2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

In 44 states, absentee voting is underway, while in person voting is underway in 28 states, including Louisiana. In other words, any campaign that isn’t in “Election Day mode” isn’t an effective campaign. As we mentioned last week, we are now making calls on races based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 7 days. Our rankings are based on the following criteria:

(1) Safe Democratic (dark blue on the map)/Safe Republican (dark red on the map) – either a candidate leads by 10 or more points, or a candidate has over 50% in polls;

(2) Lean Democratic (light blue on the map)/Lean Republican (light red on the map) – a candidate leads by 3-9 points;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – a candidate leads by less than 3 points;

(4) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2010 for this state (black)

Continue reading at http://winwithjmc.com/archives/1895

John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.