Forget the record haul of campaign cash, the polling numbers consistently making him the front runner, or the avalanche of endorsements that Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry has racked up in his quest to become the state’s next governor. The most significant indicator of impending success in his campaign just flashed while telling us more about another state politician.

This week, GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy gave his official seal of approval to Landry’s bid. In a social media post, he cited clamor for Landry helming the state and policy congruence on issues of flood insurance pricing, coastal restoration, and access to mental health services as his reasons for choosing Landry over four other decently-funded Republicans, all of whom trail Landry badly in donation amounts and polling numbers.

A high-profile blessing can’t hurt Landry’s prospects, although at first glance it seems like an odd paring. Landry has become known, and popular in Louisiana, because of his unapologetic conservatism that he invokes in head-on clashes with Democrats and liberals from which not only does he not shy away, but he instigates when provoked, such as the series of legal actions he has helped to launch against a number of Democrat Pres. Joe Biden actions, emulating similar challenges to executive overreach committed by Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards. In most of these legal conflicts, Landry’s side has prevailed.

By contrast, ever since he won a second term commencing with Biden’s term, Cassidy has slid in the opposite direction, adopting an accommodationist view of Biden by signing on to part of the president’s legislative program almost universally opposed by his party, the most consequential of which, the hyper-inflationary and waste-ridden Infrastructure and Investments Jobs Act, will fritter away hundreds of billions of dollars and act as an anchor dragging on economic growth. And he was one of a few GOP senators to vote for the impeachment conviction of Republican former Pres. Donald Trump on spurious, delusionary charges.

This illuminates the most bizarre aspect of the endorsement, for Landry in his take-no-prisoners style often is compared to Trump, and won Trump’s endorsement nearly three months ago. More than any other incongruity, this points to the main reason by Cassidy threw in his lot with Landry.

Since he began selective sellouts to Democrats, the mistaken impeachment vote and subsequent efforts to evade responsibility for it, Cassidy’s popularity among Louisianans has plunged. His approval numbers have polled significantly lower than his GOP counterpart Sen. John Kennedy, with Republicans actually holding him in lower esteem than Democrats according to one taken over a year ago.

This puts any hopes of serving beyond 2026 in jeopardy. And matters become much worse if prior to then if the state switches back to a closed primary system for federal elections, where Cassidy almost assuredly would lose the GOP nomination against any quality conservative – a system Landry has advocated in the past.

Understand that Cassidy’s tabbing of Landry attempts not only to try to align himself with a popular conservative favored to take over the executive branch, as a means of trying to make conservatives in the electorate forget their displeasure with him, but also a strategy to mitigate Landry actions that could harm a reelection attempt. With the endorsement, he may hope Landry reciprocates, or at least observes neutrality, in 2026 regardless if Landry serves as governor, and that Landry not go to great lengths to back institution of closed primaries if he gains the governorship.

Importantly, that Cassidy did this reveals his calculation that Landry has a very good chance of triumphing this fall. Yet the real consequence of the Cassidy endorsement of Landry isn’t that it will pick up a few votes for Landry, but that an endangered Cassidy hopes that it creates a lifeline to keep him in office three years from now.