Campaign finance disclosures, or sometime lack of these, give some clues as to whether wholesale changes may come to the Bossier Parish Police Jury’ composition staring next year.

While all but one incumbent chose to run for reelection, and a few didn’t draw an opponent, according to reports that detail spending and activity three challengers stand a decent chance of displacing an incumbent starting this week, and at least a couple more have an outside chance of doing so. The reports ten days prior to the general election cover an important period in local campaigns that demonstrate the seriousness of a candidacy and tactics used. For this level of races, the most effective campaigning is door-to-door canvassing, followed by direct mailing, eye-level signage (yard signs better than billboards), canvassing before groups such as at high school football games, display print advertising, and lastly electronic means such as ads and texting.

The reports show some vulnerable incumbents. District 1, with three challengers to Republican Bob Brotherton, has the most candidates but not much active campaigning. Only two have filed reports, with the incumbent not being one of them. That doesn’t mean campaigning isn’t going on – reports are necessary only if there is a donation the exceeds $200 or more than $2,500 spent – but that it is occurring at most at a low level, it at all.

According to that reporting, only Republican small businessman Michael Farris – almost exclusively with his own funds – has made an extensive campaigning effort with signage and canvassing. Brotherton, who has been ailing physically for an extended period that caused him to miss most Jury meetings this year, does have some signs up, as does Democrat trucking executive Andre Wilson. This makes Farris the most likely to knock off an incumbent this cycle.

As well placing emphasis on canvassing is District 12 Republican challenger small businessman Keith Sutton. He has raised about $8,000, almost all his own funds, and spent most on signage, mailings, and canvassing. By contrast, Republican incumbent Mac Plummer, while reporting raising about half that much money from himself, has not spent any even as yard signs of his have appeared. Unless these are leftovers from his 2015 or earlier campaigns, that would indicate failure to properly file campaign expenditures. Sutton’s activity suggests he also stands a good chance of toppling an incumbent.

Also very competitive is Republican former juror Barry Butler, challenging the incumbent with perhaps the most extensive campaign infrastructure, Republican Julianna Parks in District 5. Butler’s largely self-financed campaign has been all-of-the-above, a mix of electronic contact, eye-level signage, and canvassing. Parks has raised and spent almost as much, with a higher proportion coming from donors with heavy representation from the Bossier political establishment and attorneys (she is one and her husband Santi is the elected Bossier City Court judge), with more emphasis placed on electronic contact. This looks to become the highest-spending contest, by far.

Another challenger making a concerted effort is Republican former executive director of the Cypress Black Bayou Recreation and Water Conservation District Robert Berry. In District 6, he has sunk over $7,000 of his own money into canvassing, signage, and mail. Incumbent Republican Chis Marsiglia didn’t file the latest report due, but a previous report shows about $1,500 spent on small amounts of signage and mail (with all $4,000 in donations from firms connected to politically-active businessman Jerry Juneau).

And while demographics suggest an uphill battle for her, District 9 Republican challenger Pam Glorioso is making a go at it against Democrat incumbent Charles Gray. Until recently chief executive officer of Bossier City, she has drawn over $7,000 in donations mainly from the Bossier political establishment in a reversal of the trend in other contests spent mainly on electronic and mail contact and signage. Gary didn’t turn in the most recent required report, but previously had raised almost as much but concentrated on advertising.

Perhaps banking on name recognition, former school board member Democrat Julius Darby has done much visible campaigning with no finance reporting – his older brother Jerome gave up the District 10 seat after 40 years. Retiree Democrat James Carley did file to show some signage and canvassing activity, while another retiree Democrat Mary Giles didn’t but has put up signs (some apparently on public right-a-ways).

Other contests also appear lower key in nature. District 3, Republican challenger and constable Andy Modica has spent about $1,000 on electronic contact and canvassing, while Republican incumbent Philip Rodgers has tripled up on that amount, mainly on mail and signage. In District 4, incumbent Republican John Ed Jorden didn’t file nor did his Democrat challenger Donald Stephens, while his Republican opponent appraiser Jack Harvill spent only on push cards.

All in all, if things break right for challengers they could send half of incumbents packing. More likely, at least a couple of new faces will show up on the Jury in 2024.