Diez Poll: Cassidy Has A 16 Point Lead On Landrieu

We’ve talked in the past about John Diez, the Prairieville-based polling guru of Magellan Strategies Baton Rouge, and the solid reputation his firm has put togther among politicos around the state.

What our readers might not know is that Diez, who did the internal polling for the Garret Graves campaign, had a frighteningly-accurate forecast of the 6th District race a week before election night.

Diez had that race as follows:

Edwards 29 (finished with 30)
Graves 24 (finished with 27)
Dietzel 13 (finished with 14)
Claitor 10 (finished with 10)
Whitney 6 (finished with 7)

That’s what’s known as one red-hot pollster.

So when Diez comes out with a poll today saying the Dec. 6 runoff in the Senate race is going to be a massive blowout for Bill Cassidy, unless some major intervening event were to happen between now and Election Day you can pack Mary Landrieu’s Senate office up and ship her belongings elsewhere.

The results:

diez poll 11-13 a


The poll has Landrieu with 88.8 percent of the black vote and Cassidy with 7.2 percent, which would represent something of an improvement for Cassidy given that he pulled three percent of the black vote on Nov. 4 according to the exit polls and Landrieu had 94 percent. Diez’ sample was 69 percent white and 27 percent black, which would indicate a bit whiter electorate than what turned out in the primary – but that’s what most folks expect.

But it also says Barack Obama is a colossal millstone around Landrieu’s neck – and so is Harry Reid…

diez poll 11-13 b


Interestingly enough, 51 percent of the respondents said they’re registered Democrats compared to 35 percent who said they’re Republicans – but when it comes to party ID that completely flips over and then some. Asked which party best represents their point of view, 62 percent said Republican compared to 38 percent who said Democrat.

This is a very, very red state – and it’s getting redder.

Landrieu’s favorable-unfavorable number is 36.8-56.7, which means she’s completely unelectable. Cassidy’s number is 46.6-38.0.

It must be said that Diez’ poll is an internal poll for Cassidy. Because of that there will be people who scoff at it.

But there were people who scoffed at his polling of the 6th District race. We’ll have a post in coming days about that, but let’s just say his results speak for themselves.

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