All in all, the entry of Republican state Sen. Blake Miguez into the GOP Senate nomination for the 2026 contest actually doesn’t change much about the dynamics already working against incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy.

Miguez joins heavyweight candidate GOP Treas. John Fleming and lightweight hospital administrator Sammy Wyatt. He brings conservative credentials that match Fleming’s—though not his experience in Congress and the White House—and becomes easily the youngest candidate in the race.

Cassidy’s problem is that, for reasons that, when analyzed, seem unconvincing beyond personal dislike for Trump, he voted to convict Republican Pres. Donald Trump on spurious impeachment charges. He also cozied up to elements of the Democrats’ fiscal agenda during the first half of Democrat former Pres. Joe Biden’s term. That hasn’t been forgotten—and while Cassidy’s campaign has a formidable bankroll to try to induce memory lapses among GOP voters, Fleming’s has more than enough to remind them.

Now, here comes Miguez to pile on—as seen in his introductory social media post—which obviously won’t help Cassidy. The difficult electoral math for Cassidy is that he polls poorly against rivals like Miguez, and the more that quality conservatives jump in, the more votes he loses. In the case of Miguez, some putative Cassidy voters may have been in his column solely due to concerns about Fleming, such as his age (Fleming would be in his mid-seventies if elected, though he is in excellent health and certainly not in a rocking chair as he runs the Treasury Department; nor is Cassidy that much younger). Now, with a perceived viable alternative to Fleming, those voters may slough off Cassidy—and the same dynamic could apply to some Fleming voters who are only with him because he’s a quality candidate and he’s not Cassidy.

Miguez’s biggest challenge will be money, which buys name recognition—why polling shows him with only a slim lead and the only candidate with just a plurality of intended votes over Cassidy. A successful challenger must fight a two-front war: go after Cassidy to ensure a spot in the runoff, while also lobbing occasional shots at other challengers to prevent Cassidy and someone else from edging him out. Fleming has the resources to do that; as of yet, Miguez doesn’t.

That paucity of name recognition is why polling shows Miguez as the least electorally capable opponent to replace Cassidy. Likely, after spending to build his visibility, Miguez would siphon more votes from Cassidy—and to a lesser extent from Fleming. In fact, though less likely than a runoff featuring Cassidy, it’s possible that Fleming and Miguez, if the latter ramps up campaign spending, could knock Cassidy out in the primary.

But the rule of thumb here is this: first, build name recognition—then contrast yourself with the others. For Miguez, some time-sharing in the build phase by using Cassidy as a foil is feasible, but there will come a point when he may have to go after the alternatives like Fleming. Reaching that point will require serious fundraising.

In the final analysis while the announcement slightly downgrades what was an excellent chance for Fleming to win, it makes Cassidy’s slim chances even slimmer. With no real shot for a Democrat to win (lightning won’t strike twice), the entrance of Miguez also ratchets up the intensity of a contest already off to an intense start.