Rasmussen: Mary 41, Bill 38, Rob 14 – But That’s Not The Real News

The latest poll out of Rasmussen has numbers fairly consistent with what we’ve been seeing of late in the Louisiana Senate race. Rob Maness has climbed into the low or mid teens, but he’s not a serious contender for a spot in the runoff. Bill Cassidy is where he usually is in the three-way, which is the high 30’s or maybe low 40’s. And Mary Landrieu is at or just above 40.

The poll was of 965 likely voters, and it was taken Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

But the three-way numbers aren’t what’s interesting about the Rasmussen poll. What’s interesting about the poll is the head-to-head between Cassidy and Landrieu.

Cassidy 52
Landrieu 43

You saw that right. They’re showing a nine-point lead for Cassidy. And Landrieu’s ceiling continues to sit below 45 percent.

There is now less than three weeks left until the primary in this race and at this point it’s starting to look like Landrieu is going to need a miracle to get to 50 percent plus one in November. At 41 in this poll, she just doesn’t have any real chance to get there – not when Cassidy is at 38 and Maness is at 14. Cassidy and Maness might trade a few voters between now and Election Day, but it’s hard to see how Landrieu could get any of them.

And if this poll is valid, and there is only seven percent left undecided, the maximum she could get in three weeks is 48. That’s not enough, and it’s highly unlikely in any event – as the head-to-head numbers show. All she can get is 43 in the head-to-head.

This points to something akin to a Bataan Death March for Landrieu between now and December. Between numbers like these and the hiring of old Landrieu hand Ryan Berni to take over her campaign, it all points to a nastier and nastier campaign aimed at trying to depress conservative and Republican turnout and change the electorate. That’s unlikely to work, but she’s running out of options.

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