UPDATE: Rumors circulating that Phelan will step aside to allow Rep. Dustin Burrows to run in his place. 

A week after former governor, GOP presidential hopeful, and U.S. energy secretary Rick Perry told CBS News that incumbent Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan would surely hang on to power, all bets are now off.

A Texas House Republican caucus vote is expected on Saturday, the same weekend of a State Republican Executive Committee meeting in the capital city of Austin.

(The final vote will be on the opening day of the 89th Legislature, Jan. 14, which would require a majority of 76 votes or more. Typically the House floor vote is a formality with few but the staunchest opponents casting nay votes.)

Republican Rep. David Cook, who is usually straight down the middle of his party in terms of scorecard rankings, is the sole challenger from either party against Phelan. Cook has so far garnered 48 commitments from the 150 members of the Legislature and the chamber’s 88 Republicans. According to caucus rules, it takes a three-fifths vote (60 or higher) to clinch the nomination, and ballots are kept secret in a closed-off meeting. His latest commitment was from Rep. Trent Ashby, a former supporter of Phelan’s (as was Cook — more on that shortly).

A quick note about the caucus rules: even they spell out trouble for Speaker Phelan [or his successor]. According to a document released Wednesday, the GOP caucus’s parliamentary procedure committee is proposing a two-term limit for House speakers (Phelan has served two terms) and that there be a Republican speaker pro tem and Republican committee chairmen. This indicates a growing dissatisfaction with the current regime.

According to the Texas Tribune’s analysis of the situation, Cook, now in his sophomore year, had quickly ascended from newbie to carrying a Speaker’s priority bill to reign in George Soros-supported District Attorneys. Cook was even given a seat on the powerhouse Calendars committee — which in and of itself was originally designed to grind any bill submitted by Northern interlopers after the Civil War bill to a pulp. Today, it’s used by House leadership in similar fashion.

A group of around 50 House reformers — from the fiscal hawks and the social right — gathered in September, passing over three known candidates at the time to settle on Cook.

My statement on the Reform Caucus Straw Poll Results: pic.twitter.com/17yWWoHdna

— David Cook (@DavidCookTexas) September 20, 2024

 

“This is not just about one person; it’s about a movement that will reshape Texas for the better,” Cook said, referring to both the power of the Speaker’s office to stymie legislation as well as the centrist flavor of the House.

Phelan, who before his days as a legislator was legislative staff, was not taking this lightly at all. He enlisted former Governor Perry to immediately begin working the back channels in his favor. Perry had assisted Phelan in his re-election bid against Republican challenger David Covey and Alicia Davis (Phelan edged out Covey by under a single percentage point in the Primary Runoff). A small fundraiser was held in Austin featuring Speaker lieutenants and other supporters of the current administration.

“Last session, in argument, was one of the most conservative in Texas history, from the standpoint of legislation that was passed, the tax cuts that were given, and the other issues that they dealt with,” Perry told CBS News on Sunday. Perry chalked up the disagreements to politics as usual, with one group simply wanting their person in power.

Phelan’s conservative opponents, however, have noted the House’s opposition to a much more conservative Senate agenda and its slow-walking of many of Gov. Greg Abbott‘s priority bills — all the while moving heaven and earth to remove opponents such as disgraced House member Bryan Slaton (who was expelled by his peers) and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (who ultimately kept his position after a lengthy impeachment process). Others have pointed out cumbersome and expensive alternatives to conservative agenda items, such as spending the surplus to “buy-down” local taxes and proposing reimbursing public schools for every student lost to school choice (which did not pass last session in the Lone Star State). These were compromises made with the second-largest caucus in the Texas Legislature: The Democratic Party.

Which brings up another issue that is hot with the State Republican Executive Committee, the Texas GOP (also meeting this weekend), and many county parties: opposition to Democratic chairmen.

At one point, there were conservative Democrats to the right of leftmost Republicans, and vice-versa. Having some Democratic Party-affiliated chairs made perfect sense, especially in the not-so-distant past when the divide was largely between rural and urban. Not so much these days, with the party lines and ideologies more clearly divided.

But does the Golden Rule apply if the Dems take back power? Perry pointed out a somber reality: Republicans are not the overwhelming majority in the legislature. In the House, it requires 100 votes to move forward a constitutional amendment, for example.

“That’s not 88,” Perry quipped.

Doing the math further, it seems Phelan [or his successor] would only need 14 more Republicans Saturday on top of the current establishment supporters. If Phelan fails on Saturday, he [or his successor] must immediately rebuild support among his Republican opponents and immediately begin courting Democrats to get to 76 Republicans OR Democrats before mid-January. He may also have any number of new opponents to face, especially now that progressive hardliner Gene Wu is the new head of the Texas Democratic Caucus.

UPDATES:
(11:15 p.m.) Rep. Dustin Burrows has been observed meeting with members of the Texas Democratic House Caucus this evening. Burrows was a top lieutenant of former Speaker Dennis Bonnen and has been considered one of the members next in line to become Speaker should Phelan hang it up. Expect more ninth inning surprises on Friday.