Rasmussen has the first poll out in Wisconsin following the completion of the primary there, and the numbers are fascinating. Instead of the dead heat the polls have shown between incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican businessman Ron Johnson, the latter has now opened up a seven-point lead. Johnson has also topped 50 percent, sitting at a 51-44 advantage.
Johnson leads Feingold 50-43 when “leaners” are taken out of the numbers. Only four percent say they’re undecided.
Does this represent a bump for Johnson coming out of the GOP primary? Probably. But Feingold’s support has never been above 46 percent or so, and it looks as though he’s slipping as the election gets closer. And experience tells us when a challenger gets above 50 percent against a longtime incumbent, that incumbent’s goose is cooked unless the challenger collapses.
Wisconsin has long been a “bluish” state. Republicans have been competitive there, but generally fall just short of actually getting elected.
That looks like it’s changing. In fact, all over the Midwest the Democrats are in deep trouble.
Take the Wisconsin news with the rather startling revelation that Democrat polling outfit Public Policy Polling said yesterday in a Twitter update…
“Seems strange saying this but really doubt we’ll poll Ohio again this cycle.”
Ohio, the ultimate swing state in recent years, is no longer even competitive at this point. Quinnipiac released polls yesterday and today on the gubernatorial and senatorial races there, and Rob Portman now leads Lee Fisher 55-35 for the Senate seat while John Kasich has a 54-37 advantage over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland. Additionally, there’s talk about four Democrat congressmen – John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Mary Jo Kilroy and Betty Sutton – all getting beat this year. All four voted for Obamacare.
In Indiana, Dan Coats is cruising to an easy win over Democrat Brad Ellsworth for a Senate seat. At least one House Democrat – namely, Baron Hill – is likely a dead duck on Nov. 2.
In Illinois, Mark Kirk has now opened up a small lead over Alexi Giannoulias. Three House Democrats – Debbie Halvorsen, Phil Hare and Bill Foster – are either in trouble or likely done. Republican Bill Brady is trouncing Democrat incumbent Pat Quinn in the governor’s race.
In Michigan, Republican Rick Snyder is blowing out Democrat Virg Bernero by 20 points in the gubernatorial race. Neither Debbie Stabenow nor Carl Levin are up for the Senate – Stabenow will come up for re-election in 2012 and she’s almost certainly going to struggle to be re-elected – but three Democrat seats in the House could flip. Bart Stupak’s seat in the 1st District looks likely to go to Republican Dan Benishek, while incumbent Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters both look like roadkill.
Those are just some examples of major trouble brewing for Democrats in the Midwest. Others include Terry Branstad’s likely easy win over Democrat governor Chet Culver in Iowa, the carnage for the Democrats in the Dakotas and Roy Blount’s rather easy cruise to a Senate seat over Robin Carnahan.
UPDATE: Speaking of Halvorsen in Illinois, her supporters look a little “off.” But they might know it, since they don’t want to admit they’re her supporters…