Poll: Perry With Big Lead In Louisiana

We just got a release this morning of a poll by Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, and it offers some sorta-kinda-not really surprising numbers on the 2012 presidential race in Louisiana.

The not surprising result: Rick Perry has a 14-point lead over the field.

Some of the results under the top line are a little more interesting.

The numbers:

  • Rick Perry – 30%
  • Michele Bachmann – 16%
  • Mitt Romney – 15%
  • Newt Gingrich – 9%
  • Ron Paul – 6%
  • Herman Cain – 2%
  • Jon Huntsman – 2%
  • Rick Santorum – 1%
  • Undecided/Won’t Answer – 19%

The methodology:

WPA selected a random sample of 601 likely voters. The overall sample includes a sub-sample of 183 registered Republicans who were asked the 2012 GOP primary ballot. Respondents were screened to ensure that they were neither a member of the news media, a public relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender, age, ethnicity, political party, and region. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results.

Respondents were contacted by phone via a live telephone operator interview August 14-16, 2011.  The sub sample has a size of 183 registered Republican voters.  The margin of error for the Republican sub-sample is equal to ±7.2% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Those are some really rough numbers for Cain, who had put a decent organization together in the state but doesn’t look like he’s too competitive with that number. And Huntsman, who spammed the straw poll at RLC in June, finishing second, has a lot less support than the straw poll would have indicated. That’s also true of Ron Paul, though a six percent showing is only slightly on the low end of what he always seems to do in any poll.

A nine percent number for Gingrich in what’s admittedly a friendly state for him – we’re in the South, after all, and he’s a Tulane grad who spends a pretty good amount of time here – is an improvement of sorts.

But Perry coming from next door in Texas is an obvious leader of this field.

The crosstabs on the poll…



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