As you might imagine, it’s the dirty race that’s the cliffhanger. From the press release on the poll…
A new Louisiana poll of likely run-off election voters was released today, showing John Kennedy continuing to hold a solid lead over Foster Campbell for U.S. Senate. Mike Johnson holds an impressive lead over his opponent for U.S. Congress in District 4, Marshall Jones. Scott Angelle has gained on his competitor, Clay Higgins and is now within 3 points. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), recognized for having the best polling in the 2016 battleground states and electoral college projection, conducted the poll from December 5th through December 6th.
The results show Kennedy leading with 55.88% to Campbell’s 39.77%. TFG surveyed over 2,500 likely run-off election voters using a random sample of registered voters in Louisiana. The survey was stratified to reflect the expected election demographics in Louisiana. The margin of error is +/- 1.96.
The survey also showed Higgins leading Angelle 49.14% to 46.34% in LA U.S. House District 3, while Johnson is leading Jones 67.04% to 29.73% in LA U.S. House District 4.
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “Kennedy is still clearly in control of the U.S. Senate race. The Democratic efforts statewide are nowhere near enough to counteract the positive impact that the Pence and likely Trump visit will have on Kennedy’s ‘Get Out The Vote’ efforts.”
Cahaly also stated, “In the 4th, Johnson’s consolidation of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who supported Trump seems to be complete. As with the U.S. Senate race, the Republican victory is basically assured.”
Cahaly concluded, “Then of course there is the 3rd district. In the third district, there is a different type of battle brewing. Higgins holds a double digit lead among registered Republicans and independents, while Angelle leads Higgins among registered Democrats by more than 25%. The universe of Trump style voters remain squarely in Higgins’ camp, but frustrated establishment and non-Trump Democrats and Republicans have aligned behind Angelle. The most important question now is whether those empowered Trump voters will turn out again and whether the Louisiana December surprises affect either side. But history teaches us when there is a Christmas-time Saturday Louisiana run-off on a race this tight, there are only four words that matter: Get Out The Vote. The team that does that best will win the 3rd district.”
Here’s the link to the full report on the poll.
Trafalgar’s previous poll on the race, which was released three weeks ago, showed Higgins with a 50-42 lead on Angelle. Now it’s 49-46. This looks like it will come down to the wire. Kennedy was ahead 58-35, so Campbell has made up a little bit of ground on him. And Johnson was beating Jones 60-35, so he’s really blown the doors open.
In all, the poll makes clear something we’ve seen coming for a while – the 4th District race and the Senate race are foregone conclusions. Higgins and Angelle are in a knife fight. And we don’t have any polling on the mayor’s race in Baton Rouge but it’s also down to the wire.