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Rasmussen: Cassidy Is Now Beating Landrieu

Rasmussen: Cassidy Is Now Beating Landrieu
January 30
11:40 2014

Here’s a fresh piece of trouble for Mary Landrieu

Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu runs slightly behind Republican challenger Bill Cassidy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Louisiana.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters finds Cassidy, a U.S. congressman, with 44% support to Landrieu’s 40%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The poll was done on Tuesday and Wednesday and the sample was 500 people.

Cassidy being up 44-40 on Landrieu really isn’t all that surprising – or at least Landrieu being at 40 isn’t all that surprising. She’s had trouble getting much above 40 in all but the most obviously slanted Democrat polls over the past six months and there isn’t a lot going on that would favor improvement in those numbers. So a slide from the 42-43-44 percent she was showing in the fall to 40 now is very foreseeable.

That Cassidy would be at 44 shows he may be picking up steam.

Rasmussen didn’t detect much support for Rob Maness or Paul Hollis, and the guess here is Maness would poll better than some portion of five percent if the election was today. But that said, it’s not a great survey for Maness – and Hollis’ media blitz following his announcement for the race doesn’t appear to have been effective.

Be that as it may, it’s hard to imagine Maness’ or Hollis’ voters would be Mary voters in a runoff; you can add that five percent to Cassidy’s total (or at least four of that five percent, if you want to hedge a little). That would put Cassidy at 48 or 49 percent in a runoff without even getting to the undecided vote – and if Mary is at 40 percent after 17 years in office, what would make anyone think she could get 85-90 percent of the undecideds she would need to win?

Short answer: that’s not going to happen.

Even shorter answer: she’s cooked if these numbers are even remotely accurate. Something sizable will have to happen for her to change the dynamic.

Landrieu is going to need to find a poll which has drastically different numbers than these, and soon – because if she doesn’t, it’s possible that the national Democrat money might start going someplace else and she might find herself at parity or even disadvantage to Cassidy before it’s done.

Which leaves us with some parting advice for Cassidy: do NOT sign on to the House GOP’s immigration plan, whatever it is. Leave that hot potato in the oven. All it can do is hurt your chances to become tainted with that when if you wait a year you can be part of something that might actually be good policy when Republicans hold both houses of Congress.

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8 Comments

  1. Ryan Booth
    Ryan Booth January 30, 17:57

    The only people who know that Maness exists are a few political activists. I don't know why he would poll at 5% right now. I think it would be lower than that. I know that he got 10% on an earlier poll, but that was just "none of the above" in my opinion. Hollis and other no-names on the ballot will actually get lots of the "none of the above" votes.

  2. Jim Talbot
    Jim Talbot January 30, 19:23

    Maness will get out of the race this Summer and endorse Cassidy.

  3. Michele Gaudin
    Michele Gaudin January 30, 19:59

    Mr Talbot is this your own prognostication ? As a Repub I am curious. Thx

  4. Jim Talbot
    Jim Talbot January 30, 20:12

    Yes, Mam, my prediction. It will be close and when he realizes he's got no shot, he can help bring Landrieu home by dropping out. Republicans like us will encourage him to do so. I know I will. Mary Landrieu has hurt us, and America long enough. Her ObamaCare support and her lack of early support for the Keystone pipeline alone shows how critical her Obama votes have been to America…

  5. Candy Maness
    Candy Maness January 31, 14:30

    Mr. Talbot,
    I don’t think you know my husband. Col. Rob Maness (USAF, ret) is a warrior who is fighting for his country. He has dedicated his life to service and Rob will NEVER give-up on Louisiana or America. He is in this race to win it! If you would like to know more about the kind of man Rob Maness is please check out his website http://www.RobManess.com or better yet come meet him he has put more than 40,000 miles on his truck so far and I am sure he will be in your area very soon!

  6. Al Green
    Al Green January 31, 17:11

    Candy Maness Ms Candy,no offense at all to your husband but only Cassidy can beat Mary and we want her out at all cost,she has TO GO..

  7. Michele Gaudin
    Michele Gaudin January 31, 17:33

    Landrieu is an Obama lapdog. But, Cassidy has voted for authoritarian, un-American laws just like Landrieu . Example: He ( and she) voted for the NDAA, giving the Imperial President the right to throw Americans in jail indefinitely, with no recourse to a judge , jury or lawyer. This is unconscionable and a deal breaker. I spoke with him about this, and followed up through various channels in hopes that his votes were from ignorance and the failure to read and understand the bill to no avail, even though I have Republican bona fides as a PEC member and RNC delegate. This is serious business . Maness appeals to people who are aware of the alarming escalation of the federal police state, and to the energized alive Republican constitutional base. Cassidy gives all appearances of being another Boehner, not a Cruz/ Paul/ Lee, with his willingness to deny Americans the most basic natural liberties guaranteed by the Constitution he swore to uphold.

  8. Jim Talbot
    Jim Talbot January 31, 23:11

    Mrs. Maness, please, no offense. I certainly applaud the Colonel, and any other American who offers themselves for public office. I do think that a newcomer to the bitterly dirty game of politics is in for a rude awakeninly when vying for a US Senate position in the state of Louisiana.

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