Primary and Filing Status

On the primary front, it has been relatively quiet this month. The Alabama runoff has been the only election held since June 22, and it provided yet another example of voters (in this case, in the Republican runoff for governor) choosing someone other than the preferred candidate of the local political establishment, by an unambiguous 56-44% margin.

There has been more action, however, with Congressional/gubernatorial filings; in the past week, filing has concluded in Maryland, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and New York, for a total of 48 states (all but Delaware and Hawaii have concluded their congressional qualifying). Thus far, 37 House members (31 Republicans and 6 Democrats) will not have major party opposition; this list expanded by two when after the close of Louisiana’s qualifying, Democrats decided not to compete for the seats held by Rodney Alexander (R-Quitman) and Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette). (7/18 Editor’s updates: (1) As of press time, candidate filing has concluded in New York, but a finalized list of candidates is not yet available until sometime before August 9, according to their Board Of Election. We currently believe that four New York City Democrats will have no Republican opposition, and once we have the final list, we will revise the paragraph above; (2) We had incorrect dates for filing deadlines for Minnesota and Vermont, and in fact, their filing deadlines have passed)

While Congressional qualifying concludes, the only other electoral action this month will be the Georgia primary on July 20 and the Oklahoma primary on July 27. We are watching two races in Georgia - the governor’s race and a U.S. House race in the suburbs of Atlanta.

On the Democratic side of the governor’s race, we have yet another example (in addition to California, Iowa, Maryland, and Oregon) of a former governor wanting his old job back. Democrat Roy Barnes was defeated by a Republican when he ran for re-election in 2002 (incidentally, the victor was the first and only Republican to win that office since Reconstruction), and is seeking a comeback now that the Republican is term-limited. While he’s expected to win the Democratic primary easily, the more interesting race is the Republican primary. With this being an open seat race, a crowded field of seven candidates is seeking the nomination. What makes this race interesting is that it is yet another test of the power of the Sarah Palin endorsement, as she has thrown her support behind Secretary of State Karen Handel, who leads in a recent poll with 32%.

We are also watching a House race in the eastern suburbs of Atlanta. This majority black district has seen a series of contested Democratic primaries since 2002, and was the district that twice rejected former Congresswoman (and firebrand) Cynthia McKinney. The person who defeated her in 2006, Hank Johnson, is now in some political trouble himself: his two primary opponents have made hay over recent remarks he made in a committee hearing asserting that “…relocating Navy personnel to Guam would cause the small island to ‘become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize’…” . As a result, the picture they are painting to Democratic primary voters in that district is that he is “aloof and out of touch”, and that he “runs his campaign by press releases.”

Shortly after the Georgia and Oklahoma primaries, Congressional qualifying concludes in Delaware on July 30, and contested primaries return with a vengeance, starting on August 3. Throughout the month of August, 14 states (including Louisiana’s August 28 Congressional party primaries) will be holding primaries, and we have summarized those races below (7/18 Editor’s note: We have found out that Minnesota and Vermont have their primaries in August and not on 9/14, as we originally thought):

August 3: Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri – We are focusing on the Republican primary for Senate in Kansas. While throughout the election cycle, “political establishment” candidates have suffered defeat after defeat, Bill Clinton and Sarah Palin have been more successful in their endorsements whenever they weigh in on a race. And in Kansas, two Republican Congressmen are seeking the nomination for this open seat, and Sarah Palin has endorsed Todd Tiahrt, whose endorsement list is a “who’s who” of conservatives: Sean Hannity, Steve Forbes, the Tea Party Express, and Focus On the Family.

August 5: Tennessee: While the Kansas primary will be a test of the power of Sarah Palin’s endorsement, we are following a Democratic House primary in Memphis, Tennessee to assess how viable the use of the “race card” still is in black majority districts. In this situation, two-term incumbent Steve Cohen is a white liberal representing an inner city district that voted 78-22% for Barack Obama. His holding this seat for two terms has ruffled the feathers of the local black political establishment, so pugnacious former Mayor Willie Herenton (who is black) is challenging Cohen in the primary. Yet in this contest, the racial overtones have been counteracted by endorsements Rep. Cohen has received from both members of the Congressional Black Caucus and of President Obama.

August 10: Colorado, Connecticut, and Minnesota: The Colorado Senate race features contested Democratic and Republican primaries. The Democratic primary is an interesting proxy battle between President Obama and former President Clinton. This senate seat initially became vacant at the start of the Obama administration when former Senator Ken Salazar was appointed Secretary of the Interior. To fill the vacancy, Colorado’s Democratic governor appointed Michael Bennet, who was at the time the superintendent of Denver’s public schools. Though Bennet has compiled a generally liberal record and has the strong support of the Democratic establishment (including President Obama), some local politicians like former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff felt slighted, and Romanoff is challenging Bennet in the primary with the endorsement of former President Clinton.  This “national vs local establishment” subtext to this race seems similar to the Specter/Sestak race in Pennsylvania, except that Bennet has always been a Democrat who has worked within the political system, and he has (unsurprisingly) led in the polls throughout the campaign.

On the Republican side, the Colorado Senate primary is, like Kentucky and Nevada, another test of the strength of the Tea Party movement in Republican primaries. DA Ken Buck is running with Tea Party support. His main opponent is Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, who is viewed as more of an establishment favorite.

August 17:Washington and Wyoming: In Washington, the GOP scored a recruiting coup when former state senator (and two time gubernatorial candidate) Dino Rossi agreed to run against three term incumbent Patty Murray, the “Mom in tennis shoes.” However, local Tea Partiers are not enthusiastic about his candidacy, and have rallied behind former Washington Redskins tight end Clint Didier. Didier also claims the endorsements of Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, so in a sense, this race is also a test of the power of the Palin endorsement. Washington State, however, is a more hospitable environment for political moderates and/or moderate Republicans, so we believe that Rossi will survive the primary and become the Republican challenger to Senator Murray.

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, and Vermont: In Alaska, Sarah Palin (and Tea Partiers, for that matter)  is supporting the insurgent candidacy of attorney Joe Miller against eight year incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary. There is a personal aspect to this endorsement: former Senator Frank Murkowski (the incumbent senator’s father) was elected Governor in 2002 and promptly appointed his daughter to the seat. This appointment proved to be bad politics for both father and daughter. While Lisa was barely elected to a full term in a year George W. Bush was carrying Alaska with over 60% of the vote, Governor Murkowski was politically humiliated in his 2006 re-election bid. Not only was he defeated in the Republican primary by Sarah Palin, but he came in third place.

The Palin endorsement also is playing itself out in Arizona as well, although this time, Sarah Palin is endorsing the incumbent. In the Republican Senate primary, four term incumbent John McCain has stiff opposition from sportscaster/former Congressman J.D. Hayworth, and Hayworth’s candidacy is an outlet for Arizona Republicans who’ve felt that over the years McCain is not conservative enough. There is a very simple reason for Palin endorsing the incumbent: simple gratitude for McCain’s making her his running mate in his unsuccessful 2008 Presidential candidacy. Also on the ballot is the gubernatorial primary, which was effectively settled on the Republican side when formerly embattled incumbent Jan Brewer decided to enforce federal immigration laws on her own and has since attained hero status with conservatives across the country and in Arizona.

For months, the Republican primary for an open Senate seat in Florida was a marquee event, especially after Governor Charlie Crist saw his poll numbers steadily decline after embracing President Obama during a 2009 visit to the state. When he decided to change parties and run as an Independent (thus bypassing any party primaries), former House Speaker Marco Rubio effectively became the Republican nominee. The race took another twist on the Democratic side, however, when presumptive nominee, Kendrick Meek (a black Congressman from Miami) got a primary challenge from controversial billionaire Jeff Greene. This has been a hard fought 3 way race for several months now, and will continue to be competitive after the primary.

August 28: Louisiana Congressional Party Primaries: This is the last year that Louisiana will hold party primaries for Congressional races (this practice started with the 2008 election cycle and has never been very popular with voters comfortable with Louisiana’s open primaries). There are several races worth following, however. Keep in mind that only Republicans can vote in Republican Congressional primaries, while Democrats and/or unaffiliated voters can vote in Democratic Congressional primaries:

Senate – While both David Vitter and Charlie Melancon face two opponents each in their respective party primaries, we are most interested in the percent of the vote in each parish that Senator Vitter’s challengers will receive, since that vote represents the potential defections Senator Vitter may face in November to any of the 10 independent candidates running. What makes the Republican primary race especially interesting is the last minute entry of former Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor; his candidacy was borne out of disgust at Senator Vitter’s prior conduct with a prostitute, as well as assault charges facing one of his aides.

House – There are also several Congressional  primaries we are watching: (1) in New Orleans, can the Democrats unite behind a single challenger to vulnerable Republican freshman “Joseph” Cao, or will they be pushed into a runoff, thus giving Cao an additional month to campaign and raise money ?; (2) in New Iberia/Houma/Chalmette, three Republicans are seeking Democrat Charlie Melancon’s vacated House seat. Will the financial firepower of attorneys Jeff Landry and Hunt Downer put them in the runoff against each other, or can political newcomer Kristian Magar use his grassroots support to pull off an upset by making it into the runoff ?;(3) Three term incumbent Rodney Alexander is facing a primary opponent this year who is questioning his credibility as a conservative. Rep. Alexander similarly faced a more conservative primary challenger in 2008, and whipped him 90-10%. Will the challenger (Todd Slavant), with his Tea Party affiliations, make it a more competitive race in this anti incumbent year?

After the gauntlet of August primaries, all will be quiet on the political front until “Super Tuesday II” on September 14, when 7 states hold their primaries on that day. “Super Tuesday II” pretty much concludes primary season nationally, although Hawaii has a primary on September 18, and on October 2, Louisiana will have (if necessary) party runoffs for Congress, as well as “open primary” races for statewide (Lt Governor, PSC) and local (judge, school board, etc) races. And if no one in those local/statewide races receives a majority, they will have to compete in a runoff held on the same day as the midterm elections.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Today was a bad day to be an incumbent or an “establishment” candidate. The bad news started yesterday, when the New York Times revealed that Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) fabricated his Vietman experience in speeches with voters (in fact, he received multiple deferments). Suddenly an open seat race thought to be safe for the Democrats seemed to be more competitive, although it’s worth noting that polling taken before the misstatements were revealed showed Blumenthal’s numbers had declined to 52%. After the bombshell, Blumenthal’s poll leads tightened further: against three possible GOP opponents, his poll numbers ranged from 48-45% to 53-37%.

Several hours later, 16 year incumbent Mark Souder (R-Indiana) abruptly resigned after admitting he had an affair with a female staffer. We had mentioned before that in the face of tough primary competition (he survived the GOP primary with less than 50% of the vote), he had decided that this would be his last term. The GOP will now have to select a replacement nominee.

Later in the day, primaries proved to be unfriendly to establishment/incumbent candidates, as a third incumbent was defeated tonight, and a fourth incumbent is forced into a runoff amidst a weak primary showing. Below is a recap of the results:

Kentucky

Last year, the Republicans dreaded the prospect of defending the seat of 77 year old incumbent Jim Bunning; in the face of George Bush’s 60-40% victory in Kentucky in 2004, Bunning was re-elected with an anemic 51% of the vote after noting that his Democratic opponent “looked like one of Saddam Hussein’s sons.” Pressure was soon put not only on Senator Bunning, but on potential contributors, and Senator Bunning decided against running for re-election. Thanks to Senator McConnell, Bunning’s colleague and Senate Minority Leader, the GOP establishment had a candidate waiting in the wings: Secretary of State Trey Grayson. There was only one problem: Ron Paul’s son, Dr Rand Paul, wanted to run as well. And as voter discontent against the Democatic Congress steadily increased, Rand Paul slowly but surely started to assemble a coalition of Tea Party activists, Christian conservatives, libertarians who supported Ron Paul’s Presidential campaign, and Sarah Palin. This grassroots juggernaut eventually enabled Dr Paul not only to build a lead in the polls, but he ended up winning by a landslide 59-35% margin, carrying all but about a dozen of Kentucky’s 120 counties. He faces Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who eked out a 44-43% win in the Democratic primary.

Pennsylvania

When Arlen Specter switched parties last year due to his frank admission that “My change in party will allow me to be re-elected”, the Democratic establishment in Washington and Pennsylvania went out of their way to support his 2010 re-election bid. There was only one problem: two term Congressman Joe Sestak was unwilling to step aside. Plus, many rank and file Democrats never warmed up to the Democratic party’s newest member. However, Sestak trailed in the polls until he ran TV footage showing Senator Specter with George W. Bush and Sarah Palin. He also brought up Republican votes Senator Specter had cast over the past 30 years. And Senator Specter further compounded his credibility gap by his twice referring to a local Democratic group as the “Allegheny County Republicans.” Though Senator Specter tried to use his seniority and the “electabilityargument” to bolster his chances. those appeals fell flat in an anti incumbent year, and in the end, even President Obama declined to make an 11th hour appearance on Specter’s behalf. Rep Sestak went on to defeat Senator Specter 54-46% and now faces former Congressman Pat Toomey in the general election. Interestingly, Toomey held Specter to a 51-49% victory in the Republican primary, and that was in the face of unified local, state, and national GOP party support for Specter in that race.

Democratic incumbents were a little more fortunate in two compettive districts, as Tim Holden (who angered liberal activists in his 51% McCain district with his votes against healthcare reform and cap and trade) defeated a libeal opponent with 65% of the vote. 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who was one of a few Democrats in 2008 who actually ran behind Barack Obama in his district, survived his primary against an underfunded opponent with 49% of the vote. He will face the same Republican he narrowly defeated in 2008 with 52% of the vote.

Meanwhile, Republican hopes to pick up an open seat in a blue collar area were dashed when former Murtha Congressional aide Mark Critz ran as a conservative pro life, pro gun, anti healthcare reform Democrat. He defeated his Republican opponent by a 53-45% margin in a historically Democratic district that has been steadily moving towards the Republicans in recent years.

Arkansas

The national anti-establishment mood also affected the Democratic primary in Arkansas, where labor and progressive groups coalesced behind Lt Governor Bill Halter. There was also a third candidate in the race, conservative Democrat D.C. Morrison. Despite 18  years of Congressional seniority (6 years in the House and 12 years in the Senate), Senator Lincoln only barely won her primary 45-43% over Lt Governor Halter, which means that her poltiical fate may be decided in the June 8 Democratic runoff. Republicans had a crowded 5 way primary, but Congressman John Boozman has won with 53% of the vote and thus will be the Republican nominee without the need for a runoff.

Conclusion

Tonight’s returns clearly showed an anti incumbent bias, but Democrats who distance themselves from the national party like Mark Critz did in Pennsylvania can survive. And, ironically, with 39 more states yet to hold primaries (plus the Arkansas/North Carolina runoffs), the Democrats’ best hope for survival may be to support as many anti-establishment newcomers as possible and/or give them freedom to declare their independence from Nancy Pelosi and/or Harry Reid.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Scorecard

Elections Calendar

Latest News – Filing Deadlines

There will be no filing deadlines until May 25, when filing ends in Connecticut. After that will see a rapid succession of filing deadlines: Arizona (May 26), Colorado (May 27), Wyoming (May 28), and Alaska/Massachusetts (June 1). Once those deadlines have passed, the Congressional field will be set in 37 states. The last Congressional filing deadline will be Delaware’s, on July 30.

Latest News – Retirements

In the wake of the May 6 David Obey (D-Wisconsin) retirement, there has been no action on the Congressional retirement front. We are still keeping an eye on the possible retirement of 2006 freshman Michael Arcuri (D-New York), but we may not know anything definitive until July 15, which is the filing deadline for New York.

Latest News – Upcoming Primaries

Primaries held on May 18 will be worth watching, because they involve intraparty fights that political blog POLITICO described as “..the fullest measure yet of the depths of anti incumbent hostility…” Four states will be holding primaries on that day: Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. We are watching the following three intraparty fights:

Pennsylvania

When 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic party last year, it was due to disastrous poll results showing him significantly trailing the same Republican he defeated in 2004 with 51% of the vote. And in that race, his victory was clinched by endorsements from former President Bush and former Senate colleague Rick Santorum.

The problem with Specter’s switch, however, was his reputation as an opportunist, which was bought front and center to the voters when he admitted at the time of the switch that “My change in party will allow me to be re-elected.” So despite the nearly unified support of Washington and Pennsylvania Democrats, his past and present conduct has created a high level of discomfort among rank and file Pennsylvania Democrats that Congressman Joe Sestak has exploited. TV footage showing Senator Specter with George W. Bush and Sarah Palin was the beginning of the playing of the “Republican card.” Then there were the Republican votes Senator Specter has cast over the past 30 years. And his twice referring to a local Democratic group as the “Allegheny County Republicans.”

Senator Specter’s line of defense, in addition to establishment support, has been to reiterate the benefits of his seniority and to argue that he is more electable than his opponent. However, none of these three lines of defense are likely to gather much traction in an anti incumbent year like this one. Though Specter maintained single digit leads in the polls before Sestak “played the Republican card”, recent tracking polls have shown the race a dead heat, with Sestak actually leading in several polls.

Another race that may be worth watching in Pennsylvania: up in Northeast Pennsylvania coal country, 26 year incumbent Paul Kanjorski was narrowly re-elected in 2008 with 52% of the vote in a district that gave Barack Obama 57% of the vote. This year, he has primary opposition from a local county commissioner. In addition to a voting record that has been mostly in line with the wishes of the Democratic leadership, Rep Kanjorski voted for TARP, and has taken some heat with the local Catholic community for his votes for healthcare reform. In the wake of Congressman Mollohan’s defeat in West Virginia, Kanjorski can’t feel entirely safe, and it’s worth noting that he didn’t release the results of a poll he commissioned.

Arkansas

In Arkansas, 12 year Senate Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln’s problem, in the eyes of Democratic activists, is twofold. First, she opposed “card check” legislation sought by organized labor. She also opposed the “public option” as part of healthcare reform, and for these stances, she received opposition from Lt Governor Bill Halter. Though Senator Lincoln has consistently led in the polls, she has remained beneath 50%., and a third candidate in the race may pull enough votes away to put the race into a runoff.

Kentucky

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, the initial Republican favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has the staunch support of fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. That support, however, has become a liability in an anti Washington year. His opponent is Rand Paul, an eye doctor who also happens to be the son of Presidential candidate Ron Paul. He also has the attention of conservative groups like the Club for Growth, various Tea Parties, and grassroots conservative groups. Dr Paul currently leads by double digits in the polls (a recent poill showed him up 49-33%); the question is how this political novice with his more libertarian views will fare against significant Democratic opposition this fall.

Latest News – Upcoming Special Elections

While the primaries being held next week will be a yardstick for the strength of anti Washington sentiment amongs primary voters of either party, two vacated Democratic held House seats will also be a barometer of current voter attitudes.

Pennsylvania

In Southwest Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns are locked into a tight battle in the only district in America to vote for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 then for Republican John McCain in 2008. While Mark Critz is denying his liberalism and reiterating his opposition to healthcare, he has brought in Vice President Joe Biden to campaign for him. He has also invoked the pork barreling ability of his former boss, the late Congressman John Murtha. Meanwhile, Republican Tim Burns is basing his campaign on opposition to the status quo in general and healthcare reform in particular. Though different polls tell a different story as to who’s ahead, a recent poll showed Burns with a 49-40% lead among those most interested in the election. And President Obama’s unpopularity in the district helps as well. Burns’ problem is that the special election is held on the day as contested statewide Democratic primaries. And the legacy of appropriations brought to the district by the late Rep Murtha is something that may or may not work in the Democrats favor this year in this district.

Hawaii

Over in Hawaii, a “winner take all” mail in election us now in progress and will culminate on May 22 between a Republican against two significant Democratic opponents. One of the Democrats is former Congressman Ed Case, a white male who once represented the other Congressional district and is supported by pillars of the establishment like the Washington Democratic political establishment, the Blue Dog Democrats, and both major newspapers in Honolulu. The other Democrat is Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who is an Asian-American legislator with staunch support of the Hawaii Democratic establishment and local unions. Early on, the Washington Democratic political establishment attempted to get one of the candidates to drop out but were unsuccessful, and have recently pulled out of the special election race because “local Democrats were unable to work out their differences.”

Some of those differences are personal: in 2006, then Rep. Case challenged an incumbent Democratic Senator who was 82 years old at the time. Case lost that race 55-45%, and in the process made an enemy of the state’s other Senator, Daniel Inouye, who not only has 48 years’ seniority, but has significant influence with Hawaii voters and chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. Senator Inouye has not only supported Hanaabusa, but has gotten involved personally in the campaign and has held multiple fundraisers for her.

The Democratic infighting has clearly benefitted the lone Republican in the race, Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou, but Djou has attractive qualities of his own and has adequate Republican funding. Djou has over time seen his lead expand in the polls and a recent survey sponsored by Aloha Vote  shows Djou in the lead with 40%. More significantly, among the poll respondents who said they have already voted, Djou leads with 45%. As of today, the state elections spokesman has indicated that 35% of voters have turned in their ballots – the deadline is 6PM May 22.

Meanwhile, in upstate New York, the House seat vacated in early March by Democrat Eric Massa has finally had an election date set by its Democratic Governor. The special election, however, will be held in November, so voters going to the polls will be voting twice; once to fill the unexpired term, and once for the full two year term.

John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.

Thursday night, former Congressman J.C. Watts earned a round of applause at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference when he offered that “History is going to be kind to George W. Bush.”

History might be coming faster than anybody thought.

From Democrat-oriented Public Policy Polling, a hypothetical matchup between Bush and current president Barack Obama is almost even, with Obama holding a scant 48-46 edge.

Bush had atrocious approval ratings for his final few years in office, particularly because he lost a lot of support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. Those folks may not have liked him but they now say they would rather have him back than Obama. 87% of GOP voters now say they would prefer Bush, a number a good deal higher than Bush’s approval rating within his party toward the tail end of his Presidency. Democrats predictably go for Obama by an 86/10 margin, and independents lean toward him as well by a 49/37 spread.

These numbers suggest some peril for Democrats in making Bush a focus of their messaging this fall. A lot of folks who contributed to the former President’s low level of popularity now like Obama even less. Figuring out a way to make voters change their minds about the current President would be a much more effective strategy for Democrats than continuing to try to score points off the former one.

In PPP’s release on the poll, i’s noted that Obama still holds a 49-37 edge on the former president among independents, which though a relatively happy number represents significant erosion.

Obama’s troubles against hypothetical Republicans aren’t limited to those constitutionally barred from running against him. Rasmussen reports that Obama only beats Ron Paul by a 42-41 score, an indication that Paul’s small-government, libertarian message has a great deal of power when weighed against the president’s policies.

But while Paul’s message appears to be resonating, his candidacy isn’t all that strong. Paul’s favorable ratings among Republicans and Independents are 42 percent apiece, while only eight percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Independents give him strong favorable numbers.

The lessons from these two polls? First, while many may groan at the idea, fellow Hayride blogger Ryan Booth probably isn’t off his rocker for suggesting that Jeb Bush could be a viable candidate. The Bush name apparently isn’t as poisonous as media narratives might have people believe, and so long as Jeb could indicate some differences between how he’d govern and how his brother did he would have a chance against Obama. The fact that a candidate with negatives among the Republicans as high as Paul’s are could still come within the margin of error in a head-to-head with the president is also a plus for the former Florida governor.

The second lesson is that if you’re a prospective Republican candidate, the best thing you can do is attach yourself to as much of Paul’s program as you can stomach. Paul isn’t a particularly compelling speaker, he’s as old as the hills and he comes off as one of the loopier major political figures in the country in recent years. If he has better than 40 percent of the American people willing to support him over Obama it’s because America is looking for someone who will drain Washington of its money and power, end corporate bailouts and Fed machinations and embrace a libertarian philosophy of governance. Paul’s foreign policy ideas make Obama look like Ronald Reagan and they’re political poison, though as Mark Zelden notes today the time for an expansive foreign policy is not now. As such, it might be a good idea to split the difference between traditional Republican policy and Paul’s ideas by saying our allies will need to invest more in their own militaries, that border defense will be a higher priority than foreign adventures until the budget is balanced, and that stationing troops in places like Germany and South Korea might need a re-examination.

Either way, while it’s early to talk about the 2012 elections it’s clear that Obama is very beatable. A two-point advantage over Bush and a one-point lead over Paul means the president has a problem.

And continuing to blame the former president? That’s only going to make things worse.

…by one vote.

Mitt Romney’s total of 439 votes topped Ron Paul’s 438.

Each had 24 percent of the vote, while Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin each had 18 percent. Mike Huckabee was next with four percent, Mike Pence and Tim Pawlenty had three percent each, with Rick Santorum at two percent and Gary Johnson at one percent.

There were 1,806 votes cast.

The poll also asked respondents for their second-choice votes, and Gingrich was the winner with 339 votes to Palin’s 332. Romney came in third on second-choice votes with 242.

Continuously updated as the session commences:

David Vitter, quoting an old guy from Mamou he met this week: “I’ve been a Democrat all my life, but this president and this administration are radical, and they scare me.”

David Vitter: “I’ll take a TV personality over a community organizer every day.”

David Vitter: “The GOP is the vehicle for conservative governance, but Tea Party movement is the fuel for that vehicle.”

Rick Santorum: “Washington only listens in November.”

Rick Santorum: “In 2006 and 2008 conservatives didn’t fail America, conservatives failed conservatism.”

Rick Santorum: “We have opened our arms to the enemies of America.”

Rick Santorum: “It can’t just be about more government. Because WE were about more government.”

Rick Santorum: “America is not a country based on ethnic heritage. America is an ideal. You can be from Louisiana and go live in Italy for 50 years and you’ll never be an Italian. But when my grandfather came from Italy, he became an American.”

Rick Santorum: “Barack Obama wants to change who we want to be.”

Rick Santorum (on the possibility of a constitutional convention): “It’s not the Constitution that’s the problem. It’s the courts that are the problem.”

Steve Scalise: “You’re participating in the re-emergence of the Republican Party as the dominant political party in America.”

Steve Scalise: “What are we doing with all these czars? We ought to be sacking these czars.”

Steve Scalise: “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose your job. Recovery is when Nancy Pelosi loses her job. Recovery starts in November.”

Steve Scalise: “We know just how fragile our Republic is right now.”

Mike Pence: “Republicans are back in the fight and back from the right.”

Mike Pence, in response to President Obama’s invitation to “go for it” in attempting to repeal Obamacare: “Mr. President, COUNT ON IT.”

Mike Pence: “We cannot rest, we cannot relent until we win back the American Congress for the American people.”

Mike Pence: “We need to campaign as conservatives. We don’t just need a Republican majority on Capitol Hill, we need a conservative majority on Capitol Hill.”

Mike Pence: “History teaches that weakness arouses evil.”

Mike Pence: “America stands with Israel.” The Ron Paul contingent proceeds to boo him, only to be shouted down.

Mike Pence: “Get government under control, get government out of the way, and America will come roaring back.”

Haley Barbour: “We know we’re here dealing with a man-made disaster.”

Haley Barbour: “We can’t wait until 2012 to start taking our country back.”

Haley Barbour: “In Washington, the idea that you could cut spending sends cold chills up their spines. Those of them who have spines, that is.”

Haley Barbour: “The American people know you can’t spend yourself rich.”

Haley Barbour, on Bart Stupak’s announcement that he won’t run: “I hope he said he’s sorry.”

Haley Barbour: “How do we win in 2010? Stick together.”

Haley Barbour: “You can’t elect Haley Barbour governor of Vermont.”

Haley Barbour: “I’m up here more as a former party chairman than as a governor.”

Herman Cain, on Jeanine Garafalo’s accusation that the Tea Party is a racist movement: “I had to go look in the mirror to see if I missed somethin.’”

Herman Cain: “We the people are still in charge of this country!”

Herman Cain: “In 2011, there might be a dark horse candidate you don’t know about.”

Bill Cassidy: “I tell people gastroenterology is very good preparation for Washington.”

Ron Paul: “If we didnt do anything else but elect people who would respect the constitution, we would get out of this mess in not time.”

Ron Paul: “If we Republicans were so committed to cutting spending, where were we when we had the chance?”

Ron Paul: “The reason why the American people have awoken…is because the country is broke and people in Washington won’t admit it.”

Ron Paul: “Remember the old days when our party platform said to get rid of the department of education?”

Ron Paul: “The Federal Reserve is more powerful than the president.”

Ron Paul: “There’s a revolution on college campuses….and they’re not looking for handouts, they’re looking for freedom.”

John Fleming (on a federally-funded study which paid college kids to drink malt liquor and smoke marijuana): “I think they would have done it for free.”

John Fleming: “When it comes to liberals in Congress, you cannot change minds. You can only change the people who represent us in Washington.”

Thad McCotter: “With the help of the Republicans in the south, we will all rise again!”

Michael Steele: “You can’t please everybody, but you can make them all mad at the same time.”

Michael Steele: “We live in a time when the Constitution has lost its sway over those who would govern us.”

Michael Steele: “Bye, bye, Stupak.”

Michael Steele: “We are not in a nanny-state induced coma like Europe.”

Michael Steele: “I have made mistakes.”

Michael Steele: “If you don’t Tweet, learn how. Call me – I’ll help you.”

Michael Steele: “It’s never too late in America.”

Among the stories slithering through the swamp today…

PALIN PICKS PAUL: Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul, the son of Texas Congressman, 2008 presidential candidate and libertarian gadfly Ron Paul who is running for the seat Republican Jim Bunning is vacating in November, picked up an endorsement from Sarah Palin yesterday. Paul’s campaign also announced it had received a substantial contribution from Palin’s PAC. It definitely appears that Palin is building an alliance with the Ron/Rand Paul movement within the GOP, but to what purpose is still unclear.

Rand Paul isn’t considered as much of a “fringe” player as his father. Among the endorsements the surgeon has secured are Dick Armey, Freedom Works, National Tea Party Movement, Concerned Women for America, Gun Owners of America, Steve Forbes and RedState.com. The most recent poll in the Republican primary in Kentucky had Paul ahead of Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the “establishment” candidate, by a 44-25 margin. Rasmussen had Paul with an eight-point advantage over the likely Democrat nominee Jack Conway.

CAO TOP HOUSE FUNDRAISER: Louisiana 2nd District Congressman Joseph Cao was the most active of the state’s Congressional delegation from a fundraising standpoint, picking up over $247,000 in contributions in the fourth quarter as he attempts to hang on to the most improbably Republican seat in Congress this fall. Cao actually spent more than he took in during the quarter, as the Times-Picayune reports he engaged in a large-scale direct-mail campaign he expects to bear fruit in the early part of this year.

Cao’s announced Democrat challengers are state legislators Juan LaFonta and Cedric Richmond, who raised $119,000 and $154,000, respectively. Cao boasts $316,000 in cash on hand at present, while Richmond has $226,000 and LaFonta $65,000.

The state’s other Republican Congressmen are all currently unopposed, and are building sizable war chests. Sixth District Rep. Bill Cassidy is sitting on the largest money pile at $735,000, while Charles Boustany of the 7th District has $399,000 on hand. Steve Scalise has $218,000 in the 1st District, while John Fleming (4th) has $180,000 and Rodney Alexander (5th) has $105,000.

The 3rd District seat, currently held by Charlie Melancon but coming open due to Melancon’s Senate challenge to David Vitter, so far looks like it has a chance to remain in Democrat hands. Ravi Sangisetty, a 28-year old attorney, so far appears to be the only Democrat in the race and he’s raised a tidy sum of $224,000 so far. That outstrips the two announced Republican contenders to date, though Sangisetty announced for the seat back in August and has a head start on New Iberia attorney Jeff Landry, who announced in December and raised $96,000 (Landry has $116,000 in the bank) and state rep. Nickie Monica, who hasn’t begun fundraising yet.

VIRGINIA LEGES SAY YOU DON’T GOTTA: The Virginia state senate yesterday passed a bill declaring that its citizens cannot be forced to purchase health insurance, a direct shot across the bow to the President’s health-care legislation still languishing near death in Congress.

The bill passed by a 23-17 count, with five Democrats voting for it.

3.83 TRILLION, 2.15 MILLION: In the wake of the staggering budget figures announce by the Obama administration yesterday comes news that the federal payroll now contains 2.15 million employees.

Some 1.43 million of those are civilians, meaning the military only contains one-third of the federal work force. The figure does NOT include the U.S. Postal Service.

Fresh off a total inability to protect investors or the financial community from Bernie Madoff or the collapse of the housing bubble, the Securities and Exchange Commission has now taken on a new mission, one to which it seems better suited in the Age of Obama than its stated purpose of preventing fraud.

Today, the commission voted 3 to 2 in favor of a new requirement that companies disclosing their public filings include a statement on the environmental impact of their activities as they relate to climate change.

The specific requirement, as quoted by the Washington Post, demands that firms recount “the impact of climate change on their businesses — from new regulations or legislation they may face domestically or abroad to potential changes in economic trends or physical risks to a company.”

These new requirements are designed, according to Democrat Elisse B. Walters of the commission, to “improve the quality of disclosures filed by U.S. public companies for the benefit of investors.”

Republican commissioner Kathleen Casey had a more accurate understanding. “I can only conclude that the purpose of this release is to place the imprimatur of the commission on the agenda of the social and environmental policy lobby, an agenda that falls outside of our expertise and beyond our fundamental mission of investor protection,” she said.

Actions like these, which place undue, unwarranted and unwise burdens on companies which are already loaded down with an embarrassment of Byzantine governmental makework in return for the privilege of engaging in American commerce, call into question whether the SEC ought to exist at all. The commission only came into being in 1934 amid FDR’s New Deal, and its most recent disastrous failure to do anything about the Madoff fraud despite having information all the way back in 1992 that there was a problem led Texas Congressman and Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul to call for its abolition a year ago.

Paul isn’t always right, by any means, but he may well be this time. He points out, and he’s not alone in doing so, that the smartest people in the financial sector actually go to work in the financial sector – because they can make a lot of money in it. The second-tier people who don’t quite cut the mustard but have an interest in the field end up being the regulators. And the results are predictable; the Madoff situation is a perfect example of how the “B” players working for the government will only be able to take down the villains after a great deal of damage is done.

Meanwhile, the public is led to believe that, even though everyone deep down believes Wall Street is made up of crooks and liars, the SEC and its thousands of pages of legislative  say-so will protect us from the Ponzi schemers and con men. This is little more than sheep being led to the slaughter; the Madoffs and Allen Stanfords will always beat the Feds, at least for a little while, and by the time they’re finally stopped scads and oodles of unsophisticated investors will be separated from their gleanings.

A public armed with the wisdom that there are crooks out there is a far better regulator of thieves than a government commission of busybody do-gooders looking to advance the agenda of the Sierra Club or World Wildlife Fund so as to get invitations to swanky galas. State agencies working in concert with each other and/or the FBI are more than capable of prosecuting financial villains, and the industry itself, through the various exchanges dominating the markets, has its own motivations to stop fraud and theft.

No investor is better served by boilerplate pronouncements on carbon emissions from companies berated by the abovementioned do-gooders. No corporate bottom line is served by such a requirement. And no good argument is made for an SEC which has time enough on its hands to produce such harebrained, foolish ordinances as it spewed from its minutes this week.

by Nick Bouterie

From the Times-Picayune:

In an unusual alliance, conservative Sen. David Vitter is teaming with self-described socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders to block a vote on Ben Bernanke’s nomination for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Vitter, R-La., and Sanders, who is officially listed as an independent from Vermont, are joined by Sens. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., and Jim DeMint, R-S.C., in the move against Bernanke. All have said they won’t lift their holds until Senate leaders agree to establish congressional audits of the powerful monetary agency.

In opposing the Bernanke nomination, Vitter faulted Bernanke’s policies in trying to rescue troubled financial companies.

“Over the past year or so, the Fed has doled out several trillion dollars to any number of troubled institutions through a series of programs that were supposed to turn our economy around,” Vitter said. “These programs have worsened our economic crisis by making ‘too big to fail’ a permanent government policy and created further debt that will now be the burden of our children and grandchildren.”

At the very least, Vitter said, the Senate shouldn’t vote on Bernanke, who was first appointed by President George W. Bush, until a process is established for audits of the agency.

Senator Vitter, along with the other three Senators mentioned above, “gets it” on this issue, and they are standing up for U.S. taxpayers. Ben Bernake was one of the accomplices in the recent financial crisis by helping promote policies of “Too Big to Fail” and legislation that led to the vote-buying and blackmail that took place to pass the $700 billion financial bailout in 2008, now known as TARP.

Sen. Vitter has his own faults, but he was one of the few members of Congress and one of the few Republican legislators to stand up to his own party and colleagues and vote against the TARP boondoggle. It also appears he is going to be one of the few to demand accountability from Ben Bernanke and the policies he promoted since the Bush Administration.

Nick Bouterie is a resident of Acadia Parish