This one isn’t quite the knockout that the Fox News poll of 10 days ago was for the lead Republican challenger in the race, but the numbers still show him ahead.
With likely voters that is, but not registered voters. Meaning that in a runoff the get-out-the-vote operations will be colossally important if these numbers are real.
First, the three-way results with Rob Maness in the race…
And then the head-to-head numbers between Cassidy and Landrieu…
They also ran the numbers in a Maness-Landrieu race, and with the likelies it’s a 48-48 tie but the registered voters give it to Mary by a 53-42 count.
The sample on this poll is interesting, and we’re not sure whether it’s a good skew for Cassidy or not. Some 36 percent of the respondents say they’re independents, 33 percent say they’re Republicans and 31 percent say they’re Democrats. That 31 percent is a pretty low number, but not overly so based on some of the turnout in recent non-presidential elections.
And among the likely voters, 37 percent say they approve of Obama while 61 percent disapprove. That might be a couple of points high.
Something else interesting is the racial breakdown of the numbers in the head-to-head with Cassidy. Landrieu is catching 26 percent of the white vote, which is a bit better than in some of the other polls in the race which have her below 20, but there is no “gender gap” – Cassidy is actually beating her 49-48 with women, and 68-29 with white women.
And something else interesting – you might have seen the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee ad (it’s not quite possible to have missed it over the last week or so) with the old ladies griping that they don’t trust Bill Cassidy. It’s part of a $2.5 million DSCC buy bashing Cassidy for his votes on Medicare and “tax cuts for millionaires.” There’s a reason for that – namely, that Cassidy is hanging tough with Landrieu with the 50-plus crowd and with the 65-plus crowd in particular he’s now ahead of her…
In all, it’s a poll the Cassidy camp would be cautiously pleased with, but Landrieu’s camp will see it as a signal that the race is still winnable for her with enough GOTV.