats will also be a barometer of current voter attitudes.

Pennsylvania

In Southwest Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns are locked into a tight battle in the only district in America to vote for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 then for Republican John McCain in 2008. While Mark Critz is denying his liberalism and reiterating his opposition to healthcare, he has brought in Vice President Joe Biden to campaign for him. He has also invoked the pork barreling ability of his former boss, the late Congressman John Murtha. Meanwhile, Republican Tim Burns is basing his campaign on opposition to the status quo in general and healthcare reform in particular. Though different polls tell a different story as to who’s ahead, a recent poll showed Burns with a 49-40% lead among those most interested in the election. And President Obama’s unpopularity in the district helps as well. Burns’ problem is that the special election is held on the day as contested statewide Democratic primaries. And the legacy of appropriations brought to the district by the late Rep Murtha is something that may or may not work in the Democrats favor this year in this district.

Hawaii

Over in Hawaii, a “winner take all” mail in election us now in progress and will culminate on May 22 between a Republican against two significant Democratic opponents. One of the Democrats is former Congressman Ed Case, a white male who once represented the other Congressional district and is supported by pillars of the establishment like the Washington Democratic political establishment, the Blue Dog Democrats, and both major newspapers in Honolulu. The other Democrat is Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who is an Asian-American legislator with staunch support of the Hawaii Democratic establishment and local unions. Early on, the Washington Democratic political establishment attempted to get one of the candidates to drop out but were unsuccessful, and have recently pulled out of the special election race because “local Democrats were unable to work out their differences.”

Some of those differences are personal: in 2006, then Rep. Case challenged an incumbent Democratic Senator who was 82 years old at the time. Case lost that race 55-45%, and in the process made an enemy of the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, who not only has 48 years’ seniority, but has significant influence with Hawaii voters and chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. Senator Inouye has not only supported Hanaabusa, but has gotten involved personally in the campaign and has held multiple fundraisers for her.

The Democratic infighting has clearly benefitted the lone Republican in the race, Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou, but Djou has attractive qualities of his own and has adequate Republican funding. Djou has over time seen his lead expand in the polls and a recent survey sponsored by Aloha Vote  shows Djou in the lead with 40%. More significantly, among the poll respondents who said they have already voted, Djou leads with 45%. As of today, the state elections spokesman has indicated that 35% of voters have turned in their ballots – the deadline is 6PM May 22.

Meanwhile, in upstate New York, the House seat vacated in early March by Democrat Eric Massa has finally had an election date set by its Democratic Governor. The special election, however, will be held in November, so voters going to the polls will be voting twice; once to fill the unexpired term, and once for the full two year term.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.