U-Haul’s annual study of net migration came out last week, and there is slightly better news for Louisiana.

But it isn’t what you’d call good news.

Louisiana continues to grapple with significant population losses, according to a recent analysis by the Tax Foundation combining U.S. Census Bureau data with commercial datasets from U-Haul and United Van Lines.

The findings highlight troubling trends for the Pelican State, which continues to rank poorly across multiple metrics of interstate migration.

Between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, Louisiana ranked 44th in U.S. Census Bureau data for net domestic migration. The state also performed poorly in commercial sales reports: 44th in U-Haul’s inbound-to-outbound move ratio and 37th in United Van Lines’ metrics

These rankings place Louisiana among the states most affected by outbound migration.

Louisiana’s population decline has been a persistent issue. The state saw its population peak at 4.65 million in 2020, only to lose over 84,000 residents in the years that followed. Although 2024 projections show a slight increase to 4.6 million — up from 4.59 million in 2023—this comes after years of steady decline.

Between 2021 and 2022, Louisiana experienced its largest annual population loss, dropping by 0.8%. Notably, central and northeastern regions bore the brunt of this decline. Caddo Parish alone saw its population decrease by over 11,000 people in the past three years, while Plaquemines Parish lost 2.39% of its population and $16 million in adjusted gross income.

Despite these statewide losses, southeastern parishes such as East Baton Rouge, Ascension and Livingston bucked the trend with population growth.

The guess here is that the worst is over. Louisiana’s legislature passed a raft of decent tax reform proposals in a special session in November, and crime – one driver of outmigration – has begun to come down in most of the state’s largest cities. The election of Sid Edwards as Baton Rouge’s new mayor will likely do a lot for economic development in the capital area, as will the ongoing formation of the city of St. George as an economic engine for growth.

Let’s not forget that the better part of 200,000 people left Louisiana in net outmigration over the eight years John Bel Edwards was governor of this state. That isn’t something you can turn around immediately. But Louisiana was 45th in last year’s study and we’re 44th this year, so at least things aren’t getting worse.

A lot more needs to be done, though.

We need the oil and gas business to roar back to life in this state, something which will depend to a degree on continuing reforms in tax and regulatory policy. Industrial construction is likely to have to play into the state’s economic success, as it did when Bobby Jindal was governor and more than $150 billion in industrial projects filled our economic pipeline. We’re beginning to see some of that coming back, with major data center projects announced in Richland Parish east of Monroe and in St. Francisville, as well as that $6 billion Hyundai steel plant in Ascension Parish that was announced this week. With Joe Biden finally going away and a certain likelihood that Donald Trump will lift Biden’s moratorium on LNG export facility construction, Lake Charles’ economy is likely to spring back to life with liquified natural gas facilities so that Louisiana will take its place as a leader in energy exports to Europe and elsewhere.

And Trump’s tariffs against China and other countries should favor Louisiana agriculture. For example, the shrimp and crawfish industries will likely benefit from a respite from predatory foreign competition and that might give some breathing room for local fishermen and processors to make a profit again.

Still, we’re behind many of our southern neighbors in making the kinds of quality-of-life policies which attract productive citizens, and it’s a little like playing football in the NFC North – if you’re not really, really good, you can’t survive in this division:

For Louisiana, the migration trends are especially concerning when compared to its Southeastern neighbors.

While Florida and Texas gained significant numbers of new residents, Louisiana joined Mississippi as one of the region’s few states to suffer net population losses.

Between 2021 and 2022, Louisiana’s net migration loss totaled 26,000 residents, equating to a 0.57% population decline and an $880 million hit to adjusted gross income.

Experts point to Louisiana’s tax policies and economic conditions as contributing factors to its population challenges. States with more competitive tax structures, such as Florida and Texas, have proven more attractive to movers.

Recent efforts to reform tax structures, including simplifying income tax brackets, have been steps in the right direction. However, experts worry that without broader reforms, improving education and providing more economic diversification, Louisiana risks falling further behind its regional and national peers.

Again – we’re paying for the sins of eight years of John Bel Edwards, in which Louisiana was going in the wrong direction while our neighbors were consistently getting it right. And it’s not easy to turn around the perception of this place as undesirable even after the reality begins to change.

What happened on Bourbon Street on New Year’s Eve, and the fact that the city leaders thoroughly botched the security arrangements doesn’t help.

Still, the trend is beginning to turn. A year from now it’s more likely than not that these numbers will be better.