The press release…
Technology entrepreneur Paul Dietzel’s campaign released internal poll numbers this morning showing Dietzel pulling ahead of fmr. Gov. Edwin Edwards by nine points, 43% to 34%, in a hypothetical runoff election. The poll also shows Dietzel with a slim 18%-17% head-to-head lead over State Sen. Dan Claitor.
The release of this internal poll, conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling, follows the release of another poll conducted by lobbyist allies of Edwards which showed Edwards winning 43% of the “jungle primary” vote, followed by Claitor and Dietzel statistically tied at 20% and 19% respectively.
The poll also ran two head-to-head runoff election matchups: Claitor vs. Edwards and Garrett Graves vs. Edwards. The poll showed both matchups at a close 52% to 47% margin, with the Republican prevailing in both.
According to LA Politics, the pollster “said he did not expect Dietzel, the grandson and namesake of the famous former LSU football coach, to poll as high, so he did not include him in a hypothetical runoff.”
However, the Dietzel campaign’s release of their own head-to-head numbers reveals Dietzel has a commanding lead over Edwards in a runoff.
Dietzel released the following statement:
We are grateful for the tremendous support our campaign has received. It is evidence that a new generation of leadership is rising to the challenges our country faces at this critical time.
We have only just begun. There is more work to be done.
I have a vision for the future not an interest in the politics of the past. My focus is on a new generation of leadership for Louisiana and our nation.
The pollster in question is Darrell Glascock, who’s an interesting guy we’ve had around here forever in Louisiana and Arkansas.
Glascock told LAPolitics.com he thinks Edwards’ ceiling tops out around 47 percent. The guess here is that number is considerably lower, because an 86-year old convicted crook with a gold-digging attention whore of a trophy wife 50 years his junior is unlikely to survive the rigors of a seven-month congressional campaign without disaster striking (probably multiple times).
These two polls suggest to us that Edwards is basically a Democrat placeholder in the race. He’s likely to make the runoff, but whichever Republican – Dietzel, Graves, Claitor, maybe even Craig McCulloch – is in it with him is your new congressman from the 6th District.
It’ll be a fun race, though.