Earlier this week John Bel Edwards ended months of speculation along the lines of his candidacy for the Senate race against incumbent Bill Cassidy next year. Edwards had an awful lot of people thinking he was in, and then all of a sudden he was out…

After much speculation, John Bel Edwards — a Democrat who defied near-universal predictions by being elected governor twice in the reliably red state of Louisiana — announced on Monday that he will not run for the U.S. Senate.

The announcement ended months of guessing whether the former governor would enter the 2026 race, hurting Democratic hopes of finding the right candidate to flip Louisiana’s Republican seat, currently held by U.S. Sen Bill Cassidy. But in a post on the social platform X, Edwards said that after “careful consideration” he decided that “now is not the right time to re-enter public office.”

“After eight years in the Governor’s Office, and with two grandbabies at home, we’re committed to being the best Papa and Nonna we can be,” Edwards, 59, said about himself and his wife.

Edwards, who vacated the governor’s office in 2024 due to term limits, said that during next year’s Senate election he hopes voters ”will reject the extremist politicians that have paralyzed progress in this nation.”

“I’m going to do all I can as a private citizen to advance that cause,” Edwards concluded.

Among the Republicans so far challenging Cassidy are State Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. President Donald Trump and Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry have also reportedly discussed the possibility of a challenge from U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow.

It is unclear what Democrat will step up to run, in what is sure to be an uphill battle in a state where voters overwhelmingly backed Trump in the last three presidential votes.

Does this change the race a lot?

Well…

Edwards is the only Democrat in Louisiana who can make a credible case for his capability to win an election statewide in Louisiana, because he did it twice.

That said, the federal races and state races here have very different characters. It doesn’t make a lot of sense that they do, because governance is a pretty similar thing when it comes to state or federal issues. But Edwards was able to win two gubernatorial races with campaigns casting him more as a cultural figure (“him went to West Point!”) rather than a political/ideological one. Federal races in this state are ideological fights.

So now the speculation is that Edwards is full-bore running for a third term as governor in 2027, presumably under the notion that Jeff Landry is vulnerable and that he can win a jungle primary in 2027 just like he did in 2015 and 2019.

That’s a separate column, though I’d direct the reader to Mike Weinberger’s guest post here at The Hayride talking about what a good idea it would be for Landry and the state legislature to install closed party primaries in gubernatorial races either in the just-called special session or in next year’s regular session.

Anyway, without Edwards it looks pretty bleak for the Democrats in the 2026 Senate race. They’ve got a lot of unwanted toys to pick from – maybe Royce Duplessis or Gary Carter get in, or if and when the congressional map is redrawn one of the two likely-displaced congressmen, Troy Carter or Cleo Fields, could take one for the team and opt to lose a Senate race rather than a House race.https://www.wbrz.com/news/former-louisiana-gov-john-bel-edwards-a-democrat-says-he-will-not-run-for-us-senate/

Alternatively we could see one of their social media influencers like Dustin Granger or Gary Chambers getting in.

Either way, there won’t be a very heavy money train following the Democrats’ candidates next year, which means the GOP nominee won’t have to spend heavily in the general election. This is now a less-expensive race than previously thought.

That colors some other developments in the race, specifically on the Republican side where Bill Cassidy and Blake Miguez both put up some pretty impressive fundraising numbers.

Cassidy’s press release on Wednesday…

Today, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA), announced that his campaign raised $1.75 million across all entities in the third quarter of 2025, bringing his total cash on hand to $10 million. Contributions came from all 64 parishes, underscoring broad grassroots support and growing momentum statewide as Senator Cassidy heads into 2026.

“I’m deeply grateful for the support from Louisianians in every corner of our state,” said Dr. Cassidy. “I thank all those from across our state who see that my work for Louisiana and with President Trump is delivering results for individuals, families, and Louisiana.”

Cassidy’s Q3 performance continues his strong track record of fundraising success. Cycle to date, he has raised over $15 million total, reflecting sustained enthusiasm for his re-election.

“Support from all 64 parishes confirms that Louisiana is united behind Senator Cassidy,” said Katie Larkin, Cassidy for Senate Campaign Manager. “He’s built an unmatched statewide network and has the resources, support, and momentum to win. Louisianians know Senator Cassidy is delivering for them, and these numbers prove it.”

Senator Cassidy’s campaign enters the final quarter of 2025 with broad support from across Louisiana and the country. With endorsements from NRSC Chairman Tim Scott and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Cassidy continues to work alongside President Trump to deliver conservative results that matter to Louisiana families, workers, and small businesses.

If you look at Cassidy’s report, though, what you’ll see is it’s mostly out of state money and that $1.75 million number reflects a good bit of cash being shuffled around from PACs to his campaign. None of that is a real problem for him, as he’s got that money to spend and with the $10 million Cassidy has on hand his race is fully funded at this point.

But to be fair, so is Blake Miguez’. Here was Miguez’ release on Monday…

U.S. Senate candidate Blake Miguez dropped another dominant fundraising report this quarter – raising over $1.2 million and holding more than $2.5 million cash-on-hand, raising over $3 million in just over the first 100 days of being a U.S. Senate candidate. Contributions poured in from every one of Louisiana’s 64 parishes, including nearly 6,000 individual donors, proving that Miguez’s message is resonating loudly with Louisianians who are tired of talkers and ready for a MAGA fighter.

“Louisianians can spot the difference between the real deal and a phony a mile away,” said Miguez. “Bill Cassidy and his DC special interest-funded con job campaign isn’t fooling anyone. Our momentum is surging because Louisiana voters know I’m the candidate that will stand up to the DC Swamp and never become part of it. Our campaign’s built by real people who work hard, love this state, and are ready to fight for our values and President Trump’s America First agenda. We have – and will continue to grow – the resources we need to defeat Bill Cassidy and the DC Swamp.”

A world champion marksman, small-business owner, and current State Senator, Blake Miguez has made his campaign a rallying point for everyday conservatives who believe in hard work, strong faith, and true American grit. With momentum surging from both the grassroots and donor class, Miguez’s campaign continues to prove he’s a fast-rising Republican star and the one Louisiana conservatives trust to bring backbone — not betrayal — to Washington.

“Right now, our country is in a fight for its soul,” Miguez continued. “They’re coming after our faith, our families, and our freedoms. They mock believers, censor patriots, and are even turning to physical violence against us. But we won’t back down. I’m a loud, proud, and unafraid conservative – and Louisiana is ready for a fighter who hits back. Our numbers don’t lie. This state is going to send a true MAGA conservative who won’t blink, back up, or bow down.”

In his first report after only 13 days as a U.S. Senate candidate, Miguez led all challengers in fundraising and the entire Republican field in Q2 individual contributions, including Bill Cassidy.

$2.5 million on hand is probably enough to win a party primary and runoff, and with a low-dollar Democrat in the general election that’s really all which will matter. Everything above $2.5 million in a Louisiana race really just makes the consultants rich.

And Miguez is actually using Cassidy’s fundraising against him. A release the campaign put out on Thursday…

Just two days after U.S. Senate candidate Blake Miguez announced a dominant $1.2 million third-quarter fundraising haul, Bill Cassidy has filed his own report — and the contrast is clear.

According to official FEC filings, Miguez nearly doubled what Cassidy’s campaign managed to scrape in, reporting $1.2 million to Cassidy’s $750,000. Cassidy’s campaign struggled to find any support in Louisiana, collecting a total of just over $25,000 from fewer than 25 individual in-state donors, relying instead on transfers, out-of-state elites, and the D.C. Swamp in a desperate attempt to inflate his numbers and hide his lack of support.  Miguez meanwhile received donations from nearly 6,000 contributors, including Louisianians from all 64 parishes.

The filings make one thing clear: Louisiana is behind Miguez as he dominated Cassidy’s campaign fundraising in his first 100 days.

“D.C. is floating Bill Cassidy’s campaign, and he’s using D.C. math to make it look like he’s not flailing,” said Miguez. “The reality is simple – we crushed him in fundraising this quarter. Thousands of Louisianians stepped up for our campaign, while Cassidy went back to his D.C. handlers to prop him up. He couldn’t even find a few dozen people back home willing to write him a check.

“He might as well stay in D.C. once we retire him for good.”

In just 100 days, Miguez has rocketed to the top of the U.S. Senate field in Louisiana, proving that his home-grown America-First campaign has the support, message, and momentum to take on Cassidy and his Washington establishment.

“Cassidy’s flailing. We’re surging,” Miguez added. “This race is between me and Cassidy — and Louisianians know who’s fighting for them. They’re making it clear they want their U.S. Senator to stand with President Trump and fight for the America First agenda. With Louisianians behind us, we’re locked in and laser-focused on winning.”

Cassidy’s people would dispute the idea that he’s flailing, but on the other hand the fact that Miguez is outpacing him in getting individual donations and lining up a whole lot of the big conservative contributors in the state already does lend a bit of Establishment-vs-Conservative character to the race.

And Cassidy’s messaging, which touts his deep loyalty and indispensable value to President Trump, might actually make Miguez stronger. The problem with that message is that the people who value loyalty to Trump are motivated to get Cassidy out of office thanks to his vote to impeach Trump in 2021. He could spend $100 million on that message and all it’ll do is further infuriate those folks.

What we don’t know yet is whether this is just a Cassidy-Miguez race. The money so far says it will be, but John Fleming, Eric Skrmetta and a St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman named Kathy Seiden, plus three other less-knowns, are also in it. We’re not totally discounting the idea one of them could get headway.

But the point is, with Edwards out of the race this thing will be decided in the GOP primary. And it’s starting to look like a Cassidy-Miguez race.