We would have continued the Election Night Live-Blog, but the hiatus we took lasted longer than we expected. And since our readers probably found most of the big news about tonight elsewhere as it was breaking, what we’re going to do is just compile the results of a bunch of races for reference when you guys see the site in the morning.
So here we go.
First, the Senate race. The numbers came out a bit like we expected, but better.
|Wayne Ables (D)||0.77%||11318|
|“Bill” Cassidy (R)||40.96%||602439|
|Thomas Clements (R)||0.96%||14158|
|Mary L. Landrieu (D)||42.08%||618840|
|“Rob” Maness (R)||13.76%||202413|
|Brannon Lee McMorris (L)||0.89%||13024|
|Vallian Senegal (D)||0.26%||3831|
|William P. Waymire, Jr. (D)||0.32%||4669|
So what does this mean?
Well, if you add Wayne Ables, Val Senegal and William Waymire’s vote to Mary Landrieu’s, you get all of 43.43 percent.
You get a 56.57-43.43 beatdown. And that’s if the electorate in December is exactly as it was last night. Which it won’t be.
Landrieu put a brave face on the disaster, and said in a laughable speech following the results coming in that “now we have the race that we wanted” and that the Koch Brothers’ war chest won’t save Bill Cassidy. It was an embarrassing spectacle, and one we’re going to delve into in greater detail on Wednesday.
Then there was the 5th District race…
|Ralph Lee Abraham (R)||23.16%||55487|
|Eliot S. Barron (G)||0.69%||1654|
|Harris Brown (R)||4.13%||9890|
|“Zach” Dasher (R)||22.39%||53627|
|Clyde C. Holloway (R)||7.46%||17875|
|“Jamie” Mayo (D)||28.22%||67610|
|Vance M. McAllister (R)||11.11%||26605|
|Charles Saucier (L)||0.92%||2200|
|“Ed” Tarpley (R)||1.92%||4593|
As it turned out, the race became a battle between Ralph Abraham and Zach Dasher to grab the runoff spot opposite Jamie Mayo, and Abraham managed to grind out a close win. He’s sure to annihilate Mayo in the runoff – the Monroe mayor claiming just 28 percent of the vote as the only Democrat in the race underscores how hopeless his cause is in December. He’ll get beat 70-30, or maybe worse.
“We’re celebrating our first-place victory, but we’re mindful that we have another race to win in the runoff,” Mayo said. “I commend all of the candidates and congratulate Dr. Abraham. We see a clear path to ultimate victory in the runoff.”
So there’s that. Surely Abraham is shaking in his boots.
Vance McAllister’s 11 percent has to be the worst showing for an incumbent in a major race in Louisiana history, no? Eleven percent? We can’t think of anybody running that poorly, but perhaps one of our readers could come up with someone who did worse.
For Dasher, while it has to be an excruciating result the race he ran would seem to offer some possibilities for future campaigns. He acquitted himself well as a political newcomer and an attractive young constitutional conservative.
And in the 6th District, an interesting result – though not an unexpected one…
|Robert Lamar “Bob” Bell (R)||2.01%||5182|
|“Dan” Claitor (R)||10.26%||26520|
|Norman “Norm” Clark (R)||0.72%||1848|
|Rufus Holt Craig, Jr. (L)||1.38%||3560|
|Paul Dietzel II (R)||13.55%||35013|
|Edwin Edwards (D)||30.12%||77852|
|Garret Graves (R)||27.36%||70706|
|Richard Lieberman (D)||2.83%||7306|
|Craig McCulloch (R)||2.25%||5814|
|“Trey” Thomas (R)||0.56%||1447|
|Lenar Whitney (R)||7.41%||19146|
|Peter Williams (D)||1.56%||4036|
Interestingly, the results of the race were eerily similar to a poll taken late in the race by Garret Graves’ pollster John Diez. Diez had Edwards at 29 percent, Graves at 24, Dietzel at 13, Claitor at 10 and Whitney at 6. Considering that Diez’ greatest variance, three percent, was with his own client and actually undersold his support, he has to be seen as a winner from Tuesday’s results and he’s got a nice story to tell future clients about the value of his services.
Edwards, at 30 percent, faces an ugly reality – his act has worn very thin with voters in the 6th District and if he stays in the race he’s going to take the electoral beating of his life.
Dietzel’s 14 percent was a good showing and his campaign manager J. Ryan Hudson is going to be a relatively hot name on the campaign trail in 2015. Dietzel’s political career likely isn’t over, either; he’s an attractive candidate who brought a strong conservative message that did resonate with the voters; Graves just got in his way.
Claitor and Whitney, the two state legislators in the race, had disastrous showings. There was lots of talk Tuesday night about their vulnerability to potential challengers for the legislature next year. Specifically Claitor, whose late-campaign attacks on Graves were breathtakingly dirty and dishonest – particularly a radio spot he aired in Baton Rouge on Election Day which was unbelievably vicious and insulting and won’t be forgotten. There might well be some money looking for a candidate in his state Senate district as the 2015 cycle gets started.
Nationally, the Senate looks like it’s going to be a 54-46 Republican split before it’s over. The races of note…
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Shaheen (D) 52, Brown (R) 48; DEMOCRAT HOLD
NORTH CAROLINA – Hagan (D) 47, Tillis (R) 49; REPUBLICAN GAIN
WEST VIRGINIA – Tennant (D) 34, Moore Capito (R) 62; REPUBLICAN GAIN
VIRGINIA – Warner (D) 49.1, Gillespie (R) 48.5; DEMOCRAT HOLD (but with a 12,000-vote margin this might be a good race for the GOP to come in and fight the result)
GEORGIA – Nunn (D) 45, Perdue (R) 53; REPUBLICAN HOLD
KENTUCKY – Grimes (D) 41, McConnell (R) 55; REPUBLICAN HOLD
MICHIGAN – Peters (D) 55, Land (R) 41; DEMOCRAT HOLD
ILLINOIS – Durbin (D) 53, Oberweis (R) 43; DEMOCRAT HOLD
IOWA – Braley (D) 44, Ernst (R) 52; REPUBLICAN GAIN
MINNESOTA – Franken (D) 53, McFadden (R) 43; DEMOCRAT HOLD
SOUTH DAKOTA – Weiland (D) 29, Rounds (R) 51; REPUBLICAN GAIN
NEBRASKA – Domina (D) 31, Sasse (R) 65; REPUBLICAN HOLD
KANSAS – Roberts (R) 53, Orman (I) 43; REPUBLICAN HOLD
ARKANSAS – Pryor (D) 40, Cotton (R) 57; REPUBLICAN GAIN
COLORADO – Udall (D) 45, Gardner (R) 50; REPUBLICAN GAIN
MONTANA – Curtis (D) 40, Daines (R) 58; REPUBLICAN GAIN
ALASKA – Begich (D) 45, Sullivan (R) 49; REPUBLICAN GAIN (the race hadn’t been called as of posting time)
That’s eight Republican gains, plus Louisiana which would make nine. That’s 54 seats.
Plus, Maine’s independent Senator Angus King will likely caucus with the Republicans, which makes a 55-seat majority.
And then we come to West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin. Who is up for re-election in 2016. And has to look at the 62-34 margin the Democrat was clobbered by this year, the standing of the major issues in that state (social issues, coal, etc.) and the prospects those circumstances will change and has to recognize there isn’t much chance of him holding his seat as a Democrat.
Manchin is very likely to try to cut the best deal he can for himself, and then jump to the GOP.
That could make for a 56-seat majority, and that’s a number which is likely bulletproof for 2016, when the GOP has a lot more seats to defend than the Democrats do.
All in all, a frightening night for Democrats and an electoral wipeout that will go down in history as one of the worst beatings a political party has ever taken in a midterm election. We’ll have to take some time to assess the results, but it’s a safe statement that the pounding the Democrats took is a sizable repudiation of their governance.