UPDATE (2:08 p.m., 7/8/25): The official death count is now 109 and expected to rise slightly. Flash Flood Watches have expired as relief efforts continue.

What started as just another monsoon season-like rain event in Central Texas quickly turned into a national tragedy.

The official death toll in the July Fourth floods jumped to 43 as of Saturday evening, local officials announced during a news conference, via the Texas Tribune. Among the dead were 15 children and 28 adults. Twelve adults and 5 children are still unidentified.

Many of the deceased were young girls from a camp along the bucolic Guadalupe River, as a slow-moving thunderstorm unexpectedly grew from summer thunderstorm to a deluge of 3 trillion gallons of water and four months of rainfall in four hours.

Here’s a time lapse of the stagnant thunderstorm complexes in Texas that dumped 10-15 inches of rain in 6 hours.

Some locations saw roughly 4 months’ worth of rain in 4 hours.

Horrific situation unfolding with dozens missing. pic.twitter.com/RovujngeTc

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) July 5, 2025

While the National Weather Service announced a flash flood warning in advance of the ginormous dumper of a storm, camp staff — at least two of whom died — were unprepared for such a sudden surge of water activity.

Abbott issued a disaster declaration for six Central Texas counties. He requested that President Donald Trump declare the situation a federal disaster, allowing for more federal resources. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who also attended the news conference, said Trump indicated he would approve the request, according to the Texas Tribune.

In 36 hours, first responders rescued more than 850 people, some clinging to trees to stay safe amid the rising water, Abbott said.

Social media provided looks at tiny hamlets completely washed off the map and even a historic iron bridge that floated downstream as if it were a boat. Surreal footage of swimming holes turned into overpass-threatening surges dominated news feeds.

Certain elements of the local mainstream press that believe their job is to affect public policy (rather than cover it) were quick to point a finger at a possible lack of warning, or whether DOGE-like cuts were to blame. Still others defended the warnings given.

All I'll say is this. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for Kerr County more than 12 hours ahead of the catastrophic flood. A flash flood warning was issued for Hunt & Ingram 3 HOURS before the Guadalupe started to climb.

They did their job and they did it well

— Avery Tomasco (@averytomascowx) July 5, 2025

Earlier models had predicted maybe 3 inches of water — perhaps six. But in “Flash Flood Alley” as the area is known it is often difficult to predict just how much water will fall, especially when combined with tropical moisture coming from the south and Mexico. Some areas are reporting over 20 inches. For a great read on this “inland hurricane” see here.

Our hearts are with those impacted by the Central Texas floods. I thank Gov. Abbott, state officials, and the U.S. Coast Guard for their swift, heroic response.

President Trump is committed to deploying all federal resources to unify families, rescue the missing, and return… pic.twitter.com/yUa4yNd4SW

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) July 5, 2025

 

Flood watches continue through Sunday evening, with downriver reservoirs playing a big factor in just how much more flooding Central Texans can expect.

From the hip

Expect man-made climate change to be the big narrative from the Left as the ground dries out, even as the family of flood victims mourn. Equally disgusting was how quick local media already was to blame government austerity for an alleged “lack” of warning.

But there are some bright spots that need to remain the focus here, despite any future calls for better processes. According to Noem, Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer and Petty Officer Scott Ruskin “directly saved an astonishing 165 victims in the devastating flooding in central Texas. This was the first rescue mission of his career and he was the only triage coordinator at the scene. Scott Ruskin is an American hero.”

There are accounts of Eagle Scouts rescuing campers within the rafters of camp cabins floating away, and passers-by risking their lives to form human chains to rescue the drowning. Stories of heroics will come out of this, as will news of an immediate end to drought conditions in the western portion of the Texas Hill Country.

That’s the good news, which of course does not outweigh the tremendous heartbreak most everyone is feeling tonight.

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