Some folks seem genuinely surprised that voters, even in reliably conservative/Republican States like Ohio and Texas, are leaning towards the Democrats in this year’s elections for the federal government. The reasons for that aren’t a profound mystery, but to find them we have to go back to the 2024 presidential election.

In that election, folks were surveying the nightmarish years of the Biden presidency – harsh covid measures, rampant inflation, DEI reverse racism, the federal apparatus turned against parents who attended school board meetings, pro-life advocates, and traditional Christians. Donald Trump was campaigning on a turn away from them and other destructive policies. And enough voters were persuaded that he offered a better path forward than Kamala Harris that he won the election. It wasn’t a landslide, but there were narrow victories in a lot of States. That closeness was further borne out by the small Republican margins in the federal House and Senate.

Trump’s second term got off to a good start, with promises to conduct his administration with class and competence and the signing of numerous beneficial executive orders on everything from ending support for transgenders in women’s sports to winding down a lot of the green energy sham. But then came the obstacles.

The first one was the dithering of the Republicans in Congress, whose only notable accomplishment the last two years was the One Big Beautiful Bill, which was mainly a tax relief bill.

Bureaucratic inertia and corporate influence have also stymied some of Trump’s promised reforms, particularly as it regards the health of US citizens. Whether it is Trump’s executive order granting immunity to Monsanto/Bayer for the illnesses caused by the herbicide glyphosate (used in Roundup weedkiller) or the EPA’s approval of dangerous pesticides or the same agency’s slow-walking of the regulation of PFAS contaminants, the MAHA agenda has seen very little advancement. There were thankfully a few changes as it regards vaccinations, but considering the scope of the health problems facing folks in the States, this is only nibbling around the edges.

The third obstacle was and is Pres Trump himself. He is a showman who enjoys being the center of attention. Instead of quietly and methodically implementing the agenda that he campaigned on once he was back in the White House, some of his key policies were implemented with a maximum of headline-generating visibility, which hampered their effectiveness.

Immigration enforcement is a case-in-point. There didn’t need to be hundreds of ICE agents on the streets in Leftist cities to remove the illegal immigrants. But Trump the Performer sent them out anyway, which made them easy targets for unhinged protestors. The confrontations have led to unnecessary injuries and deaths, and the unfortunate sapping of support for forced deportations.

Tariffs are another. Instead of a slow, sensible, rational implementation, we’ve gotten unpredictable, on-and-off again variability, which makes them easier for opponents to criticize and challenge.

The coup de grâce is the war in Iran. After making such a fuss about ending wars on the campaign trail, Trump has done quite the opposite in the Middle East. The justification given for the new war was muddled and confused, and the effects have hurt people all over the world. It isn’t just disruption of crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz that are causing problems, either. That area is also a major producer of fertilizer for farmers in multiple countries and helium needed for high-tech manufacturing. The convergence of all of this disorder is leading to higher prices for everything from gasoline and diesel to chicken meat and clothes and housing. The Trump administration has tried its hardest to distract from those rising prices by touting new investments, etc., but that is a losing effort: People feel those price increases every day of every week.

A lot of voters in the United States aren’t highly ideological in their choice of candidates to support. They will usually vote for whoever gives them a better feeling of security and hope in the future. Trump and the Republicans in Congress had a great opportunity to implement some far-reaching reforms but have mostly squandered it thanks to resistance from the inside and from a lot of unforced errors of their own. As a result, all the States could be saddled with a Congress controlled by the Left until at least 2028, as the unaligned voters turn back to the Democrats to give them their longed-for release from anxiety.

But even the 2028 election could prove difficult for Republicans, as JD Vance will be carrying the baggage of an unpopular Trump presidency and other good candidates like Ron DeSantis lack the charisma and other physical features (like height, per Jose Miguel) that could help them in this era of televised politics.

Donald Trump has brought some significant changes to politics in the States. He has campaigned on a number of good things, but he lacks the focus and discipline needed to implement them. But the end is not yet. Whatever happens on Nov. 3rd, he will still have two years in which he can effect good federal policy. For that to happen, however, it would be advisable for him to appoint a skilled political executive like Gov DeSantis to be his chief of staff with broad authority to direct affairs within the executive branch, while he limits himself to more of an outward-facing role of dealing with the press, foreign leaders, etc.

The declining popularity of Republicans therefore isn’t an unsolvable riddle. That phenomenon is simply following the pattern established in past elections: Voters want a sense of stability and optimism from those they elect. Trump promised those things to them, but he has not kept his pledge to them very well. He can change the outcome if he would show humility, repentance, contrition, and those sorts of things, if he would change direction on some of his policies, particularly the Iran war, which has been hammering his approval ratings. But Mr Trump, not being a very strong Christian, may not have the spiritual maturity to do that. So much the worse for all of us if he hasn’t.

State and local officials, we may need your leadership more than ever very soon. Be ready.