From the lineups of candidates for seats on the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, its potential for policy change from its present course is incremental for the next four years after 2024.
Only District 3 Republican Sandy Holloway will return unopposed. Three other districts will send another Republican, while two will produce a Democrat. As a Republican seems likely to win the governorship and that officer appoints three members, that would indicate a Republican majority regardless of the outcome of the two races where major party candidates will clash.
Although in both cases, a Republican newcomer seems likely to win, with each having an existing connection to state government. Current District 4 Republican incumbent Michael Melerine will defer for a state House of Representative contest, but his wife Republican Stacey Melerine will run in his stead. They may become the new political power couple in north Louisiana, given that District 5 Republican Ashley Ellis also will retire, leaving her husband independent Friday Ellis as mayor of Monroe the only elected official in the household.
Stacey Melerine should win, given the observed strength of Michael’s previous campaign that should transfer to her effort. The two are lawyers and share an agenda focusing on accountability and school choice. Opposing her is Democrat retired educator Emma Shepard, who ran in 2019 but dropped out, and Republican Paige Hoffpauir, a real estate agent.
Ashley Ellis has endorsed GOP state Rep. Lance Harris to succeed her, and Harris has sponsored a number of measures in the lower house on education also emphasizing accountability and school choice. He is a big favorite against Republican Toby Brazzel, an investment advisor and political newcomer.
The other partisan-contested race involves another GOP state representative, Paul Hollis with the endorsement of retiring Republican Jim Garvey in District 1 and also mirroring his accent on accountability and school choice. He also will be a heavy favorite, against Democrat Lauren Jewett, an educator who previously unsuccessfully ran for a Jefferson Parish School Board seat.
One internecine Republican contest occurs in District 6 with Ronnie Morris running for reelection. He squares off against Jodi Rollins, who has publicized the issue of cameras in schools and who will be a decided underdog.
The other happens in District 7 to succeed the retiring Republican Holly Boffy with three from the GOP competing. Former Lafayette Parish School Board member Erick Knezek with go up against education administrator Cathy Banks and businessman Kevin Berken who formerly ran unsuccessfully for state Senate, all of whom seem in tune with the current accountability/choice agenda of the BESE majority that is decidedly minus appointees of Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards. Knezek appears to have the edge by performing the most serious campaigning to date, according to campaign disclosures.
Both all-Democrat battles feature two-up races, but only one likely will be competitive. Incumbent Democrat Preston Castille has a distinct campaigning advantage over educator Dolores Cormier-Zenon in District 8.
District 2, however, looks to be closer. Educator Sharon Latten-Clark, with traditional and charter school experience will take on former unsuccessful Orleans Parish School Board candidate Eric Jones, who currently is a city appointee to its Industrial Development Board. He had been on a local charter school board until resigning in the wake of controversy over the treatment of struggling students. Whether his sharing a last name with popular outgoing member Kira Orange Jones will help his chances in an open question, but neither candidate probably will join BESE reformers as often as she did.
But when the dust settles, expect Republicans to control six of the eight elective seats. With projected GOP gubernatorial picks to join them, that would give the accountability and choice bloc a comfortable majority, boding well for Superintendent Cade Brumley to stay on if he wishes and setting the stage to recapture minor losses suffered through eight years of Edwards, such as diluting or reversing a recent decision to weaken graduation requirements.