In our prior posting about the House races, we briefly analyzed the 2012 Presidential race through the lens of the electoral behavior of each state during midterm elections. We noted that “….At a minimum, the states which voted for McCain in 2008 are very unlikely to switch to Obama in 2012. States in the interior of the country (particularly those in the Midwest) which voted for Obama in 2008 are very shaky right now for the President. However, the fact that the GOP landslide was barely perceptible in the West Coast suggests that the President can still count on California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii, and he has an even shot at keeping Colorado and Nevada in his corner as well. On the Atlantic Coast, Obama can probably count on holding the New England states, except for New Hampshire and (possibly) Maine. He can also count on New York, Delaware, and Maryland, although Pennsylvania and New Jersey are question marks at this point…”
In this posting, we would like to graphically display what we said by showing both the 2008 electoral map and the 2012 projected electoral map.
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John Couvillon is a political consultant. His company is JMC Enterprises of Louisiana, Inc. with expertise in the data analysis aspects of political campaigns, such as poll sample development/analysis, development of targeted voter files for phone canvassing or mail outs, campaign strategy, and demographic consulting. See his site at WinWithJMC.com for more information.