Starting today, we will periodically keep you updated on the goings ons of Election 2010 by providing you with a scoreboard that graphically displays relevant data related to the fall elections. We will also discuss various happenings as Election 2010 progresses.
Since it seems that events are occuring almost on a daily basis now, we will present you the following summary pieces of information so that you can assess how things are going with Election 2010:
(1) Update on which states have/have not completed their Congressional candidate filing;
(2) Updated count by party of House and Senate retirements; and
(3) Updated count of the current and projected House and Senate compostion by party;
- Though yesterday was the deadline for Congressional candidates to turn in their petitions as part of their qualifying for office, the last minute retirement of Democrat Evan Bayh, coupled with the fact that there no other Democrats with a sufficient number of signatures to qualify, means that the Indiana Democratic party, which is made up of 32 members, will select the Democratic nominee within a month or two;
- At the present time, three Democratic Congressman (Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth, and Joe Donnelly) are likely to be selected by the Indiana Democratic Party as the Senate nominee. However, each of the three candidates represents a marginal district. Which means that their selection would open up their House seat to possible GOP takeover in their absence. And then the Democratic party would have to select a substitute Democratic nominee for the vacated House seat. Either way, the Democrats in Indiana would have to face the voters with the accusation that they were “selected, not elected.”
- Ohio’s filing deadline is on February 18, while North Carolina has a filing deadline of February 26. At the time this post is being written, Democrats have not fielded a candidate in six House districts (five in Ohio and one in North Carolina), while Republicans have not yet fielded a candidate in an inner city district in Cleveland.
- We had briefly mentioned in this post that there is a “retirement/resignation watch” for several Democratic Senate incumbents over 70 years of age. To reiterate, that lists includes the following: (1) 86 year old Frank Lautenberg (Dem, New Jersey), who recently fell and was hospitalized – if his seat were to become vacant, the Republican Governor could appoint a Republican in his place; (2) 92 year old Robert Byrd (Dem, West Virginia); (3) 73 year old Barbara Mikulski (Dem, Maryland) was recently the subject of an Internet rumor of her impending retirement; and (4) 85 year old Daniel Inouye (Dem, Hawaii) has squashed retirement rumors so far, but at his age, they can’t be discounted entirely. Especially since Hawaii’s outgoing Governor Linda Lingle is a Republican and would be a formidable candidate.
John is a political consultant and blogger with JMC Enterprises with expertise in poll sample development and analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy and demographic consulting, among other things. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.