A new poll is out from The Washington Post and Survey Monkey that shows Donald Trump crushing Hillary Clinton 49%-33% in a 4-way race. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 9% while Green Jill Stein gets 3%. Independent #NeverTrump candidate Evan McMullin, who is on the ballot in Louisiana, was not included in the poll.
In a 2-way race, Trump gets 53% while Hillary gets 38%. Either way, Donald Trump is well on his way to collecting all 8 of Louisiana’s electoral votes.
Trump’s strong performance in Louisiana is not really a surprise. Demographically, Louisiana should be one of Trump’s most favorable states. The state contains large numbers of white voters without college degrees that have been the backbone of Trump’s support. Louisiana also has a strong populist tradition, which makes it more receptive to Trump’s populist message.
There is also a less strong #NeverTrump movement in this state than in others. All of the state’s major Republican officials and candidates have endorsed Trump.
A 4-way race appears to benefit Trump in Louisiana. Hillary gains more support than Trump does once it is narrowed down a 2-way race. That has been consistent all over the country. Polls have continually shown that Gary Johnson draws support from voters who would support Hillary Clinton in a 2-way race and Louisiana appears to be no different.
The poll was done online over August 9th-September 1st and included a sample size between 546 and 5,147 respondents. Given Louisiana’s small size, it was likely on the lower end.