Recent state and local elections in Louisiana essentially confirmed that Republicans as expected would pick up a seat in each chamber in the Legislature, but produce a more conservative Senate beyond that.

Before any votes were cast, Republicans already had sewed up majorities in both legislative chambers. In the Senate, 12 were elected unopposed (including those who originally had opponents later disqualified) while another 10 featured all-GOP contests. In the House, 31 eventually faced no opposition and 25 were all-GOP affairs. Democrats were guaranteed 8 Senate seats and 29 in the House. This meant fewer than half of Senate seats had any competition at all, and in the House just over half did.

Of the remaining 9 Senate and 20 House contests – meaning inter-party competition in only 23 percent in the Senate and 19 percent in the House – 4 in the Senate were heads-up matches between the two major parties and 5 such in the House, although in another couple a Republican went head-to-head with a non-Democrat (and another with multiple Republicans running), so party composition of these would be resolved with certainty. In all, the Senate had 5 party-contested races in GOP-leaning districts and in 3 leaning to Democrats, while in the House this occurred in 12 with a tilt to Republicans and in 5 tilting to Democrats.

When the dust settled, Republicans not only had retained supermajorities in each chamber, but increased the size of these. In the Senate, parties picked up their expected wins and sent only two races to a runoff, one each contested only by members of each major party, leaving the GOP with a seat increase and 28-11 advantage. Only one incumbent, Republican Robert Mills, lost, to another Republican after four years ago having become only one of three Senate newcomers to defeat an incumbent.

GOP gains look similar in the House. Of the 18 contests going to a runoff, 5 were all-Democrat and 8 all-Republican, with an additional Democrat/no party matchup. Of the 17 competitive contests with both major parties involved, Democrats won 3 of their 5 and Republicans (outright or with both in the runoff) won 9 of their 12, including its true tossup District 85. By general election results, the GOP is heavily favored to win its remaining competitive districts, and the Democrat/no party contest tilts well to the favor of Democrats.

The only district leaning to one party that the other might take is Democrats’ true tossup, HD 105, where Democrat incumbent Mack Cormier substantially trailed Republican Jacob Braud. Barely missing the runoff was Democrat Joanna Capiello-Leopold, but as the wife of Republican former Rep. Chris Leopold who Cormier beat four years ago – the only House incumbent to lose last cycle – don’t look for fellow Democrats to unite on the runoff, giving Braud the edge. If he does win, that gives the GOP a 72-33 advantage, up a seat currently.

And if so, he may join the solitary incumbent to lose in the House, HD 31’s Republican Jonathan Goudreau to Republican Troy Hebert. In remaining races featuring an incumbent, two involve Democrats only and two Republicans only and in HD 70 Republican Barbara Freiberg faces Democrat challenger Steve Myers, but all incumbents had led significantly heading into the runoff.

Viewing the ideological composition of each chamber taking into account existing legislators and retirements, the House should creep a bit to the right, mainly because of the HD 85 outcome that may be strengthened by the eventual HD 105 resolution. Both targeted consistent conservatives and moderate Republicans survived (with HD 18 Jeremy LaCombe’s, a Democrat-turned-Republican, contest pending).

That wasn’t the case in the Senate, where disproportionately GOP moderates retired and ended up replaced with more conservative Republicans from the House, which could ease it closer to the House’s existing more conservative tint. If incoming governor Republican Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry lobbies for it with attention paid to new House members in particular, there should be enough sentiment in each chamber to select a leadership willing to break the logjam of conservative legislation stalled over the past few years.