With Richard Blumenthal’s collapse in Connecticut and with word leaking of Dino Rossi’s impending announcement that he will challenge Patty Murray for the U.S. Senate seat in Washington State, the GOP now has eleven clear takeover opportunities this fall. Winning ten of them would flip the U.S. Senate back to the GOP. The most recent poll in this race, by Rasmussen, shows Murray leading Rossi 48% to 46%. If I were to rank the states most likely to flip red, I’d come up with:
- North Dakota
- Delaware
- Arkansas
- Indiana
- Nevada
- Connecticut
- Illinois
- Pennsylvania
- Colorado
- Washington
- California
Of course, Republicans will have to hold competitive seats in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire, but we should be favored in all of those except Ohio (which is probably a true tossup at this point). We could also see a race surprisingly tighten in Wisconsin, New York, or Oregon, though the likelihood of winning any of those races currently seems remote.
Altogether, I would still have to give the Democrats 2 to 1 odds of retaining the Senate, but I probably would have given them 8 to 1 odds two weeks ago.
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