Times have been tough for Conservatives. Coming off a disappointing Midterm election cycle last Fall, the recent indictment of President Trump and the loss of the Wisconsin Supreme Court have already cast a dark shadow over the 2024 Presidential election cycle.
Personally, these mounting losses caused me to reflect on the future of the Conservative movement and our country at-large. We must have an honest discussion about the Conservative movement’s path given the current state of national politics.
Moving forward, the harsh reality is that national politics will likely become a losing proposition for Conservatives/Republicans in the coming years.
You might be surprised to hear this message, but several factors will make it highly difficult for any Conservative to win the presidency in the times to come. In this article, we will cover two key issues for Conservatives in national politics:
- Mass Immigration
- Voting laws in swing states
First off, we all know that millions of immigrants (both legal and illegal) have entered the United States each year, and nothing is being done to cut off the flow of immigration by the Biden administration and the Republican House of Representatives. Why is this fact important? Well, immigrants vote overwhelmingly for Liberal/Democrat politicians. This fact has been historically true for a long-time, and there is no reason for trend to stop for the foreseeable future—despite many Republicans’ rosy rhetoric about immigrants voting for Conservative elected officials.
For instance, you can look at the impact of immigration on states like California, Arizona, and Virginia. Immigration essentially turned those once-“ruby red” states into Democrat strongholds regarding national politics. Conservatives/Republicans cannot afford to lose any more states on the electoral map for Presdiental elections, but immigration won’t do Conservatives any favors.
You can also look at mass immigration has turned the state of Texas into a nearly-purple state/swing state. Back in 2018, incumbent US Senator Ted Cruz nearly lost to the perennial loser Beto O’Rourke—by a slim margin of 2.6%. Suffice to say, Conservatives have not shot at winning the Presidency anytime soon without Texas’s electoral votes.
In short, mass immigration does not favor Conservatives in national politics.
Secondly, the voting laws in swing states favor Democrats now. Swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and others have now moved more toward a “mail-in ballot” voting system—making election season a month-long affair instead of a single day. With the change in election laws, Liberals/Democrats took advantage of the election law changes by implementing practices like ballot harvesting to ensure high Democrat turnout in elections with mail-ballots. On the other hand, Conservatives still have not figured out the “new normal” of large-scale mail-in voting and rely almost solely on in-person Election-day voting.
Unfortunately, key swing states are unlikely to fix their voting laws as Democrats control the state-wide elected offices of these states—specifically Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan. Without those key swing states, Republicans have virtually no shot to gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Presidency.
When you consider Mass immigration and Voting laws in swing states, Conservatives/Republicans will likely struggle in National politics in the years to come.
At this point, you may wonder if there’s any point to for Conservatives to get involved with politics. If Conservatives don’t have a shot at the White House, then what’s the point?
Do not fear, we have an answer to the problem of National politics. From this point forward, Conservatives must focus on State and local politics.
The good news is that Conservatives control the State governments of a solid 15-20 states both in terms of the voting electorate, policies, and its elected officials. So, the opportunity exists for Conservatives to enact meaningful legislation on the state and local level in these Conservative-leaning states.
Regarding Louisiana, conservatives have a golden opportunity to effectively govern our home state despite the issues going on in Washington DC. With a super majority in both the State Senate and House, Republicans can finally put our state on the right path after years of incompetent governance coming from the Governor’s mansion and Louisiana’s major cities.
2023 is going to be a crucial year for Louisiana conservatives to retake the Governor’s mansion and retain a Super-majority in the State Legislature. So when the dust settles after Louisiana’s 2023 election cycle, my hope is that Louisiana becomes a truly Conservative, shining beacon to the rest of the country.
Of course, many of our elected officials need to still get their act together, but I am still optimistic about the future of Louisiana—despite the tough times endured for the past few years.
The path forward for Louisiana Conservatives is in our own backyard. So, let’s make sure to fix things here at home instead of putting our ultimate hope in national politics.