New Senate Race Poll: Melancon Leads Vitter 43-33!

Among Democrats, that is.

In the overall electorate, Melancon is getting his brains beat in by a 51-31 count.

The poll, conducted by Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling firm, asked 1,030 random Louisiana registered voters several questions about Louisiana politics and the Gulf oil spill from Thursday to Sunday. It claims a three percent margin of error.

Among the poll’s findings:

Gov. Bobby Jindal gets high marks for his handling of the spill. Some 66 percent of those polled say they approve of his handling of it, against 21 percent disapproval. While Jindal’s support is particularly strong among Republicans (85-9), he’s doing very well with independents (63-24) and even Democrats (56-27) as well. Jindal even has a positive number among the state’s black voters (39-33). White voters give him a thumbs-up by a 74-17 count.

But President Obama is not so well-received. Obama would struggle to get elected dog-catcher in this state based on what Louisiana voters think of his performance. His overall spill approval rating is 60-31 on the disapproval side; that number is an overwhelming 84-9 figure indicating Republican disgust, while independents disapprove by a 60-30 margin and even the state’s Democrats are split 45-45 on his performance. The state’s black voters are the outlier; Obama boasts a 79-9 approval margin from that voting segment.

The Obamoratorium is probably the largest driver of the president’s high disapproval numbers. Even in the face of the Gulf oil spill, Louisianians want more offshore oil exploration, not less. By a 72-15 count respondents said they want more drilling. White voters favor increased drilling by an 83-11 count, blacks favor it by a 36-27 score, Republicans by 85-10, independents 75-15 and Democrats 63-18. No constituency group identified in the poll opposes increased exploration, putting the state and the president in contretemps.

In the Senate race, Vitter’s 20-point lead over Melancon holds up in every identifiable group but Democrats and the black community. Vitter leads 55-29 among men, 48-33 among women, 64-22 among white voters, 83-8 among Republicans and 50-38 among independents. Melancon has a 60-10 advantage in the black community and a 43-33 margin among Democrats.

Magellan’s poll numbers on the Senate race largely echo, if perhaps intensify, a pair of polls on the race in April. An April 23 Southern Media Opinion Research poll found Vitter with a 49-31 lead, and an April 7 Rasmussen survey had him in a 52-36 driver’s seat.



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