Scott wrote about the poll by the Southern Media and Opinion Research that was previewed last night in The Advocate. The race shows that John Kennedy has a narrow lead over Charles Boustany with Caroline Fayard and Foster Campbell knocking on the door.
Here are some takeaways.
*This is a five-man race, at most. There are only five serious candidates in the race, the four that have already been mentioned and John Fleming. Only John Fleming, who has 8.3%, has the money and the resources to break into the runoff.
*John Fleming’s campaign only has a few weeks of life left without a change in strategy. The next few weeks are critical for team Fleming. If I was them, I would throw everything I’ve got into a media blitz attacking Boustany, Campbell, and Fayard. That’s Fleming’s only chance at making the runoff and time is running out.
*Who are the undecideds? If the vast majority of the undecideds are Democratic-leaning voters such has been all year, then it will be a Republican vs Democrat in the runoff.
*Charles Boustany has to knock John Kennedy out. Charles Boustany’s best chance is in a runoff against one of the two Democrats. His best chance is to knock out John Kennedy and secure a runoff against a Democrat.
*It’s time for John Kennedy to spend money. Team Kennedy was hoping to not spend money until the runoff, but with this poll things have changed. Kennedy needs to start spending money, probably against Boustany because although you would favor Kennedy in a runoff against Boustany, his best shot is also against a Democrat.