If there was much doubt that state senator Blake Miguez will be jumping into next year’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, Miguez put it to rest on Saturday at the quarterly meeting of the Republican State Central Committee.
Here’s video of the eight-minute speech Miguez gave which more or less confirmed that he’s getting into the race…
This has the look of somebody running for the Senate next year. pic.twitter.com/HsIjUDmYHw
— Scott McKay (@TheHayride) January 13, 2025
We’ve talked about this a couple of times here at the Hayride – I’ve done a post on it and Michael Lunsford was even louder. It isn’t all that well-kept a secret that Miguez is going to announce soon, particularly with the rumor mill saying that Clay Higgins, who some believed would be the favorite in the race to knock Bill Cassidy out of his seat, has decided to stay put.
State treasurer John Fleming is already publicly running against Cassidy, and Fleming should be a formidable contender given his history as a founding member of the Freedom Caucus in Congress and his experience as a White House deputy chief of staff in the first Trump administration. Negatives for Fleming are that he’ll be 75 years old on Election Day next year and there’s a question whether a North Louisiana candidate can win a crowded race – though Fleming overcame that problem when he torched Scott McKnight in the 2023 race for his current job.
The fourth potential contender against Cassidy, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, is still weighing his options. Skrmetta would bring some electoral heft in New Orleans, some strong conservative credentials to rival those of Higgins, Fleming and Miguez and a Trump connection as well, having served as The Donald’s campaign chair in Louisiana multiple times.
The guess is that Trump won’t endorse in the race until the GOP primary runoff, and then he’ll endorse whoever is in it against Cassidy.
What are the chances that’s Miguez?
We wouldn’t be against it.
Blake is young, he’s telegenic, he’s got an immaculate record as a conservative and he’s coming off a state senate race in which the old-school political crowd raised and spent nearly a million dollars on behalf of his opponent Hugh Andre only to watch Miguez abjectly eviscerate him.
It isn’t that any of the other potential opponents wouldn’t show well against Cassidy, but we’ve heard a lot of buzz since that RSCC meeting from folks who were there essentially salivating over the possibility of showing off somebody young, aggressive, populist and revivalist opposite the sixty-something Cassidy with his swampy Washington ties and uniparty demeanor. Miguez is probably the furthest thing from Cassidy, who styles himself a conservative (not very effectively) for the voters back home and yet cultivates a reputation as an establishment “centrist” in Washington.
You got a taste of that at his RSCC speech. It’s a little brash, a little iconoclastic and a lot dissatisfied with the status quo.
And while Cassidy voted to impeach Trump and spent the next four years dismissing the chances of a second Trump term, Blake Miguez has no problem endorsing Trump and his agenda with a full throat.
But will there even be a race against Cassidy?
Over the weekend we did hear some buzz that Cassidy is being discussed as the next potential head of LSU’s medical school in New Orleans. Should that happen, it would vacate his Senate seat and open it up for Gov. Jeff Landry to appoint someone to fill out Cassidy’s term.
We can’t say whether there is anything to that. For the longest time Cassidy swore that two terms as a senator was all he would do. Then he decided he’d run again. If it looks like he can’t win, would he take a plum job like running the LSU medical school? We’d guess that he might, but that guess and eight bucks might get you a coffee at Starbucks.
Were it to happen, this could get very interesting.
What if Landry appointed himself to that Senate seat? If he did, it would make Billy Nungesser governor for more than two years. That would probably infuriate a lot of conservatives, and it could mean Fleming and Miguez and a host of others might be gunning for Landry in the 2026 GOP primary. It would also open up the possibility that Garret Graves would get into the race, and that could change the calculus.
For now, though, it looks pretty clear that Miguez is about to get into the Senate race. If and when he does, it’s going to intensify fairly quickly.