A new poll was just released in the Texas U.S. Senate race that shows U.S. Senator Ted Cruz leading Congressman Beto O’Rourke 47%-40%. This follows another poll last month that showed Cruz with a 3% lead over O’Rourke.
The poll was done by JMC Analytics for the Red Metrics Group. The poll surveyed 575 people and has a margin of error of 4.1%.
Here’s the write-up of the poll by The Hill:
If the election for the Senate seat were held today, 47 percent said they would support Cruz, compared to 40 percent who indicated support for O’Rourke, the JMC Analytics survey found. Seven percent were undecided.The latest numbers show a wider gap for Cruz than a survey released last month by Quinnipiac University that said the race was “too close to call” with Cruz just 3 points ahead.
O’Rourke has a better favorability rating than Cruz in Tuesday’s poll. Thirty-five percent of respondents said they have a favorable opinion of the congressman, compared to 20 percent who have an unfavorable one and 39 percent who said they have no opinion.
Forty-two percent said they have a favorable view of Cruz, while 44 percent view him unfavorably and 11 percent have no opinion.
Cruz is surprisingly competitive with the black vote, winning 29%. But he’s only picking up 30% of the Hispanic vote and 52% of the white vote.
O’Rourke leads Cruz among independents 45%-38%. O’Rourke must have a strong showing among indies to have a chance.
Both men are tied among women at 43%. But Cruz leads O’Rourke among men 52-37%.
Right now, it has to be said that Cruz is still the favorite to defeat O’Rourke. But there are some clear signs of weakness for Cruz.
First of all, his approval rating isn’t where it should be for an easy reelection. Being underwater, even if it’s just by 2%, has to be worrisome.
Second, O’Rourke is raking in the small dollar donations from progressives all across the country. This is a strong donor base that he can tap over and over again.
Third, we can’t discount Democratic enthusiasm this election cycle. The left is motivated to vote this year and they would love to have Ted Cruz’s scalp.
We don’t think that O’Rourke will defeat Cruz this year. But this race can quickly become a competitive one. Cruz will have to campaign hard to hold his seat.