And now, the Louisiana Senate race of this year gets really interesting.

The contest seemed pretty much set in its field at last summer’s end. Five Republicans emerged – incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy, state Rep. Julie Emerson, Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta – that had the chops to win it all. Most likely, Cassidy would make the semi-closed primary runoff against one of the other four, who then would be favored over Cassidy, given the sourness among Republicans over Cassidy’s reversal to vote to convict GOP Pres. Donald Trump on half-baked impeachment charges, as well as concerning his sucking up on various pieces of legislation to the Democrat majorities in the first part of the decade. That challenger then easily would claim the seat in November.

Among those contenders, all vied for Trump’s endorsement, which is thought to convey an almost unimpeachable advantage to whoever receives it. However, concerning incumbents of his party that have displeased him running for reelection, Trump had not endorsed any challengers although, as in the case of Cassidy, he also withheld endorsements of some incumbents. Absent that, Fleming, who once worked for Trump as one of his senior White House aides, was considered in the best position to be viewed as the candidate Trump would implicitly back, although Miguez has played up his association with Trump’s policies as often as he can.

That all changed this past weekend when Trump stunningly announced he would like to see Republican Rep. Julia Letlow in the Senate. Despite multiple opportunities to announce it, Letlow had demurred on running and, in fact given her friendship with Emerson, when Emerson jumped into the contest as the last major candidate, it was assumed Letlow had closed the door on the possibility. In response to Trump saying he’d back her, Letlow said she appreciated the sentiment and remarked noncommittally about how the state deserved conservative Senate leadership.

Letlow faces considerable disincentives to running, even with Trump’s nod in hand. Qualifying begins in about three weeks with the election just four months away, an incredibly compressed window in which to open a statewide campaign apparatus. She has a good war chest of about $2.3 million, but that might not even be enough without finding donors already considerably hit up by the others to catch up in a statewide race at this late date over a year behind Fleming’s start, months behind others, and with Cassidy sitting on $9.5 million. Moreover, she would lose her sure seat in the House and foment discord among some state party activists and elected officials.

But if she entered with adequate resources, she likely becomes the favorite. More than any other candidate, she can peel votes from Cassidy, whose chances of missing the runoff would go from low to significant. Her CPAC voting rating both in 2024, where the Republican House average was 78, and lifetime is 74, well below that of Fleming’s (the only challenger to serve in Congress) over 96 lifetime and actually under Cassidy’s 78 lifetime, although he scored only 59 in 2024, where 100 is the maximal conservative score. However, with Trump’s imprimatur, she can grab enough more conservative voters to edge out other challengers in the primary and/or runoff, and almost certainly would defeat Cassidy either way.

Even if she doesn’t enter, the race has changed significantly. It means Trump will not convey an advantage to any candidate, punctuated by the fact that Cassidy becomes the first GOP Senate incumbent running he has explicitly endorsed against. Yet that disruption will be nothing compared to if she does enter the fray, leaving state politics watchers, politicians, consultants, and journalists on tenterhooks until she says or does something one way or the other.