The panic is swirling around again.
In what appears to be a roll back to 2020, toilet paper is again flying off retailer shelves. Internet-distributed rumors are circulating that a major union strike could wad up the nation’s supply pipeline.
The great toilet paper 2.0 shortage has started at @Costco pic.twitter.com/7yGrT2NyCJ
— MrDefender (@Instegone) October 1, 2024
But the error in this kind of mass-thinking is double-ply: For starters, it’s a dock workers strike, not truckers or rail workers, and No. 2) 90% of toilet paper is domestically produced, with roughly 10% of the remainder flowing in from North America, and according to numerous sources.
That doesn’t stop the popular urge to stockpile and jump ahead of any mobs, after news broke that the U.S. Maritime Alliance (consisting of employers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (claiming to represent 45,000 dock workers across 36 ports) could not agree on a union contract deal early this week. Even port workers in Houston are striking. It’s a strike that, if not resolved soon, could affect the entire world as business groups call for White House intervention.
While that will definitely put a squeeze on the supply chain — everything from fresh produce, clothes, auto parts, and construction materials — some products are more dependent on trucking routes and rail lines and will not be as-affected, experts predict. An interruption of trucking and rail transport in 2020 — during draconian (and failed) local, state, and federal reactions to COVID-19 — put a strain on how most products get from point A to point B.
Hurricane Helene will most certainly cause some headaches with paper product distribution, primarily on the East Coast where the bulk of flooding took place. Entire state and interstate routes are shut down or completely decimated.
The synchronous timing of the strike and the hurricane may not be a perfect storm but the landfall will be felt, the Center Square reports. Wages of East and Gulf coast workers are currently $39 an hour after six years. The union is asking for a 77% pay raise increase over six years. It is also asking for more restrictions and bans on the automation of cranes and gates.
From the hip: A national run on toilet paper will be more due to consumer fears than the longshoremen strike or regionalized flooding. According to a Psychology Today piece on the 2020 paper frenzy, during which some rolls went on eBay for thousands of dollars per roll, it’s a “herding” instinct at play:
Some of our reasons for herding behind others are well-reasoned. Herding can be a type of heuristic: a decision-making short-cut that saves us time and cognitive effort. When other people’s choices might be a useful source of information, we use a herding heuristic and follow others because we believe that they know more than we do. When we see a long queue, outside a restaurant, for example, we may join that queue because we conclude that everyone else queuing knows how good the restaurant’s food is. Other times, our reasons for following others may be less well-reasoned, driven more by peer pressure and group-think that any sort of reasoned process — for example mob violence.
Whatever the psychological or sociological reason for that fear, it’s one that markets have adjusted to well in the recent past, increasing production since 2020 and even creating jobs as the Trump economy roared on despite many setbacks. America’s 7-billion-lbs.-per-year habit (which some say is a distinctly American thing) was met with an 845% demand hike in the COVID days. As elected leaders and unelected bureaucrats came to their senses — some learned the hard way and lost their seats — the market was increasingly able to keep up with a gradually waning demand.
Sadly, some retailers such as Texas-based H-E-B turned to China to see how the Communists handle such emergencies — complete with rationing and long lines, but without the requisite bread and vodka. Make no mistake: the Communist playbook is there on binders in shelves, waiting for the next supply crisis.
How retailers will stack up the TP in the days ahead remains to be seen. However, if we’re to learn anything from the 2020 crisis, “shop small” seems to be a good way forward. Small stores and dollar stores were among the first to replenish shelves when the big box purveyors were issuing out numbers for the Proletariat standing in line outdoors. Neighbors, churches, and community groups soon learned in 2020 that by sharing they successfully waited out short-term manic behavior.
Prices are going to go up and supplies of certain items are going to be interrupted in the days ahead — something we hope will come up during tonight’s Vice Presidential Debate.
Let’s send fear-based command-and-control economics back to the outhouse where it belongs, and remember the lessons we learned post-2020.