A previous Hayride analysis anticipates another Republican decade for Texas. And based on a conservative take on a recent CNN analysis, it’s looking like redistricting will favor red states in general.
“While the 2020 census won’t change anything for the upcoming election, it’s worth noting here that five of the six biggest seat-gainers were Trump states in 2016, and of the losers, Trump won three while Hillary won two,” wrote Matt Margolis for PJ Media. “Michigan and Pennsylvania, two of the losing states, may have been won by Trump, but have mostly voted Democrat in recent elections. But, overall, the advantage is clearly for Republicans based on these trends.” (Full analysis here.)
According to CNN’s Chris Cillizza: “The news is very good for the Southwest and South and not at all good for the industrial Midwest and Northeast. […] Texas is projected to be the biggest gainer post-2020, adding three more congressional districts due to massive population growth over the past decade.” (Full analysis here.)
The projected winners:
In addition to Texas’s three gains, Margolis noted Florida is expected to gain two seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon may likely each gain one congressional seat.