We don’t have a lot of statewide polls to work with, so anytime one comes out it’s worth covering.
And this one has different results from Bernie Pinsonat’s poll last week…
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,682 likely voters. The survey was conducted October 2nd through October 4th. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 1.9%. The study measures voter opinion among a wide array of issues and election contests, including the upcoming Presidential, 2014 U.S. Senate and 2015 Gubernatorial matchups.
The survey finds Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 22 points (59% Romney/36% Obama/5% undecided). The presidential ballot tracks very closely to the 2008 presidential election results (58.6% McCain/39.9% Obama).
Also tested was the upcoming 2014 U.S. Senate race. The survey finds that over 50% of respondents would prefer a new candidate over current U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu. Only 32.7% of those questioned would definitely vote to reelect Louisiana’s senior Senator.
In a hypothetical matchup for the 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial contest, U.S. Senator David Vitter leads a field of six potential candidates. Vitter and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu were the only tested candidates to receive more than ten percent support. Additionally in a head-to-head matchup, Vitter leads Landrieu by over 5 percentage points (45.2% Vitter/39.8% Landrieu/15% Undecided).
Pinsonat’s poll had Romney ahead of Obama 45-39, which gave many a nice guffaw – and called into question some of his other numbers, like for example his 68 percent who said the state’s $25 billion budget has been “cut enough.” Pinsonat’s poll also said Mary Landrieu was the state’s most popular public official. Since then there have been quite a few people who have questioned whether he’s accurate enough to pay attention to anymore.
We’ll leave that alone. We’ll say that while Magellan’s survey seems to be very Vitter-friendly, and it’s entirely possible that’s accurate as well though it opens some eyes, the 59-36 margin for Romney is a lot more likely than 45-39 is. Obama hasn’t even been in Louisiana lately other than to party at the House of Blues, have a failed high-dollar fundraiser and give a speech at the Urban League convention on a one-day swing back in the summer, and to trail behind Romney to view Hurricane Isaac damage. Meanwhile Romney has visited twice for staggeringly-successful fundraisers ($6 million in two trips) and was the first to come for Isaac. That, plus campaign stops here in the primaries.
A six-point Romney margin is entirely unlikely. Particularly considering John McCain won Louisiana by a 59-40 count, nothing Obama has done in the last four years should have made him more popular in the state and Romney is a far better candidate than McCain was in a state which is even more conservative now than it was in 2008.
But be that as it may, now there are two polls out on how Louisianans think about the big races now and in the future. You’re free to choose which one to believe.