There’s a new poll out which was commissioned by a Democrat organization, and what it shows is the same Jeff Landry-Shawn Wilson runoff we’ve been saying is all but inevitable in this fall’s Louisiana gubernatorial race.

The survey was done by Democrat pollster Jim Kitchens, who was John Bel Edwards’ pollster in 2015, and it was commissioned by a Shreveport data company called The Vantage Group.

And the numbers?

Landry at 31 percent, Wilson at 21 percent, everybody else at six percent or less. “Someone else” not named was at seven percent and the undecideds were at 25.

Without seeing the crosstabs, it’s hard to say much for sure. But here’s the thing – If Jeff Landry is at 31 percent he’s now over 50 percent with Republicans and independents, and that would mean it’s all but mathematically impossible for either John Schroder, Stephen Waguespack or Sharon Hewitt, much less Hunter Lundy or Richard Nelson, to nudge their way into the runoff.

Some of the media reports out there would say that this poll shows a lane for another Republican to make the runoff. To believe that you’ve got to believe that of the 25 percent undecideds and 7 percent “someone elses,” the majority of them are Republican primary voters who are trying to decide between, say, Schroder and Waguespack.

Again, without seeing the crosstabs, we’re going to assume based on all the other polls we’ve seen and the fundamentals of the race that anybody who thinks a second Republican will jump Wilson into the runoff is kidding themselves.

Wilson at 21 percent isn’t consolidating the black vote. At 21 percent he’s pulling maybe a little more than half of it, plus he’s getting some percentage of white liberals who are 10 to 15 percent of the electorate. Yes, the Republicans may manage 10 to 15 percent of the black vote, but it’s a little better than 30 percent of the electorate – so of the undecideds and “someone elses,” you can allocate probably half to Wilson.

Or at least a third.

And once you do that, the race is pretty much over.

The history of governor’s races in Louisiana is that there is usually some candidate who comes out of nowhere to upset the favorites and win the race. That’s the primary basis for people believing there’s a path for a third guy.

If there was only one other Republican, there might be enough votes left over to jump either Wilson or Landry. But the problem is, there isn’t.

Perhaps the most telling dynamic in the race right now is that Schroder and Waguespack are locked in a death struggle. Both of them are spending a significant amount of their war chests trying to generate momentum, and yet they’re both stuck in the mid-single digits.

Waguespack didn’t get anywhere with one of his PACs attacking Landry. He got hammered for it by Steve Scalise, no less, and then a Landry PAC clapped back at him essentially calling him the second coming of Bobby Jindal. Which points up a challenge for him, which is that he’s got to either rehabilitate Jindal or repudiate him if he’s going to gain wide support. So far he’s done neither, and it’s starting to get a bit late.

And Schroder’s problem, which so far he hasn’t really addressed, is that his base voters are conservatives, just like Landry, but those voters like Landry better.

Meaning Schroder has to wait around for Landry’s support to crash.

That’s possible, we guess, but everything we see so far is that Jeff Landry’s support is exceptionally solid. It’s a lot like Donald Trump’s support, as it should be – Trump endorsed Landry, after all, and a huge share of Trump’s people in Louisiana are Landry’s people.

It’s still very early and things could change. We just don’t see how right now. Not when every one of these polls keeps showing the same thing.