A press release out of Rep. Bill Cassidy’s campaign indicates he’s gaining momentum in fundraising for his run against Mary Landrieu this year…
U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy. M.D. announced today that his campaign raised more than $1 million in Quarter 4. Cassidy currently has nearly $4.2 million cash on hand.
The support from within Louisiana has been terrific. In 2013, Cassidy raised $225,000 in grassroots donations ($100 or less) from donors in Louisiana.
“As I travel Louisiana, I talk to so many people who share my optimism that we can right the ship and get things working again. I am humbled and encouraged by the donations of my fellow Louisianans as we work together to bring Louisiana values to Washington. As your next U.S. Senator I will work to reduce the size of government so Louisianans can keep more of their hard-earned tax dollars,” says Rep. Bill Cassidy, M.D.
For historical comparison, Cassidy’s fourth quarter fundraising numbers are in league with U.S. Senator David Vitter’s in the fourth quarter of 2009. In 2009, the incumbent Vitter raised approximately $1.2 million and reported banking $4.5 million. In the fourth quarter 2007, Republican challenger State Treasurer John Kennedy raised $500,000 and had $460,000 on hand. The entire race Kennedy raised $4.8 million.
Cassidy isn’t at parity with Landrieu. Consider that the incumbent reported $5.7 million in the bank at the end of the 3rd quarter last year, and she took in $1.3 million in that quarter. It’s reasonable to assume that when Landrieu files her fourth quarter FEC report she’ll have significantly improved that $5.7 million war chest and likely took in not only more than Cassidy’s million-dollar figure but probably more than the $1.3 million she raised in the 3rd quarter.
That said, she also spent over $400,000 in the 3rd quarter. And given that Landrieu went up on the air in the 4th quarter with TV ads aimed at bragging about how she was working to “fix” Obamacare, which was supposedly a $250,000 expenditure all by itself, she probably burned through a good deal more than that 400K.
The dynamics of the race are such that Cassidy isn’t going to need to spend anything close to what Landrieu does. For one thing, there will be a ton of outside money coming into this race – Americans For Prosperity is cranking out TV spots one after another attacking Landrieu and splashing them all over Louisiana’s TV screens, as an example.
And for another, Landrieu has major problems in the polls. When you can’t get above 45 and you’re the incumbent, it’s going to take a LOT of money to win an election. You have to attempt to rehabilitate your image while at the same time destroying the credibility of your runoff opponent, which is likely to be Cassidy.
All he has to do is to stay somewhat on par with Landrieu from a fundraising perspective. If he can keep within $3 million or so of her before the primary, that’s enough to be competitive.
The million-dollar quarter, particularly as a rebound from a not-so-great $685,000 3rd quarter, shows such a competitiveness.