SADOW: Not So Crazy Miguez Entry Hikes CD 5 Craziness

The craziness of Louisiana’s Fifth Congressional District got taken up a notch when Republican state Sen. Blake Miguez bailed on the state’s Senate contest to toss his hat – a considerable distance, since his domicile is well out of the district – into the ring of this race, an idea which actually isn’t so crazy.

The base craziness now elevated comes from the district itself being on life support, almost certainly to be dismembered in large part for the 2028 elections after the U.S. Supreme Court (in a delayed, Solomonic response designed not to upset maps too abruptly across many states prior to this year’s elections) will decide the current state map is unconstitutional. That inevitability opened the floodgates for candidates wanting to get in on the ground floor for a congressional career after its incumbent GOP Rep. Julia Letlow made a surprise bid for the Senate, and apparently, among others, drove Miguez from that race.

Because of the bizarre shape of the district, which starts in the Florida parishes, heads west to part of Baton Rouge, then swings north up the Mississippi River to clip Alexandria and concludes by grabbing a piece of Monroe on the way to the Arkansas line, a wide range of candidates have expressed they will run or appear poised to do so. As Scott McKay observes, some candidates involved have tenuous connections to the district, which constitutionally is not a hindrance to qualifying for the contest, but does create opportunities for their opponents to highlight their candidacies as disconnected from the district, if not blatantly opportunistic.

Opportunity, because whoever nabs the seat will be in the catbird seat with the looming redraw of the map. Democrat Rep. Cleo Fields’ second time around in Washington will end as shortly as did his first when he’s thrown to the reapportionment wolves, and whoever triumphs will angle to have the Legislature pass a map with a district more geographically-centered around himself, if for no other reason than it will cut down on campaign media expenses. That’s why it’s important to win now, even if it requires running in a district in some cases poorly built for their candidacies.

Again, non-residency isn’t an automatically disqualifying factor. Republican Rep. Clay Higgins lives just outside of the Third District that he has won several times with ease, which is why Miguez, who lives in it, would hesitate to channel his ambitions in that direction. At the start of his 16 years in Congress, GOP former Rep. Jim McCrery didn’t live in his district, either, yet slipped past hometown favorite, now Public Service Commissioner, Democrat Foster Campbell, in his initial run.

However, Miguez lives far from the current district boundaries, far enough away that it would be difficult to draw a district around New Iberia that still would allow for a majority-minority district between Baton Rouge and New Orleans without causing heartburn among the three senior Republicans in the House with the machinations that would have to occur, if not producing a district so oddly shaped (see, for example) that it might not pass constitutional muster. And he would have little in the way of a natural constituency of donors to draw upon from the district, something to consider as his switch does not reset limits placed upon donors who already contributed to his defunct Senate campaign from the broader statewide base.

That means his fundraising is going to drop off significantly. Then again, with $3.6 million in the bank already, along with some self-financing capacity and a smaller footprint to cover, that will be a minor problem. And, there’s the in-your-face factor compelling him to make this switch: Miguez and Republican Gov. Jeff Landry have flapped up some dust from time to time, so when Landry swiftly backed Letlow for Senate—in part as a way to deny Miguez that post—Miguez can get back at him by running for the House.

The fact is (as no doubt bagman Fields, knowing he was a dead congressman walking as soon as he ran for the job, believes), two years in the House is better than zero. If Miguez sees this as his best shot to roam the Capitol for many years to come if he can get that first term, he’s going to take it, and his already-accrued name recognition plus pecuniary resources makes him a serious one for CD 5.

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