For the last week or so, since the Nexstar TV stations around the state put out the results of an Emerson College poll they commissioned on the Louisiana governor’s race which showed Jeff Landry at just under 40 percent, most of the buzz around the race was speculation about whether Landry had a chance to end things in the primary in October.

That’s still possible, but a new survey by New Orleans pollster Ron Faucheux commissioned by WBRZ-TV in Baton Rouge (among others) seems to tilt a bit more toward a Landry runoff with the Democrat, Shawn Wilson.

The frontrunners at the start of the 2023 campaign for Louisiana governor are the frontrunners today, according to a new statewide poll—but it is Republican Jeff Landry who is “best positioned to win” the race this fall.

WBRZ and several partner organizations commissioned the poll, which was conducted by Faucheux Strategies from Aug. 14-19.

Landry, the current Louisiana Attorney General, holds the lead position with 36 percent support. The only major Democrat to qualify, former DOTD Secretary Shawn Wilson, is at 26 percent.

No other candidate approached double-digit support when likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held right now. Independent Hunter Lundy registered third at 7 percent, followed by Republicans Steven Waguespack (6 percent), John Schroder (4 percent), Sharon Hewitt (3 percent), and Richard Nelson (2 percent).

Election Day is Oct. 14, and early voting for Louisiana’s open primary will occur from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7. If no single candidate exceeds 50 percent, a runoff featuring the top two vote-getters will take place on Nov. 18.

The scientific survey shows Landry well ahead of his most likely opponent in a runoff. In such a head-to-head contest, 54 percent of voters polled would vote for Landry, with 36 percent supporting Wilson and another 10 percent unsure.

Landry may not have unified support in a first round of voting, but he appears likely to rally the party to his side in a runoff. While 9 out of 10 Republicans would choose Landry in that runoff scenario, only 7 out of 10 Democrats say they would back Wilson.

Those commissioning the poll are a little more left than right, though we wouldn’t call it a Democrat poll per se…

Other media outlets in the polling partnership include WWL-TV, KTBS-TV, KATC, and The Times-Picayune/The Advocate. The Urban League of Louisiana and the Public Affairs Research Council round out the sponsorship group.

That 9 out of 10 number for Landry among Republicans in a runoff matchup is what’s going to keep Wilson from raising any national Democrat money. There would be reason to throw cash into the race even if it was hopeless if the Democrats were trying to help some of their down-ballot people, but frankly they really don’t have anybody who isn’t a lost cause at this point. Probably the best of their down-ballot statewide candidates is Dustin Granger, who’s running for treasurer, but it’s as likely as not at this point that John Fleming and Scott McKnight might both make the runoff rather than Granger.

Gwen Collins-Greenup is a shoo-in to make the runoff for Secretary of State and then a shoo-in to get blown out by whatever Republican is in there with her. The Democrats only have Willie Jones in the Lt. Governor race and he’s a hopeless cause, Lindsey Cheek and Perry Terrebonne are hopeless causes in the Attorney General’s race. And they’ve never been in worse shape in legislative races in Louisiana than they are right now in almost every district which isn’t majority-black.

So with Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear in a real race in Kentucky this fall, their money will go there. If Wilson demonstrated any ability to pull GOP votes off Landry the way John Bel Edwards was able to pull them off David Vitter in 2015 and Eddie Rispone in 2019, things might be different. But they aren’t.

That would largely mean that it doesn’t matter whether Landry gets to 50 percent plus one on October 14, or if he wins in a huge blowout in November. The eventual outcome seems pretty clear.

Or maybe it isn’t. There’s still time for things to change, perhaps.

But we saw something which indicates to us how tough it’s going to be for one of the other Republicans to change it…

It’s a little weird to see a Republican candidate sourcing attacks on other Republicans from the Louisiana Illuminator, but with Schroder at four percent he’s now attacking Waguespack alongside Landry, and what that tells you is the death-struggle is real. Schroder’s camp realizes they can’t compete to make the runoff without taking Waguespack out, so now he’s included in the attacks. You’d figure Waguespack is likely to hit Schroder back, and at that point you can envision those two neutralizing each other.

Schroder’s hit on Landry, unlike the one on Waguespack which hammers him as a Bobby Jindal minion, doesn’t seem like it’s all that strong. Landry has a staffing company and he’s using that to do work for his campaigns? Well, of course he does that. Who wouldn’t? There’s nothing inherently illegal or unethical about that, and explaining why it disqualifies him entails a trip into the weeds most voters won’t have patience for.

The point being that what drama is left in this race will revolve around whether anybody can peel votes off Landry and/or the other secondary candidates to amalgamate enough support to make the runoff. Right now it just doesn’t look like that’s happening.

And the Nexstar poll raised the specter of the opposite happening, which is that Landry, who has more money than the rest of the field combined and who’s covering the airwaves with ads, might start peeling votes off the other Republican candidates as their voters start to see him as inevitable. Faucheux’s poll has 90 percent of them already saying they plan on voting for Landry eventually, so it isn’t that big a stretch for the vote to come in the primary rather than the runoff if we’re talking about a surge in momentum.

But Faucheux has him at 36 percent, rather than 40, and picking up 14 points out of the 31 percent which is either undecided (16 percent; most of that being Democrat voters who’ll probably go to Wilson) or is currently with Schroder, Waguespack, Sharon Hewitt or Richard Nelson might be a high hill to climb. It’s easier to see that if he’s at 40 like the Nexstar poll had him.

Either way, there really aren’t any surprises here. Nothing has happened to shake the perception of a Landry victory sooner or later.