It’s a sure thing the Louisiana House of Representatives candidate in the northwest part of the state that either spends the most or second-most money on campaigning will lose this fall.

That has become apparent from the campaign finance reports filed earlier this month, which don’t hold many surprises. Of the area’s ten contests, four have been decided with just one candidate qualifying, while a couple of others seem unlikely to be competitive.

In House District 7 in Caddo and parishes south, Republican state Rep. Larry Bagley seems set to win a final term, having raised over $100,000 this year, spent over half of it, and still having over $200,000 available. By contrast, energy employee Republican Tim Pruitt hasn’t even garnered five figures and, while an endorsement from the Louisiana Freedom Caucus Political Action Committee will help, he faces quite an uphill battle.

By the same resource differential metric, HD 6 in Caddo would look much closer than it is. GOP Board of Elementary and Secondary Education member Michael Melerine doesn’t have five figures worth of contributions, but he does have a district very favorable to conservatives and name recognition for service in his current office, and lent himself $20,000. He did get a late start after eschewing reelection to chase this seat after its incumbent opted for a Senate run. This should be more than enough to win convincingly against Democrat retired nonprofit executive Robert Darrow, who has raised just a couple of thousand bucks, and no party lawyer Evan McMichael who has a token C-note in his account.

Sometimes it works the other way around. In HD 2 in Caddo and Bossier Parishes, Democrat Caddo Parish School Board member Terence Vinson has crested $20,000 and spent about two-thirds, much of it on campaign workers to canvass the district. His opponent, Democrat Caddo Parish Commissioner Steven Jackson, actually has raised twice as much and combined it with his existing funds to have $50,000 on hand after spending much more on media than Vinson and on consulting services although with a firm known more for staging celebratory and entertainment events.

This perhaps reflects the public relations problems that Jackson faces, most recently having been convicted in Bossier Parish for impersonating a police officer. Not having that baggage makes Vinson able to concentrate on a more traditionally effective campaign strategy for constituencies with large black populations and gives him the edge.

House District 4, in urban Caddo Parish, campaigns also deliver a contrast in styles. Democrat CPSB member Jasmine Green raised little and went into the red to buy some signs and shirts. Democrat contracting consultant Joy Walters, who nearly won the HD 3 seat in 2019 and who has a background as a party activist, with a loan from herself nudged into five figures in receipts, and spent a lot on travel and food and drink for herself and campaign workers, including some well outside the district and even the state, as well as some on campaign consultancy outside the area. She keeps and active media presence not reflected in the report, not emulated by Democrat Caddo Parish Commissioner Lyndon Johnson, also a party activist, who raised a bit less and plowed much of that into more traditional display and informational media. It will be an interesting clash of generational campaign styles between Walters and Johnson, the latter of whom despite years in elective office unlike the former never has run a campaign at close to this scale.

The HD 1 race, covering rural northern Caddo Parish, features some big dollars on both sides. GOP state Rep. Danny McCormick, also a Freedom Caucus PAC endorsee, spent over $100,000 this year, but after raising about two-thirds as much still has just over six figures left for the home stretch. His 2019 opponent Republican Randall Liles only raised half as much, with a good chunk of that from a loan from himself, and had just over five figures banked, giving McCormick a clear advantage.

But taking the campaign finance cake by far were the two HD 9 Bossier Parish candidates in what, if not the most closely-competitive race in the area, will be the most competitive contest in terms of resources thrown into the fray. Businessman Republican Chris Turner raised $77,000 in 2023, spent most of it, and has over $61,000 remaining, yet GOP state Rep. Dodie Horton – who voluntarily reported in the first and second quarters and a Freedom Caucus PAC endorsee – raised almost as much in just the third quarter minus a couple of weeks, spending almost half to end up with nearly $90,000 left. In total, this year she has raised nearly $150,000 and spent about as much.

For Turner, few of his dollars came from outside the parish but from several elected or appointed officials within it and a number of corporate donors contributed. In Horton’s case, she received more PAC dollars and from several legislative colleagues outside the parish. These data confirm Turner appears to carry the water of the Bossier political establishment, while Horton, who in addition to the Freedom Caucus has gained the endorsement of Republican Sen. John Kennedy and several other interest groups, represents broader and more consistently conservative interests.

These also confirm that, when all is said and done, the pair likely will go one-two in amount spent, meaning one of the top two highest area spenders will lose. Which it will be is too close as of yet to call.