We check in once a week with the rolling results of the CIVIQS tracking poll of Joe Biden’s approval, because it’s a great benchmark for reality and we like the methodology a lot.
CIVIQS has built a universe of some 150,000 polling respondents, and it periodically hits them up with online poll questions. We assume they just get a notification on their phones, they click on it and answer a few quick questions and they’re done, and then CIVIQS tabulates and releases the results. We really like that as a model for polling going forward.
It’s hard to judge poll results as accurate or not accurate, but CIVIQS has generally been pretty securely in the mainstream of the results where Biden’s approval rating is concerned.
Right now, as of Monday’s results, they have him at 34 percent approval nationally.
That’s awful, of course, but it tracks pretty closely with that Quinnipiac poll last week which had Biden at 33 percent. CIVIQS had Biden at 35 in the same time frame; he’s dropped two points in the past week which is understandable given the unbelievably poor performance his administration showed. Biden went to Atlanta and gave a speech which was so deranged and so offensive as to call into question not just his own cognitive ability but that of his handlers, and it flopped – Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin both steadfastly refused to heed his call to blow up the filibuster in service to a terrible “voting rights” bill the elements of which are deeply unpopular with the American people.
And then there was the seven percent inflation rate, the terrible retail numbers from December, the Supreme Court trashing his vaccine mandate, the admissions from various federal public health bureaucrats that the vaccines are barely effective if at all, word coming down that Biden’s education secretary was behind the National School Boards Association’s letter requesting the FBI persecute parents who protest at school board meetings, and on and on.
Thirty-four percent sounds like it might even be generous.
But how’s Biden doing in Louisiana? Worse than nationally, as you might expect. That’s been the case for a while, but…
We think he can go lower than 28 percent. When you consider that 31 percent of the state’s electorate is black and Biden sits at 62 percent with black voters, you realize that’s what’s holding his numbers up. Blacks are fairly loyal Democrats, to be sure, but let’s face it – 62 is already pretty low, and a lot of this administration’s far-left policies aren’t really a good cultural fit for the black vote. You could have some fatigue there, and that 62 percent could well drop over time particularly if inflation, which is a regressive tax affecting everyone, continues at current or higher levels.
But among white voters in Louisiana? We don’t know how this number could get worse.
This is obviously a major reflection on Biden’s performance, but the implications of it are larger in the context of elections this year and next.
Obviously none of the Republican incumbents in Congress or the Senate are going to lose re-election in Louisiana this fall, Gary Chambers’ insurrection within the Democrat Party notwithstanding. But Biden’s cratering approval rating should mean that the state’s Republican-majority legislature ought to be hyper-aggressive in this year’s legislative session to push Republican core items like expanded school choice, freedom from mask and vaccine mandates, combatting critical race theory and other woke aggressions, and so on (and there are indications this is exactly what’s coming). Let Gov. John Bel Edwards attempt to stop the bleeding with his veto pen under this political environment; if he does that he’ll only make things worse.
And that starts with the legislature’s special session next month to redraw districts for Congress, the Supreme Court, the judicial and legislative districts and so forth. It’s been an item of priority on the right for a long time that legislative districts, for example, should be drawn to maximize both black majorities and Republican majorities at the expense of the state’s white Democrats.
There are only two white Democrats in the Senate and seven – actually six, now that Malinda White is calling herself an independent – in the House. House Governmental Affairs Committee chair John Stefanski, who’ll be in charge of the redistricting map in that body, ought to have as his goal to knock that number down to one or two at most. Black voters are 60 percent of Democrat voter registration and whites are just 36 percent of that party, and what’s more we now know that many or most registered white Democrats are really Republican voters who just haven’t changed their party affiliation.
CIVIQS marks Biden’s approval rating with white Democrats in Louisiana as 73 percent. That tells you how few whites are willing, despite their registration, to identify themselves as Democrats anymore. With white Republicans you see something which is somewhat predictable and yet completely mind-blowing…
And with independents, it’s really not much better…
So a 73 percent approval among Democrats and a 73 percent disapproval among independents. How crazy is that?
The fact that he’s at 73 percent approval among white Democrats, 15 percent with white independents and essentially zero percent with white Republicans and the composite number is 11 percent is an indication of how concentrated white voters are becoming inside the Republican Party in Louisiana.
This tells you the next governor of the state will be a Republican, and the more anti-Biden the candidates the better their chances of winning. That will also hold true in legislative races next year.
Unless there’s a change in Biden’s fortunes. That could happen. But we’re struggling to see how.