Don’t write off the chances of Republican state Sen. Alan Seabaugh to become the next First District Attorney in 2027.

This week, Seabaugh will announce formally that he will purse the job of Caddo Parish district attorney, despite the fact that incumbent Democrat James Stewart, even if getting a bit long in the tooth by the end of the term when he will be approaching 80, shows every sign of seeking reelection. The news was met by some disparaging his chances.

That may not be a good bet. The uphill road that Seabaugh, or any white Republican, has to face is the parish as of late has turned to electing black Democrats, given that voter registration totals in the parish show whites with a majority of about 500 out of nearly 145,000 registrants in the foreground of a history of little black crossover voting but greater, if still small, white crossover voting. Stewart gained the office in a special election in 2015 over a white Republican but was reelected even more comfortably in 2020 over a white Democrat, while the only other parish-wide office focusing on public safety, sheriff, saw in 2024 a narrow win by black Democrat Henry Whitehorn over white Republican John Nickelson.

Yet digging deeper into those examples shows Seabaugh’s chances should be written off at one’s own peril, beginning with the fact that Seabaugh is a tremendous campaigner. In his first race he challenged a well-heeled incumbent state senator who spent over $300,000–or more than three times his amount–yet he lost by only a couple of thousand votes. Three years later he convincingly won his next contest, for the House, and hasn’t looked back. His last election, to the Senate, was his most impressive. Targeted by various interests who corralled famed basketball coach Mike McConathy to run against him for the open seat and who threw money at McConathy, Seabaugh still outraised him, pulling in $440,000 and winning by nearly double digit percentage points.

Leveraging the 2026 election can also work in Seabaugh’s favor. Recently, higher stimulus elections have favored Republican candidates and causes, and 2026 might work out that way with a Senate contest topping the ballot. Also becoming true in recent years is that Senate contests now rival gubernatorial races in general election turnout, trailing only presidential election turnout (by over 20 points). That burgeoning tendency proved to be the case in the sheriff’s race, where Republican turnout was several points higher than that of Democrats, but Nickelson lost because he underperformed among blacks and Whitehorn overperformed among whites.

Crossover voting could defeat Seabaugh the same way – except Seabaugh has at least one ready-made issue that not only could discourage that but also can moot Stewart’s incumbency advantage. While DAs prosecute both criminal and civil cases, it’s the former that catches people’s attention, and Seabaugh practices law on the civil side, so only Stewart can draw on that resource as a selling point.

Except that Seabaugh can hit Stewart with the “progressive prosecutor” label, which although Stewart has been tagged as such he has never embraced it. And the data lend credence to that view, as, during his second term especially, Stewart has turned down the tap on criminal prosecutions even as the crime rate soared and still remains higher than during his first term, inviting the dangerous inference that his laxity in delivering criminal charges is the cause of increased crime.

That issue by itself not only can boost GOP turnout but also can reassure Republicans that Seabaugh, who will run on a law-and-order platform, is the guy to fix the problem, making them less likely to defect as they did with Nickelson, who had no law enforcement experience and seemed unconvincing about full-throated support for gun rights (not a problem with Seabaugh). His past prowess at fundraising – and a lead in that department as at the end of 2024 he had $123,000 bankrolled already compared to $115,000 for Stewart – will ensure that message gets out.

The registration numbers aren’t in his favor, but campaigns win elections. And Seabaugh has the pedigree and ammunition to run a campaign that can overcome this disadvantage. If so, his far-flung Senate district will have its next election several months in advance of its normal occurrence.