An expected runoff win for a border-area GOP congressional incumbent became almost certain after an endorsement by Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday.

Abbott endorsed U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales in the Republican primary runoff — much-needed ammo for the incumbent against those who have charged he is insufficiently conservative and those who are behind Second Amendment proponent Brandon Herrera, “the AK Guy” on social media and streaming video.

In a media statement, Abbott had much praise for Iraq War Navy veteran Gonzales, who is seeking a third term after succeeding Republican Will Hurd.

“Tony Gonzales is a fierce champion for bolstering border security measures in Congress,” Abbott said in the release. “He represents more than two-thirds of the Texas-Mexico border and knows the dangerous consequences that President Joe Biden’s reckless open border policies have on our state—and our nation. I know Tony will continue the fight in our nation’s capital to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorists, re-instate the Remain in Mexico policies, and deport people who illegally enter our country.”

The district, which runs from El Paso to just outside of San Antonio, has been central in national politics as record numbers of illegal immigrants have been allowed into the country by the Biden Administration. Immigration continues to be a top concern for voters, especially for Republicans, often eclipsing many other conservative issues.

The Republican Primary Runoff in Texas is set for May 28, with early voting taking place in a brief window between May 20-24.

From the hip: Abbott endorsements, along with those from embattled Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, were a key factor in the 2024 Primary — but in a rather opposite way.

Abbott endorsed numerous challengers for Texas legislative seats against incumbents who would not support his school choice goals in the 88th Legislature (2023). Seven Abbott-backed challengers won their primary, five are going to runoff, and only two lost their primary.

That’s makes an Abbott endorsement a boon to just about any campaign by most measures. Exactly how much of a boon it will be for an incumbent and on the Congressional level has yet to be seen. But it’s going to be a benefit one way or the other. Let’s take a look at why:

Herrera continues to rally the right-hand side of the aisle, recently enlisting populist conservative bomb-thrower U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz for a fundraiser. However, it should be noted Herrera only received 25% of the vote in the primary — enough to force a runoff in a crowded field, but an uphill climb for the challenger in a one-on-one race. Abbott’s endorsement of Gonzales is therefore a safe bet for the governor, and with Abbott’s nod it’s a safe bet for anyone placing wagers on this year’s runoff.

Herrera recently tweeted “It’s funny that 3 months ago I was ‘just a YouTuber’ and ‘not a serious candidate’ This week I forced the Speaker of the House to fly to TX to campaign for my opponent, desperate to keep his job. When your enemies are circling the wagons, it’s usually not a sign they’re winning” [sic.]

That may very well be in some cases, but Abbott has one mighty big wagon.

As for the district itself, TX-23 has been in play since recent political memory, but lately has trended Republican. It was held exclusively by Democrats until the 1992 cycle when Republicans started making inroads in the Lone Star State as Southern conservatives began leaving what was once the solid Party of the South. Republican Henry Bonilla‘s surprise defeat of Albert Bustamante kicked off a series of see-saw elections in the district, with a heavy Republican section of San Antonio a factor in the largely rural district (and one in which it is notoriously difficult to campaign due to its size, desert geography, and numerous population centers). Hurd and Gonzales seem to have broken the see-saw effect with six terms won between them for the GOP side.

Gonzales is heavily favored over Democratic nominee Santos Limon, a business owner and civil engineer from Del Rio. If recent history and Republican and independent voter distaste for Biden’s immigration policies are any indicator, right-leaning voters will be more inclined to forgive Gonzales for any grievance and make this election once again a referendum on the border. Team Abbott sees that one coming a West Texas mile away, and they aren’t wasting any time.