It’s a tough call this Saturday on Shreveport approving property tax hikes – necessary bromide or throwing good money after bad?

Across three proposals, the city plans to raise around $256 million for capital items. Almost half would go towards roads, streets, bridges, and surface and subsurface drainage systems (2.45 mills), while nearly a third would go to water and sewerage systems (1.6 mills), with the remainder going to public safety, buildings, and recreation (0.95 mills). Unlike measures to fund continuing government operations, the millages will vary depending upon bond issuance amounts and timings, with the city estimating 2027 would be the first year initial millages would be added to tax bills. Eventually, it predicts the total millage almost will double to close to 8 mills.

Regardless, success of any item at the polls will push Shreveport further into the category of the highest-taxed city without consolidated government in Louisiana. Republican current Mayor Tom Arceneaux’s predecessor Democrat Adrian Perkins three times attempted to have bond issues, around that neighborhood of a quarter-billion dollars give or take a few dozen millions, in various packages gain voter approval. His first attempt resulted in complete rejection at the polls, his second couldn’t get City Council assent, and in his third only one of five measures, about $71 million dedicated to public safety, passed voter muster.

Of course, the electorate quickly became distrustful of Perkins partly because of the opaqueness of spending plans and partly because of other shenanigans in his administration that eventually led to his ouster upon his trying for reelection. Undoubtedly this played a hand in the rejections, but this isn’t a problem Arceneaux should encounter. In great contrast, his term to date has featured little drama and the city has bent over backwards to inform the citizenry about the items to be funded and process to get there and stated its case for their acceptances, as well as publicizing progress made on the projects associated with the 2021 hike.

Even with potential skepticism likely mooted, the items face choppy waters. It’s a new tax on the books for at least 20 years and as many as 30, and the total property tax bill faced by city property owners, if all measures pass, would likely eventually push their rates into the stratospheric range of 160+ mills (by contrast, the typical Bossier City homeowner pays about 130, and that’s one of the highest in the state).

As well, a question remains about why the city needs to do all of this when it is shrinking in population. Unfortunately, its decline isn’t uniform; the closer to the city center, the more pronounced it is, while radiating outwards is new building and hence more infrastructure demands. Further, the consent decree over its water and sewerage systems continues to make voracious monetary demands.

As a result, the most urgent of the three is #2, which in the main replicates the critical projects that comprise work to fulfill the consent decree. Legally, the city must pursue these and is behind schedule. In voters’ minds, #1 also may have some criticality, as it addresses public safety even though most of the spending would occur on buildings and recreation, since they have shown a willingness to back things associated with public safety. In light of these, #3 seems the most optional where voters might be tempted to endure problematic roads and poor drainage in places (if they ever run into these).

Past recent elections show Shreveport voters willing to act strategically, so it’s not out of the question that they wouldn’t produce a clean inning – three up and three down. Yet the fact remains that for a city in decline a tax increase is the worst medicine possible that makes it even less amenable for population and wealth growth – unless fixing the items removes impediments even more likely to keep the city’s fortunes from reversing.

That noted, voting for #2 can help to solve very pressing needs, while the other two don’t rise to that level. Voters will have to engage in strategic calculation on this trio.